2nd Annual NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge – 2017

Welcome to the NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge!

Enter your Conference Championship Round picks.

(Entries submitted after the start of the game will not be counted)

This competition is sponsored by the Department of Mathematics and the Sport Management Program at Trinity University. The challenge is maintained by the STAT seminar and supports the educational mission of the Oracle rankings project to teach about predictive analytics in sports. Participation is free! 

Results will be updated as we are able to process the results. Games that have not finished or have not been updated are shown in gray.

Week 19 Consensus Picks by Affiliation Season
__Affiliation__ Week PCT Season PCT
Other 57.14% 43% 100% 14% 71% 70.74%
Computer 54.17% 67% 92% 17% 42% 60.86%
Faculty/Staff 50.00% 41% 100% 24% 35% 61.72%
Student 43.75% 0% 88% 25% 62% 64.51%
Alumni 42.31% 35% 92% 12% 31% 62.73%
Week 19 Picks Season
Rk Entry Name Win-Loss Season Rk Season Record Season PCT Playoff Rk Playoff Record Playoff PCT
1 Dale Cochran 4-0 PHI NE JAC MIN 41 153-111 58% 1 7-1 88%
1 NFL Oracle 4-0 PHI NE JAC MIN 9 176-88 67% 2 6-2 75%
17 stella artois 2-2 ATL NE JAC NO 16 170-94 64% 2 6-2 75%
17 Josh Moczygemba 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 1 184-80 70% 4 5-3 62%
3 Jonathan Prescott 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 2 183-81 69% 4 5-3 62%
17 Brent Morgan 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 7 177-87 67% 4 5-3 62%
3 Massey STAT 3-1 PHI NE JAC NO 9 176-88 67% 4 5-3 62%
17 Craig Mills 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 11 175-89 66% 4 5-3 62%
3 Bob Nicholson 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 13 172-92 65% 4 5-3 62%
3 WinPct STAT 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 26 165-99 62% 4 5-3 62%
17 Jim Freeman 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 37 158-89 64% 4 5-3 62%
17 Callum Squires 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 52 146-102 59% 4 5-3 62%
3 Mary Love 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 54 144-120 55% 4 5-3 62%
17 Liza Southwick 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 55 141-75 65% 4 5-3 62%
3 Suzy Gray 3-1 PHI NE JAC NO 58 119-67 64% 4 5-3 62%
17 Block Monoid 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 66 58-30 66% 4 5-3 62%
17 Byron French 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 68 36-33 52% 4 5-3 62%
17 Chris Fanick 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 4 181-83 69% 18 4-4 50%
17 Will Farner 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 4 181-83 69% 18 4-4 50%
46 Tim O’Sullivan 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 6 178-86 67% 18 4-4 50%
46 Keener STAT 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 7 177-87 67% 18 4-4 50%
17 Maddie Heliste 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 12 173-91 66% 18 4-4 50%
3 Jeremy Lynch 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 15 171-93 65% 18 4-4 50%
3 Biased Voter STAT 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 18 169-95 64% 18 4-4 50%
3 Colley STAT 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 18 169-95 64% 18 4-4 50%
3 Oracle/Wins STAT 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 22 168-96 64% 18 4-4 50%
17 Harry Wallace 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 24 166-98 63% 18 4-4 50%
17 Best OFF STAT 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 26 165-99 62% 18 4-4 50%
46 Shawn Sunday 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 30 163-100 62% 18 4-4 50%
17 Damon Bullis 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 41 153-79 66% 18 4-4 50%
46 Susan Coker 1-3 PHI TEN PIT NO 43 152-96 61% 18 4-4 50%
17 Deven Nongbri 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 44 151-94 62% 18 4-4 50%
17 Dylan Holland 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 45 150-114 57% 18 4-4 50%
17 Matt Sidhom 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 45 150-98 60% 18 4-4 50%
17 Manny Gonzalez 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 49 148-100 60% 18 4-4 50%
17 Samantha Gonzalez 2-2 ATL NE JAC NO 65 85-43 66% 18 4-4 50%
17 Michael Dennis 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 16 170-94 64% 37 3-5 38%
17 Brian Miceli 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 18 169-95 64% 37 3-5 38%
46 Mitchell Kight 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 18 169-95 64% 37 3-5 38%
46 Chris DiPaolo 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 23 167-97 63% 37 3-5 38%
17 Davis King 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 26 165-99 62% 37 3-5 38%
46 David Wood 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 29 164-100 62% 37 3-5 38%
46 Adam Mueller 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 30 163-85 66% 37 3-5 38%
68 Ben Newhouse 0-4 ATL TEN PIT NO 30 163-101 62% 37 3-5 38%
46 Kevin Davis 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 30 163-87 65% 37 3-5 38%
17 Valerie Schweers 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 30 163-101 62% 37 3-5 38%
46 PageRank STAT 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 36 160-104 61% 37 3-5 38%
17 Ghost of Tony Romo 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 37 158-90 64% 37 3-5 38%
46 Steven Hargis 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 39 156-92 63% 37 3-5 38%
46 OFF Yds STAT 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 40 154-110 58% 37 3-5 38%
3 Jordan Bruce 3-1 ATL NE JAC MIN 50 147-81 64% 37 3-1 75%
3 Jacob Tingle 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 50 147-81 64% 37 3-1 75%
17 DEF Yds STAT 2-2 PHI NE PIT NO 56 133-131 50% 37 3-5 38%
3 Heather H. Smith 3-1 PHI NE JAC NO 57 126-118 52% 37 3-1 75%
46 Britni Ridolfi 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 61 113-119 49% 37 3-5 38%
3 Brittany Haby 3-1 PHI NE PIT MIN 69 32-19 63% 37 3-1 75%
17 Mark Montalbano 2-2 ATL NE PIT MIN 3 182-78 70% 57 2-2 50%
17 Michele Johnson 2-2 ATL NE JAC NO 24 166-98 63% 57 2-6 25%
17 Jesse Gamble 2-2 ATL NE JAC NO 58 119-66 64% 57 2-2 50%
46 Paul Willstrop 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 64 99-57 63% 57 2-6 25%
46 Marc Goodrich 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 13 172-88 66% 61 1-3 25%
46 Chris Robinson 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 30 163-97 63% 61 1-3 25%
46 Enrique Alcoreza 1-3 ATL TEN JAC NO 45 150-107 58% 61 1-3 25%
46 Tanner Kohfield 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 45 150-79 66% 61 1-3 25%
46 Taylor Stakes 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 53 145-101 59% 61 1-3 25%
68 Best DEF STAT 0-4 ATL TEN PIT NO 60 116-148 44% 61 1-7 12%
46 Kevin McIntyre 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 62 109-76 59% 61 1-3 25%
46 Hugh Daschbach 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 63 102-82 55% 61 1-3 25%
46 Nic Rodriguez 1-3 ATL NE PIT NO 67 38-29 57% 61 1-3 25%

When you enter your picks, you will be automatically added to receive a reminder for your picks every week a few days before the first game of the week.

Posted in NFL, NFL Challenge | Comments Off on 2nd Annual NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge – 2017

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 17

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 17

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 13.7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 21.6%
2 NE 12.7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15.4%
3 MIN 12.6 100.0% 100.0% 97.2% 7.4%
4 PIT 12.6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.2%
5 NO 1 11.7 100.0% 77.2% 0.0% 6.5%
6 CAR 1 11.6 100.0% 22.8% 2.8% 1.8%
7 LAR 11.7 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 18.0%
8 KC 2 9.7 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2.0%
9 JAC 1 10.6 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.9%
10 ATL 1 9.4 52.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
11 SEA 1 9.7 42.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
12 BUF 1 8.7 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
13 BAL 3 9.7 92.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
14 DAL 1 8.3 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
15 DET 1 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 LAC 2 8.6 32.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
17 TEN 2 8.4 43.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
18 WAS 2 7.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 MIA 2 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 GB 1 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 ARI 1 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 OAK 1 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 CHI 2 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 NYJ 1 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CIN 1 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 DEN 2 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 SF 1 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 TB 1 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 HOU 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 IND 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 NYG 2.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 0.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Sun Dec 31 2017(9) JAC @ (17) TEN(9) JAC65.38%
Sun Dec 31 2017(6) CAR @ (10) ATL(6) CAR55.29%
Sun Dec 31 2017(25) CIN @ (13) BAL(13) BAL66.67%
Sun Dec 31 2017(18) WAS @ (31) NYG(18) WAS66.40%
Sun Dec 31 2017(20) GB @ (15) DET(15) DET53.82%
Sun Dec 31 2017(23) CHI @ (3) MIN(3) MIN65.33%
Sun Dec 31 2017(32) CLE @ (4) PIT(4) PIT84.84%
Sun Dec 31 2017(5) NO @ (28) TB(5) NO73.36%
Sun Dec 31 2017(29) HOU @ (30) IND(29) HOU66.59%
Sun Dec 31 2017(14) DAL @ (1) PHI(1) PHI60.04%
Sun Dec 31 2017(12) BUF @ (19) MIA(12) BUF52.66%
Sun Dec 31 2017(24) NYJ @ (2) NE(2) NE70.49%
Sun Dec 31 2017(27) SF @ (7) LAR(7) LAR74.01%
Sun Dec 31 2017(22) OAK @ (16) LAC(16) LAC59.37%
Sun Dec 31 2017(21) ARI @ (11) SEA(11) SEA60.69%
Sun Dec 31 2017(8) KC @ (26) DEN(8) KC61.62%
Posted in NFL | Comments Off on 2017 NFL Oracle – Week 17

2017 Challenge – Week 16 Results

Week 16 Consensus Picks by Affiliation Season
__Affiliation__ Week PCT Season PCT
Other 79.17% 89% 78% 22% 100% 100% 89% 100% 67% 89% 100% 89% 44% 89% 22% 89% 100% 69.48%
Alumni 76.16% 96% 96% 15% 93% 89% 78% 96% 74% 93% 81% 100% 7% 78% 26% 96% 100% 64.51%
Student 75.00% 90% 100% 10% 100% 100% 100% 90% 70% 80% 80% 90% 20% 80% 10% 100% 80% 65.22%
Computer 75.00% 75% 83% 0% 83% 92% 92% 75% 92% 100% 83% 92% 25% 75% 58% 83% 92% 62.26%
Faculty/Staff 75.00% 88% 88% 6% 88% 88% 100% 88% 59% 71% 100% 94% 47% 76% 24% 94% 88% 63.23%
Week 16 Picks Season
Rk __Entry_Name__ Win-Loss Rk Record PCT
18 Mark Montalbano 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 1 171-69 71%
18 Jonathan Prescott 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 2 168-72 70%
18 Will Farner 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 2 168-72 70%
4 Keener STAT 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 4 167-73 70%
4 Chris Fanick 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 5 166-74 69%
1 Josh Moczygemba 15-1 BAL MIN CIN LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 5 166-74 69%
4 Massey STAT 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 7 164-76 68%
40 NFL Oracle 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 8 163-77 68%
4 Brent Morgan 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC TEN CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI SEA PIT PHI 9 162-78 68%
40 Craig Mills 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 9 162-78 68%
40 Marc Goodrich 12-4 BAL GB DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 9 162-78 68%
18 Maddie Heliste 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 12 161-79 67%
18 Christina Cooley 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 13 160-80 67%
4 Tim O’Sullivan 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 13 160-80 67%
55 Brian Miceli 11-5 BAL GB DET NYJ KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF NYG DAL PIT PHI 15 159-81 66%
18 Douglas Dellmore 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 15 159-81 66%
4 Biased Voter STAT 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 17 158-82 66%
4 Colley STAT 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 17 158-82 66%
18 Jeremy Lynch 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 17 158-82 66%
18 Mitchell Kight 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 17 158-82 66%
40 Dillon Wolf 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 17 158-82 66%
4 Bryan Fowler 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 22 157-83 65%
18 Eric Suhler 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 22 157-82 66%
4 Oracle/Wins STAT 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 22 157-83 65%
40 Bob Nicholson 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 22 157-83 65%
55 Ryan Reynolds 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS ATL CHI NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 22 157-83 65%
40 Chris DiPaolo 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CLE NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 27 156-84 65%
18 Michael Dennis 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 27 156-84 65%
40 Chris Robinson 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 29 155-85 65%
18 Davis King 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 29 155-85 65%
18 Harry Wallace 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 29 155-85 65%
18 Michele Johnson 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 29 155-85 65%
40 Ghost of Tony Romo 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 29 155-85 65%
55 Johnny Biology 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN ATL CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 34 154-86 64%
55 stella artois 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC KC TEN CAR WAS NO CLE NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 34 154-86 64%
18 Best OFF STAT 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 34 154-86 64%
4 Tom Tegtmeyer 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 34 154-86 64%
55 Ben Newhouse 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC KC TEN CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 38 153-87 64%
1 David Wood 15-1 BAL MIN CIN LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 38 153-87 64%
40 Jim Freeman 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS ATL CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 38 153-86 64%
63 Steven Hargis 10-6 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR TB WAS NO CHI NE JAC NYG DAL PIT OAK 38 153-87 64%
40 Sam Hyden 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 38 153-87 64%
18 WinPct STAT 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 38 153-87 64%
18 PageRank STAT 13-3 BAL MIN DET NYJ KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 44 152-88 63%
40 Valerie Schweers 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE SF NYG DAL PIT PHI 44 152-88 63%
4 Adam Mueller 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 46 151-73 67%
1 Kevin Davis 15-1 BAL MIN CIN LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 46 151-75 67%
18 Damon Bullis 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI BUF SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 48 149-75 67%
63 Shawn Sunday 10-6 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CLE NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 49 148-91 62%
55 Susan Coker 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC KC TEN CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 49 148-92 62%
63 Jordan Bethea 10-6 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN ATL CHI NE SF NYG DAL PIT OAK 51 145-95 60%
18 Jacob Tingle 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN ATL CHI NE SF ARI SEA PIT PHI 52 144-80 64%
18 Braxton Bartlett 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC MIA LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 53 143-81 64%
40 Tanner Kohfield 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CLE NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 54 141-68 67%
18 TD Gunslinger 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC TEN CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 54 141-99 59%
71 Enrique Alcoreza 8-8 IND MIN CIN LAC KC LAR TB DEN NO CLE BUF JAC ARI DAL PIT OAK 56 140-97 59%
66 Dylan Holland 9-7 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN ATL CHI NE JAC NYG DAL HOU PHI 56 140-100 58%
55 OFF Yds STAT 11-5 IND GB DET LAC KC LAR TB WAS NO CHI NE SF NYG SEA PIT PHI 58 139-101 58%
18 Arastu Jahanbin 13-3 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 59 138-72 66%
66 Dale Cochran 9-7 IND MIN DET LAC MIA LAR CAR DEN ATL CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 59 138-102 58%
4 Matt Sidhom 14-2 BAL MIN CIN LAC KC LAR TB WAS NO CHI NE SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 59 138-86 62%
4 Manny Gonzalez 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 62 137-87 61%
40 Patrick Pringle 12-4 BAL MIN DET NYJ KC TEN CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI SEA PIT PHI 63 136-72 65%
4 Taylor Stakes 14-2 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE SF ARI SEA PIT PHI 64 135-91 60%
66 Callum Squires 9-7 IND MIN DET LAC MIA LAR CAR WAS NO CLE NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 65 133-91 59%
71 Tessa Uviedo 8-8 IND GB DET LAC KC TEN CAR DEN ATL CHI NE SF ARI DAL HOU PHI 65 133-91 59%
55 Mary Love 11-5 BAL MIN DET LAC MIA LAR CAR WAS ATL CHI NE JAC ARI SEA HOU PHI 67 132-108 55%
66 DEF Yds STAT 9-7 IND MIN DET LAC KC LAR TB WAS NO CLE NE SF NYG DAL HOU PHI 68 122-118 51%
40 Suzy Gray 12-4 BAL GB CIN LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 69 114-64 64%
74 Best DEF STAT 3-13 IND GB DET NYJ MIA TEN TB WAS NO CLE BUF SF NYG DAL HOU OAK 70 106-134 44%
73 Nicole Fratto 6-10 IND GB DET NYJ KC LAR TB DEN ATL CHI NE SF NYG DAL PIT OAK 71 100-93 52%
66 Paul Willstrop 9-7 BAL MIN DET NYJ KC LAR CAR DEN NO CLE NE JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 72 90-42 68%
18 Samantha Gonzalez 13-3 BAL MIN CIN LAC MIA LAR CAR WAS NO CHI NE JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 73 81-39 68%
40 Block Monoid 12-4 BAL MIN DET LAC KC LAR CAR DEN NO CHI BUF SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 74 43-21 67%

When you enter your picks, you will be automatically added to receive a reminder for your picks every week a few days before the first game of the week.

Posted in NFL, NFL Challenge | Comments Off on 2017 Challenge – Week 16 Results

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 16

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 16

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 1 13.3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 21.2%
2 NE 1 12.3 100.0% 100.0% 82.5% 13.8%
3 MIN 1 12.3 100.0% 100.0% 83.6% 7.4%
4 PIT 3 12.3 100.0% 100.0% 72.3% 6.3%
5 CAR 11.3 94.4% 27.3% 8.2% 2.3%
6 NO 11.3 94.9% 60.6% 3.0% 5.9%
7 LAR 11.3 98.2% 97.2% 5.2% 18.0%
8 JAC 11.3 100.0% 95.7% 45.2% 15.8%
9 ATL 9.7 64.3% 12.1% 0.0% 1.1%
10 KC 1 9.3 94.8% 94.8% 0.0% 2.3%
11 BUF 2 9.0 63.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
12 SEA 2 9.0 10.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2%
13 DAL 6 9.0 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
14 DET 2 9.3 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
15 TEN 3 8.7 53.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.7%
16 BAL 1 9.3 69.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1%
17 MIA 3 6.7 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 LAC 8.3 16.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.3%
19 GB 2 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 WAS 3 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 OAK 1 6.7 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 1 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 NYJ 1 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 DEN 1 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CHI 1 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CIN 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 TB 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 SF 1 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 HOU 1 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 IND 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 NYG 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 0.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The NFL Oracle was 12-4 (75.00%) during week 16. Here is how we did predicting each game:

[89.72%]: (30) Indianapolis Colts 16 @ (16) Baltimore Ravens 23
[69.63%]: (3) Minnesota Vikings 16 @ (19) Green Bay Packers 0
[69.88%]: (7) Los Angeles Rams 27 @ (15) Tennessee Titans 23
[74.45%]: (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 @ (5) Carolina Panthers 22
[63.28%]: (18) Los Angeles Chargers 14 @ (23) New York Jets 7
[65.58%]: (14) Detroit Lions 17 @ (26) Cincinnati Bengals 26
[66.19%]: (11) Buffalo Bills 16 @ (2) New England Patriots 37
[61.98%]: (9) Atlanta Falcons 13 @ (6) New Orleans Saints 23
[62.17%]: (17) Miami Dolphins 13 @ (10) Kansas City Chiefs 29
[98.47%]: (32) Cleveland Browns 3 @ (25) Chicago Bears 20
[53.83%]: (24) Denver Broncos 11 @ (20) Washington Redskins 27
[85.06%]: (8) Jacksonville Jaguars 33 @ (28) San Francisco 49ers 44
[65.53%]: (31) New York Giants 0 @ (22) Arizona Cardinals 23
[54.02%]: (12) Seattle Seahawks 21 @ (13) Dallas Cowboys 12
[66.69%]: (4) Pittsburgh Steelers 34 @ (29) Houston Texans 6
[73.86%]: (21) Oakland Raiders 10 @ (1) Philadelphia Eagles 19

Posted in NFL | Comments Off on 2017 NFL Oracle – Week 16

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 15

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 15

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PIT 2 12.6 100.0% 100.0% 87.4% 7.1%
2 PHI 2 13.0 100.0% 100.0% 97.6% 27.5%
3 NE 1 12.0 99.9% 98.1% 72.6% 12.9%
4 MIN 3 12.0 99.9% 98.3% 74.7% 7.5%
5 CAR 2 10.9 87.3% 30.7% 10.4% 2.5%
6 NO 1 11.0 92.5% 59.3% 7.0% 6.1%
7 LAR 1 11.0 90.1% 78.3% 9.2% 10.8%
8 JAC 10.9 99.8% 78.3% 39.0% 15.8%
9 ATL 2 9.4 51.1% 10.1% 0.6% 0.8%
10 SEA 9.3 34.7% 21.7% 0.5% 0.7%
11 KC 2 8.7 59.1% 52.3% 0.1% 1.4%
12 TEN 3 9.3 76.2% 21.7% 0.6% 1.3%
13 BUF 1 8.6 45.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.7%
14 MIA 6 7.0 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
15 BAL 3 8.9 56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%
16 DET 1 9.0 22.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3%
17 GB 1 8.0 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1%
18 LAC 1 8.9 52.8% 45.5% 0.0% 1.3%
19 DAL 1 8.6 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
20 OAK 5 7.0 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
21 ARI 2 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 NYJ 6.0 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 WAS 2 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 CHI 1 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 DEN 3 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CIN 2 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 TB 1 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 HOU 1 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 SF 2 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 IND 1 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 NYG 1 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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2017 NFL Oracle – Week 14

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 14

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 MIN 2 12.6 99.9% 99.6% 82.9% 8.0%
2 NE 2 12.6 99.9% 99.6% 90.1% 19.3%
3 PIT 1 12.0 99.9% 94.4% 75.1% 6.3%
4 PHI 3 12.3 99.9% 99.6% 58.0% 17.1%
5 NO 11.6 97.6% 86.8% 22.1% 7.0%
6 LAR 1 11.6 97.4% 76.7% 33.3% 20.4%
7 CAR 1 10.3 74.7% 8.7% 1.4% 1.4%
8 JAC 1 10.6 98.3% 59.4% 29.0% 10.0%
9 TEN 2 10.0 88.0% 40.6% 4.1% 1.8%
10 SEA 3 10.0 68.0% 23.3% 2.0% 1.5%
11 ATL 3 8.7 27.7% 4.5% 0.3% 0.4%
12 BAL 3 9.6 81.6% 5.6% 1.5% 3.9%
13 KC 3 8.6 61.6% 60.1% 0.0% 1.3%
14 BUF 2 8.3 22.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
15 OAK 1 7.4 13.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.2%
16 GB 1 7.7 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
17 DET 3 8.6 18.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
18 DAL 2 8.0 9.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
19 LAC 8.3 30.2% 27.1% 0.0% 0.5%
20 MIA 1 6.4 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 WAS 3 7.3 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 NYJ 2 6.7 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 ARI 1 6.7 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 CIN 1 6.4 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CHI 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 TB 1 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 HOU 1 6.0 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 DEN 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

>>

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2017 NFL Oracle – Week 13

It was another strong showing for Oracle, posting a lovely 13-3 projection mark for Week 12 of the 2017 NFL season. Let’s inspect those three incorrect picks to see what happened, beginning with the (20) Dallas Cowboys. In this Thanksgiving-day match-up against the (19) Los Angeles Chargers, America’s team only had about a 5% edge, indicative of a high-likelihood that this game would come down to the wire. If you watched this game, you’d have guessed that the Chargers were the team that had been favored, and by a much larger margin than 5%; Los Angeles made short work of Dallas, coasting to a 28-6 win in Thursday’s Game 2. The next incorrect pick came with the (10) Kansas City Chiefs, a team that started the season as one of the hottest in the league, until the train started to come off the tracks in Week 11 with an overtime loss to the (30) New York Giants. In Week 12, the Chiefs were favored to pick up speed once again against the (12) Buffalo Bills, another team that has been very hot and then very cold. Unfortunately for Kansas City, Week 12 saw the train completely derail as they were forced to accept a consecutive close-loss. Like the Cowboys-Chargers game, the Chiefs-Bills game was anticipated to be close (Kansas City favored by 8%), and this was certainly far more competitive than the dismal performance by Dallas, but the fact remains that Oracle came up on the losing side. The third and final incorrect pick came with the former AFC-favorite to make the Super Bowl (spoiler alert) in the (9) Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville would be facing a banged-up (22) Arizona Cardinals team, so Oracle treated the Jaguars as the hands-down favorite with 78% odds of winning, the best odds given to any team in Week 12. This game turned into a blow-for-blow battle, culminating in a career-long 57-yard field goal by Arizona kicker Phil Dawson as time expired, providing his team a 27-24 victory.

After a week of these tightly-played football games, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 13

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 13.3 100.0% 99.9% 89.2% 26.3%
2 PIT 2 12.0 99.5% 94.7% 79.1% 8.1%
3 MIN 2 12.3 99.2% 97.0% 72.0% 7.4%
4 NE 1 12.3 99.5% 95.3% 84.6% 18.9%
5 NO 3 11.2 94.5% 68.6% 15.2% 6.8%
6 CAR 10.6 82.4% 25.4% 8.3% 2.2%
7 LAR 2 10.9 89.3% 74.1% 12.9% 11.0%
8 ATL 2 9.1 41.5% 6.0% 1.5% 0.8%
9 JAC 2 10.3 94.5% 57.1% 25.2% 9.5%
10 KC 2 9.2 77.6% 74.4% 2.9% 2.1%
11 TEN 9.7 78.9% 42.3% 4.1% 1.6%
12 BUF 2 8.6 42.8% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8%
13 SEA 9.4 45.0% 25.3% 0.8% 0.8%
14 DET 2 9.0 30.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.4%
15 BAL 1 8.9 62.5% 5.2% 1.9% 2.1%
16 OAK 2 7.1 9.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.1%
17 GB 2 7.4 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
18 WAS 2 7.7 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
19 LAC 3 7.9 24.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.6%
20 DAL 3 7.6 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
21 MIA 2 5.7 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 5 7.0 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
23 CIN 3 7.1 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
24 NYJ 3 6.0 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CHI 1 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 HOU 1 6.3 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
27 TB 4 5.7 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 DEN 5.4 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 4.8 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Not much has changed positioning-wise as far as the playoff-picture is concerned. As it stands, there are six teams that all have greater than 90% chances of making the playoffs, with one additional team just below that threshold. None of the projected division winners have changed since last week, although there continues to be shake-up in the Wild Card hunt. As a quick refresher, the Week 12 Wild Card projections had the (6) Carolina Panthers and (14) Detroit Lions out of the NFC, and the (11) Tennessee Titans and (15) Baltimore Ravens out of the AFC. Just like the previous week, the top Wild Card team in each conference has remained the same, but the second Wild Card has been claimed by a new team in the NFC. The (13) Seattle Seahawks have remained relevant, keeping their playoff chances alive at 45%. Although the division-rival (7) Los Angeles Rams have the clear edge at the moment, the Seahawks are at least keeping things interesting. The Titans and Ravens are still the top-two Wild Card teams in the AFC at present, with playoff chances of 79% and 63%, respectively. What’s interesting is that the Titans have a marginally better chance of making the playoffs than the Chiefs in the AFC, despite the fact that the Chiefs remain the favorite to win the AFC West and the Titans aren’t even projected to win their division, the AFC South. This tells us that it is more important to the Chiefs to win their division than it is to the Titans; Tennessee has remained competitive enough not only in the AFC South, but in the conference overall, to where they could capture a playoff-berth without having to worry about surpassing Jacksonville.

Which brings us to the Super Bowl projections. We kind of spoiled things earlier by suggesting that there has been some changes to the projected Super Bowl participants. While the (1) Philadelphia Eagles are the outright favorite in the NFC, the Jaguars loss to the Cardinals was a devastating blow to their odds of making the Super Bowl. In their stead, the (4) New England Patriots have quietly become the team to beat in the AFC, which shouldn’t be surprising to any of us purely because of the reputation the Patriots have built since the Brady-Belichick era began. The Eagles odds stand at roughly 26% compared to the Patriots’ 19%, the closest-competitors being the Rams and Jaguars, respectively.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 13 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing game of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 13

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 30 2017(18) WAS @ (20) DAL(20) DAL56.08%
Sun Dec 03 2017(10) KC @ (24) NYJ(10) KC62.86%
Sun Dec 03 2017(26) HOU @ (11) TEN(11) TEN51.99%
Sun Dec 03 2017(14) DET @ (15) BAL(15) BAL58.15%
Sun Dec 03 2017(27) TB @ (17) GB(17) GB55.17%
Sun Dec 03 2017(29) IND @ (9) JAC(9) JAC80.17%
Sun Dec 03 2017(31) SF @ (25) CHI(25) CHI66.88%
Sun Dec 03 2017(4) NE @ (12) BUF(4) NE63.41%
Sun Dec 03 2017(28) DEN @ (21) MIA(28) DEN53.67%
Sun Dec 03 2017(6) CAR @ (5) NO(5) NO56.26%
Sun Dec 03 2017(3) MIN @ (8) ATL(3) MIN59.25%
Sun Dec 03 2017(32) CLE @ (19) LAC(19) LAC80.97%
Sun Dec 03 2017(30) NYG @ (16) OAK(16) OAK63.32%
Sun Dec 03 2017(7) LAR @ (22) ARI(7) LAR74.79%
Sun Dec 03 2017(1) PHI @ (13) SEA(1) PHI64.48%
Mon Dec 04 2017(2) PIT @ (23) CIN(2) PIT67.12%

With the Thursday Night Football game having already been played for Week 13, we are proud to inform you that Oracle has a 100% prediction rate thus far in the week, having given the Cowboys a 6% edge over the (18) Washington Redskins. The 38-14 victory marked the first time Dallas scored double-digit points since Week 9 against the Chiefs, and the fewest points allowed since Week 7 against the (31) San Francisco 49ers.

Impact game of the Week: DET @ BAL
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds across the largest number of teams.

If DET wins If BAL wins
DAL 6.17% DAL 7.54%
BUF 43.16% BUF 38.13%
BAL 70.21% BAL 87.61%
TEN 73.14% TEN 67.37%
DET 35.82% DET 14.93%
ATL 43.11% ATL 51.02%

Coming into this game, the Oracle is giving the edge to the Ravens at 58% over the Lions. We’ve already shown you that Baltimore is projected to claim the second Wild Card in the AFC with their playoff chances at about 63%. In contrast, the Lions just lost their footing for the second Wild Card in the NFC, dropping their playoff chances to 31%. Unfortunately for Detroit, at this point in the season it will be hard to manage a comeback with odds so low, represented by the fact that a win in this game would only raise their playoff chances 5%. On the other hand, a loss would expedite and nearly ensure a missed opportunity to make the playoffs in 2017. As for Baltimore, they are in a very good place, as even a loss would keep them above 70% playoff chances, likely enough to keep them in the second Wild Card at the very least. Buffalo will naturally hope for the NFC Lions to beat the AFC Ravens, as doing so would give the Bills a better chance of making up ground in the AFC Wild Card hunt, the opposite being true for the (8) Atlanta Falcons in the NFC. Beyond that, the Titans would certainly prefer a Lions victory in order to enlarge the gap between the second Wild Card team and themselves.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

If HOU wins Curr. Odds If TEN wins
HOU 3.36% HOU 1.80% HOU 0.01%
TEN 52.41% TEN 78.80% TEN 85.38%

In both of the selected Swing games this week, the focus is on the ability for one of the teams (who already knows their fate) to play spoiler for the opposing team. For the first game, we’ve chosen the (26) Houston Texans against the Titans. In this case, the emphasis is not on Texans and their miniscule odds of making the playoffs, but the already-discussed Titans. Tennessee has a legitimate shot to contend for the AFC South Division title, but at the very least they are in the strongest position to earn a Wild Card. Beating the division-rival Texans would go a long way to solidifying the Titans in that first Wild Card spot, and leave them in a solid position to fight for the division lead based off how the Jaguars perform. Should the Titans blow this opportunity, they may find themselves back in the trenches with a handful of other teams, all battling for a chance to keep their season alive.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

If PHI wins Curr. Odds If SEA wins
PHI 100.00% PHI 99.98% PHI 99.98%
SEA 24.99% SEA 44.80% SEA 57.92%

Whereas Houston’s fate is effectively sealed such that they will have to wait for 2018 to fight for a playoff spot, Philadelphia is in the opposite position: they have played their way into a very comfortable and sizable lead such that they can look forward to the 2017 playoffs. As such, even if the Eagles lose this game against the Seahawks, their playoff chances will remain unaffected. The same cannot be said for Seattle. The Seahawks are presently on the outside looking in, but not by much. Beating the best team in the NFL could give them a jolt that would make them a larger and more serious player in the NFC Wild Card hunt, whereas a loss (which Oracle believes will happen) would be one step above a death sentence to the Seahawks 2017 campaign.

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell.

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2017 NFL Oracle – Week 12

There were plenty of good football games to choose between during Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season. Oracle ended up going 9-5 this past week, as some of those games had wild results. Take the (9) Los Angeles Rams: this was the team we’ve been telling you for weeks now is the favorite to not only win their division, but also represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Last week, they were favored at 58% over the (5) Minnesota Vikings. Now, you can quickly see this was a powerhouse match-up between two top-10 teams trending in the right direction. But even that wouldn’t have suggested a 24-7 victory for the Vikings, emphasis being placed on the margin of victory as opposed to the winning team. Turn your attention to the (8) Kansas City Chiefs against the (30) New York Giants, one of the league’s best against one of the league’s worst. Piece of cake, to the point Oracle gave Kansas City 75% odds! The end result? No touchdowns were scored throughout the entirety of this game, a game that was forced into overtime until the Giants kicked nailed a game-winning field goal. Of the many cliché sayings out there, at this time we will use the following: “it’s not the best team that wins, but the team that plays the best who wins on any given day.” So congratulations, Giants.

After a week of these tightly-played football games, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 12

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 1 12.9 99.7% 98.4% 81.6% 25.7%
2 NO 1 11.6 96.2% 75.2% 34.0% 10.9%
3 NE 1 11.9 99.1% 95.6% 72.6% 11.8%
4 PIT 2 11.6 99.4% 94.4% 62.9% 7.2%
5 MIN 11.9 97.1% 87.2% 60.5% 6.8%
6 CAR 3 10.3 74.9% 20.2% 7.7% 2.0%
7 JAC 2 10.9 98.0% 74.3% 44.4% 14.5%
8 KC 1 9.9 90.5% 87.1% 14.2% 2.9%
9 LAR 1 10.6 85.6% 78.2% 12.4% 10.8%
10 ATL 2 8.7 31.3% 4.6% 1.4% 0.5%
11 TEN 1 9.3 72.5% 24.7% 3.5% 1.4%
12 DET 3 9.3 48.1% 11.9% 1.6% 0.9%
13 SEA 2 8.7 30.1% 21.4% 0.5% 0.7%
14 BUF 8.0 33.1% 4.1% 0.9% 0.6%
15 GB 2 7.7 8.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2%
16 BAL 5 8.6 59.7% 5.5% 1.5% 1.9%
17 DAL 1 8.6 22.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4%
18 OAK 1 6.7 7.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1%
19 MIA 1 6.1 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
20 WAS 1 7.3 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
21 NYJ 1 6.4 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
22 LAC 3 7.3 15.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.2%
23 TB 4 6.1 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 CHI 2 6.0 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 HOU 1 6.7 8.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2%
26 CIN 2 6.4 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
27 ARI 4 6.1 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
28 DEN 4 5.7 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 5.1 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 2.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Whereas Week 11 witness little-to-no movement within the top-10, Week 12 was the exact opposite; only one team within the top-10 did not move one way or another in the rankings (the Vikings). (1) Philadelphia Eagles continue to fight for that top ranking, with the relatively newer competitor in the (2) New Orleans Saints, compared to the Chiefs in weeks past. (3) New England Patriots and (4) Pittsburgh Steelers continue their push toward the top, while Wild Card teams like the (6) Carolina Panthers need to right ship, and fast.

Using Oracle’s projection data, the presently-anticipated division winners are as follows:

Patriots (AFC East), Chiefs (AFC West), Steelers (AFC North), (7) Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South), Eagles (NFC East), Rams (NFC West), Vikings (NFC North), and Saints (NFC South). All familiar faces. Of those teams, the Jaguars have the closest divisional competitor in the (11) Tennessee Titans, as there is only a 49.6% spread between the two teams. We say “only” and yet that’s a large number, but the reasoning follows this line of logic: there can only be one division winner per division, so the greater one team’s chances are of winning that particular division, the smaller the other teams’ chances are within that division. Another way to look at this is as follows: the Jaguars have roughly 74% odds to win the AFC South, while the Titans have about 25%. Add the two figures up, and you get 99%, which means that there is a 1% chance the AFC South Champion will not be one of those two teams. With that in mind, no other division leader faces as close a threat as Jacksonville, keeping in mind “close” is relative.

Looking at the Wild Cards, a week ago it was the Panthers and (13) Seattle Seahawks in the NFC, and the Titans and (14) Buffalo Bills in the AFC. As of this morning, the second wild card in each conference has a new place-holder: the (12) Detroit Lions in the NFC and the (16) Baltimore Ravens in the AFC. We told you in Week 11 about the dance the Ravens were playing with the Bills; with Buffalo’s 54-24 implosion last week against the (22) Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore was able to take over that wild card, now boasting nearly 60% odds to make the playoffs. The Bills are still the nearest threat, but they fell from grace to 33% odds of making the playoffs. The Seahawks and the Lions each played extremely close games in their respective match-ups, both coming down to the wire and ending a three-point spread. Unfortunately for Seattle, they were on the lesser-of-two ends against the (10) Atlanta Falcons, dropping their odds of making the playoffs to 30%. To balance the scale, Detroit’s narrow win over the (24) Chicago Bears upped their odds to 48%, by no means secure, but certainly better than the Falcons and Seahawks who are having to look up at the NFC Wild Card currently.

For arguably the most interesting part, let’s look at the Super Bowl odds. Earlier we mentioned how we had been singing the praises of the Rams, particularly as they were the NFC-favorite for the Super Bowl. Until now. The Rams odds sank to about 11%, now tied with the Saints. However, the two teams aren’t neck-and-neck for first in this race. That position belongs to the undeterred Eagles, who now have better than 25% odds of making the Super Bowl! Anything can happen once playoffs begin, but for the time being, Philadelphia is giving no reason to doubt them. In the AFC, Jacksonville remains the favorite with New England hot on their tail, both teams treading water from last week with regards to their Super Bowl odds.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 12 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing game of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 12

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 23 2017(5) MIN @ (12) DET(5) MIN60.37%
Thu Nov 23 2017(22) LAC @ (17) DAL(17) DAL55.50%
Thu Nov 23 2017(30) NYG @ (20) WAS(20) WAS59.66%
Sun Nov 26 2017(24) CHI @ (1) PHI(1) PHI70.87%
Sun Nov 26 2017(32) CLE @ (26) CIN(26) CIN71.40%
Sun Nov 26 2017(23) TB @ (10) ATL(10) ATL58.74%
Sun Nov 26 2017(14) BUF @ (8) KC(8) KC58.16%
Sun Nov 26 2017(19) MIA @ (3) NE(3) NE72.56%
Sun Nov 26 2017(6) CAR @ (21) NYJ(6) CAR62.61%
Sun Nov 26 2017(11) TEN @ (29) IND(11) TEN70.60%
Sun Nov 26 2017(13) SEA @ (31) SF(13) SEA74.47%
Sun Nov 26 2017(2) NO @ (9) LAR(9) LAR50.42%
Sun Nov 26 2017(7) JAC @ (27) ARI(7) JAC77.74%
Sun Nov 26 2017(28) DEN @ (18) OAK(18) OAK53.03%
Sun Nov 26 2017(15) GB @ (4) PIT(4) PIT62.74%
Mon Nov 27 2017(25) HOU @ (16) BAL(16) BAL57.56%

Impact game of the Week: MIN @ DET
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If MIN wins If DET wins
DAL 19.67% DAL 14.83%
DET 30.19% DET 64.18%
MIN 99.36% MIN 93.14%
ATL 31.38% ATL 25.80%
CAR 74.92% CAR 70.34%
SEA 37.35% SEA 32.66%

We’ve already done an introduction to both of the teams participating in this NFC North match-up. For what it’s worth, the Vikings have a two-game lead over the Lions in the division, so no matter how this game plays out, their positioning will not change. As things currently stand, Minnesota is essentially a go for making the playoffs, as a loss to the Lions here would still only drop their playoff chances to 93%. As such, a win for Detroit is far more important than it would be for Minnesota; the Lions could have a 34% swing in their playoff chances depending on the outcome of this game. A win would likely keep Detroit in one of the two wild card spots, while a loss could drop them into the mix with Atlanta and Seattle, assuming those two teams remain where they are currently. Which is why you see the odds for the Falcons, Seahawks, and Panthers in this table. The former duo would love to see a Vikings win because they’re looking up at the Lions, while the latter would love to see a Vikings win because they’re looking down (not too far) at the Lions.

Swing game of the Week:
This is the game where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

If HOU wins Curr. Odds If BAL wins
HOU 21.47% HOU 7.81% HOU 2.54%
BAL 53.96% BAL 59.38% BAL 87.74%

For back-to-back weeks, we’re giving you the Monday Night Football game. The (25) Houston Texans belong to the AFC South, the division we discussed earlier where any team besides the Jaguars and Titans – the Texans and (29) Indianapolis Colts – have a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Best-case scenario for Houston is they pull out this game and at least give the appearance of making the AFC South more competitive. But the focus here is really on Baltimore. As you can see, a loss for the Ravens certainly wouldn’t help, but it wouldn’t be as significant a drop as one might expect, and they would remain above 50% with their chances of making the playoffs. No team is ever hoping to just squeak by though, so the Ravens will be coming out fighting tooth and nail for a win, as doing so would elevate their odds to near-lock status, hovering a couple points below 90%. Who knows if that puts them in the hunt for the division title with the Steelers (a long-shot given the lead Pittsburgh has accumulated), but at the very least it would secure their wild card spot, potentially stealing the Titans position as the top-seeded wild card team.

Saving the most important for last, today is Thanksgiving. Regardless of whether you celebrate this particular holiday or not, it is the manifestation of taking the time to reflect upon what it is we are thankful for, something that transcends any one day during the calendar year. With that in mind, thank you for your ongoing participation and interest in Oracle.

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

Do you think you can pick NFL games better than the NFL Oracle?

See how you do in the 2017 NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge

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2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 14

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 14 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Bowl season is just around the corner, and Oracle’s latest Valero Alamo Bowl projection is keeping things exciting. After four-straight weeks as the Pac-12 pick, (18) Washington State has been usurped by its in-state rival. There are so many ways to describe what the (13) Washington Huskies did to the (18) Washington State Cougars: embarrassing, demolishing, humiliating, gut-wrenching, heartbreaking…take your pick, and it seems fitting and appropriate. The 2017 Apple Cup was hardly riveting in the sense that this game was only close when the referee conducted the coin flip, as the only points the Cougars scored came with two touchdowns in garbage time, hardly doing much for posterity in comparison to the Huskies 41 points.

Not to be outdone, (14) Texas Christian did (13) Washington one better, or technically four, thanks to their 45 points against (128) Baylor. Granted, the Horned Frogs were playing the third worst team (which does take a certain degree of skill to be that bad) while the Huskies had to play an actual threat. Whereas the Pac-12 has remained relatively heated of late, (14) Texas Christian had recently developed a small bit of security in the second position of the Big 12, helping them come up as the Big 12 projected representative in the Valero Alamo Bowl.

While (13) Washington is not scheduled to play this upcoming weekend, (14) Texas Christian will have to face the powerhouse (5) Oklahoma Sooners, to whom the Horned Frogs lost to 38-20 on November 11, although that game was on the road, whereas Saturday’s game will be home.

Check out the updated standings for the respective conferences below, based off the Oracle rankings:

Pac-12 North: (13) Washington, (17) Stanford, (18) Washington State, (51) Oregon, (85) California, and (127) Oregon State

Pac-12 South: (11) Southern California, (40) Arizona State, (52) Arizona, (60) UCLA, (71) Utah, and (93) Colorado

Big 12: (5) Oklahoma, (14) Texas Christian, (28) Oklahoma State, (42) Iowa State, (53) Kansas State, (59) West Virginia, (68) Texas Tech, (72) Texas, (126) Kansas, and (128) Baylor

NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Clemson(11-1) 2
2Wisconsin(12-0)--
3Georgia(11-1) 1
4Alabama(11-1) 3
5Oklahoma(11-1) 3
6Central Florida(11-0) 3
7Auburn(10-2) 6
8Miami FL_(10-1) 3
9Ohio State(10-2) 2
10Penn State(10-2)--
11Southern California(10-2) 5
12Notre Dame(9-3) 5
13Washington(10-2) 4
14Texas Christian(10-2) 1
15Memphis(10-1) 1
16San Diego State(10-2) 2
17Stanford(9-3) 5
18Washington State(9-3) 6
19Toledo(10-2) 1
20Michigan State(9-3) 1
21Boise State(9-3) 7
22Louisiana State(9-3) 2
23Florida Atlantic(9-3) 2
24Virginia Tech(9-3) 5
25Northwestern(9-3)--
26Fresno State(9-3) 9
27North Texas(9-3)--
28Oklahoma State(9-3)--
29Troy(9-2) 3
30North Carolina State(8-4) 4
31Mississippi State(8-4) 8
32South Carolina(8-4) 6
33Louisville(8-4) 10
34South Florida(9-2) 3
35Michigan(8-4) 5
36Wake Forest(7-5) 3
37Iowa(7-5) 5
38Boston College(7-5) 7
39Central Michigan(8-4) 7
40Arizona State(7-5) 13
41Ohio(8-4) 5
42Iowa State(7-5) 5
43Army(8-3) 3
44Houston(7-4) 8
45Northern Illinois(8-4) 7
46Kentucky(7-5) 7
47Alabama-Birmingham(8-4) 2
48Texas A&M(7-5) 7
49Southern Methodist(7-5) 7
50Southern Mississippi(8-4) 7
51Oregon(7-5)--
52Arizona(7-5) 8
53Kansas State(7-5) 12
54Florida International(7-4) 8
55Akron(7-5) 3
56Missouri(7-5) 4
57Marshall(7-5) 9
58Wyoming(7-5) 11
59West Virginia(7-5) 9
60UCLA(6-6) 3
61Mississippi(6-6) 8
62Purdue(6-6) 2
63Navy(6-5) 8
64Appalachian State(7-4) 9
65Virginia(6-6) 11
66Duke(6-6) 10
67Arkansas State(7-3) 3
68Texas Tech(6-6) 12
69Buffalo(6-6) 12
70Colorado State(7-5) 11
71Utah(6-6) 8
72Texas(6-6) 11
73Temple(6-6) 5
74Western Michigan(6-6) 8
75Utah State(6-6) 7
76Georgia Tech(5-6) 9
77Pittsburgh(5-7) 22
78Middle Tennessee State(6-6) 12
79Louisiana Tech(6-6) 12
80Florida State(5-6) 13
81Tulane(5-7) 10
82Georgia State(6-4) 10
83Miami OH_(5-7) 12
84Western Kentucky(6-6) 10
85California(5-7) 10
86Vanderbilt(5-7) 12
87Air Force(5-7) 13
88Syracuse(4-8) 6
89Texas-San Antonio(6-5) 12
90Nevada-Las Vegas(5-7) 7
91Minnesota(5-7) 6
92Louisiana-Lafayette(5-6) 6
93Colorado(5-7) 9
94Old Dominion(5-7) 6
95Indiana(5-7) 8
96Florida(4-7) 7
97South Alabama(4-7) 5
98Eastern Michigan(5-7) 7
99Tennessee(4-8) 5
100Nebraska(4-8) 3
101New Mexico State(5-6) 5
102Maryland(4-8) 6
103Arkansas(4-8)--
104Louisiana-Monroe(4-7) 2
105Massachusetts(4-7) 1
106Rutgers(4-8) 5
107Cincinnati(4-8) 1
108Brigham Young(4-9) 5
109Idaho(3-8) 2
110North Carolina(3-9)--
111Connecticut(3-9) 2
112East Carolina(3-9) 1
113New Mexico(3-9) 1
114Nevada(3-9) 8
115Hawaii(3-9) 1
116Tulsa(2-10) 1
117Kent State(2-10) 1
118Ball State(2-10) 1
119San Jose State(2-11) 8
120Georgia Southern(2-9) 6
121Coastal Carolina(2-9) 2
122Bowling Green State(2-10) 2
123Illinois(2-10) 5
124Texas State(2-10) 3
125Charlotte(1-11) 2
126Kansas(1-11)--
127Oregon State(1-11) 1
128Baylor(1-11)--
129Rice(1-11)--
130Texas-El Paso(0-12)--

We’ve contained ourselves as long as possible, but now it’s impossible to make it any longer. Guess what? Of the teams currently listed in the top-10, two dropped positions from a week ago. Guess who? (4) Alabama and (8) Miami_FL. Ask yourself the last time you saw (4) next to Alabama. There were two additional teams that actually fell out of the top-10 last week: (11) Southern California, who did not play and consequently fell (-5), and (12) Notre Dame, who did play and also fell (-5) after (17) Stanford came back with a vengeance in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 points to cruise to a comfortable 38-20 win.

Okay, that was one sentence devoted to teams other than (4) Alabama and (8) Miami_FL, but now we’re going to return to all the fun associated with those two programs by turning our attention to the College Football Playoff projections.

Below, get a hold of Oracle’s newest component for NCAAF, the projections for the top-10 teams’ chances of making the 2017 College Football Playoff:

NCAAF Oracle – Chances to make the CFP

RankTeamRecordChances
1Clemson(11-1)99.99%
2Wisconsin(12-0)98.61%
3Georgia(11-1)59.48%
4Oklahoma(11-1)49.97%
5Auburn(10-2)48.58%
6Miami FL_(10-1)27.88%
7Ohio State(10-2)9.29%
8Alabama(11-1)5.13%
9Southern California(10-2)1.08%
10Stanford(9-3)0.00%

Just so you understand how crazy things got, check this out: last week, (4) Alabama had a 94.76% of making the College Football Playoff. Now, the Crimson Tide has a 5.13% chance, and no, that’s not a typo. (8) Miami_FL never had as good a chance as (4) Alabama blew, but their loss cost them 17% points, which could be more than enough to keep them out of the College Football Playoff. But let’s show some love to the teams that beat the two titans. Well, our love to (77) Pittsburgh will be brief, because they were only playing spoiler to (8) Miami_FL, and boy did they do that! As for (7) Auburn, their win over (4) Alabama in the Iron Bowl is arguably more interesting. A week ago, the Tigers had 0.43% chances of making the College Football Playoff; now, they’ve launched up to 48.58% chances. As you can see, that still leaves them 5th when you rank the teams by their chances, which would give them front row seats to watch as the top-4 teams compete for the National Championship. Still, the general consensus is that a late-season loss is far more detrimental than an early-season loss, so perhaps that same logic could be applied to this late-season upset in favor of (7) Auburn earning a bid for the College Football Playoff. This would also help explain why (4) Alabama is ranked higher than (5) Oklahoma, (7) Auburn, (8) Miami FL_, and (9) Ohio State in the overall Oracle rankings, yet is ranked below all of those teams in the chances to make the CFP.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Clemson 57% 18% 15% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 25% 27% 14% 22% 11% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Georgia 12% 25% 12% 5% 16% 19% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Alabama 0% 0% 0% 3% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Oklahoma 3% 13% 17% 13% 4% 5% 14% 17% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Central Florida 2% 12% 23% 11% 2% 5% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Auburn 0% 4% 16% 20% 9% 1% 2% 8% 16% 16% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Miami FL_ 0% 0% 2% 14% 24% 11% 0% 0% 6% 19% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 5% 15% 19% 10% 2% 0% 6% 19% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 28% 41% 22% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
11 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 15% 13% 6% 1% 3% 15% 22% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Notre Dame 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 26% 30% 21% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0%
13 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 29% 38% 21% 4% 0% 0% 0%
14 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 10% 16% 14% 6% 1% 0% 1% 7% 18% 18% 6% 0% 0%
15 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 1% 3% 14% 19% 10% 3% 0%
16 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 60% 23% 0%
17 Stanford 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 12% 19% 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 35% 3%
18 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 61%
19 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 16% 22% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%
20 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

This weekend’s games are reserved for Conference Championships, meaning that only 12 of Oracle’s top-20 playing. Those third and fourth positions for the College Football Playoff are still there for the taking, so some of these games could be huge in deciding how things shape up. (1) Clemson is sitting about as comfortable as any team possibly could right now, but that doesn’t mean their game against (8) Miami_FL is inconsequential. As always, depending on how things play out in this game, the Hurricanes might be able to do just enough to salvage their season and force their way into that third or fourth spot. The same can be said for (9) Ohio State when they travel to play (2) Wisconsin, although the Buckeyes have much slimmer odds than the Hurricanes do to steal one of those spots for the College Football Playoff. If we had to pick one that is the largest swing game, it would have to be (3) Georgia against (7) Auburn. As we said previously, (7) Auburn has nearly 49% chances of making the CFP, not quite good enough to get them in. However, (3) Georgia is not doing considerably better, sitting at about 59% chances. This isn’t set in stone by any means, but whoever wins this game could effectively punch their ticket for the third or fourth spot.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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Posted in NCAAF | Comments Off on 2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 14

2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 13 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington State

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Make that four-straight weeks for (12) Washington State as the projected Pac-12 participant in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Sweetening the deal even more, Oracle’s latest projection has (15) Texas Christian representing the Big 12 for back-to-back weeks. Consistency is key! (12) Washington State did not play this past weekend and, if we had to make an educated guess, it seems likely the Cougars were glued to their TVs seeing in-state and Week 13 rival (17) Washington defeat (79) Utah with a 38-yard field goal as time expired, a true moment of redemption for the Huskies kicker after missing an extra-point and field goal earlier in the game. The (17) Washington win just made this Saturday’s match-up all the more interesting: both teams are 6-2 in-conference, 9-2 overall, and are undefeated at home. Something’s got to give. Unlike (12) Washington State, (15) Texas Christian did not have the luxury of sitting at home during Week 12, having to travel across-state to Lubbock in order to take on (80) Texas Tech. That was about the extent of additional effort the Horned Frogs had to expend in comparison to the Cougars, as (15) Texas Christian put up 27 unanswered-points, only allowing a field goal to the Red Raiders in the first quarter. This win provided the long-awaited separation atop the Big 12 standings with regards to in-conference record, keeping (15) Texas Christian a game behind (8) Oklahoma and a game ahead of a handful of other conference opponents. Check out the updated standings for the respective conferences below, based off the Oracle rankings:

Pac-12 North: (12) Washington State, (17) Washington, (22) Stanford, (51) Oregon, (75) California, and (127) Oregon State

Pac-12 South: (6) Southern California, (44) Arizona, (53) Arizona State, (63) UCLA, (79) Utah, and (84) Colorado

Big 12: (8) Oklahoma, (15) Texas Christian, (28) Oklahoma State, (37) Iowa State, (50) West Virginia, (61) Texas, (65) Kansas State, (80) Texas Tech, (126) Kansas, and (128) Baylor

NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Alabama(11-0)--
2Wisconsin(11-0)--
3Clemson(10-1)--
4Georgia(10-1)--
5Miami FL_(10-0)--
6Southern California(10-2)--
7Notre Dame(9-2) 3
8Oklahoma(10-1)--
9Central Florida(10-0)--
10Penn State(9-2) 1
11Ohio State(9-2) 1
12Washington State(9-2) 5
13Auburn(9-2)--
14Boise State(9-2)--
15Texas Christian(9-2)--
16Memphis(9-1)--
17Washington(9-2) 1
18San Diego State(9-2) 1
19Michigan State(8-3) 1
20Toledo(9-2) 2
21Florida Atlantic(8-3) 7
22Stanford(8-3) 8
23Mississippi State(8-3) 8
24Louisiana State(8-3) 3
25Northwestern(8-3) 4
26South Carolina(8-3)--
27North Texas(8-3) 11
28Oklahoma State(8-3) 11
29Virginia Tech(8-3) 8
30Michigan(8-3) 9
31South Florida(9-1) 4
32Troy(8-2) 9
33Wake Forest(7-4) 10
34North Carolina State(7-4) 10
35Fresno State(8-3) 10
36Ohio(8-3) 11
37Iowa State(7-4) 2
38Northern Illinois(8-3) 9
39Kentucky(7-4) 7
40Army(8-3) 7
41Texas A&M(7-4) 9
42Iowa(6-5) 8
43Louisville(7-4) 10
44Arizona(7-4) 8
45Boston College(6-5) 9
46Central Michigan(7-4) 6
47Wyoming(7-4) 6
48Marshall(7-4) 8
49Alabama-Birmingham(7-4) 3
50West Virginia(7-4) 8
51Oregon(6-5) 8
52Houston(6-4) 8
53Arizona State(6-5) 3
54Virginia(6-5) 5
55Navy(6-4) 7
56Southern Methodist(6-5) 5
57Southern Mississippi(7-4) 5
58Akron(6-5) 15
59Colorado State(7-5) 4
60Missouri(6-5) 10
61Texas(6-5) 16
62Florida International(6-4) 7
63UCLA(5-6) 5
64Purdue(5-6) 14
65Kansas State(6-5) 15
66Western Michigan(6-5) 9
67Georgia Tech(5-5) 6
68Utah State(6-5) 8
69Mississippi(5-6) 9
70Arkansas State(6-3) 11
71Tulane(5-6) 17
72Georgia State(6-3) 7
73Appalachian State(6-4) 7
74Western Kentucky(6-5) 9
75California(5-6) 11
76Duke(5-6) 18
77Texas-San Antonio(6-4) 21
78Temple(5-6) 9
79Utah(5-6) 12
80Texas Tech(5-6) 12
81Buffalo(5-6) 6
82Syracuse(4-7) 11
83Nevada-Las Vegas(5-6) 8
84Colorado(5-6) 10
85Minnesota(5-6) 13
86Louisiana-Lafayette(5-5) 11
87Indiana(5-6) 14
88Old Dominion(5-6) 5
89Florida(4-6) 13
90Middle Tennessee State(5-6) 15
91Louisiana Tech(5-6) 8
92South Alabama(4-7) 13
93Florida State(4-6) 10
94Tennessee(4-7) 12
95Miami OH_(4-7) 11
96Maryland(4-7) 11
97Nebraska(4-7) 11
98Vanderbilt(4-7) 9
99Pittsburgh(4-7) 9
100Air Force(4-7) 5
101Rutgers(4-7) 9
102Louisiana-Monroe(4-6) 2
103Arkansas(4-7) 7
104Massachusetts(4-7) 4
105Eastern Michigan(4-7) 5
106New Mexico State(4-6) 2
107Idaho(3-7) 2
108Cincinnati(3-8) 1
109Connecticut(3-8) 3
110North Carolina(3-8) 6
111East Carolina(3-8) 8
112New Mexico(3-8) 3
113Brigham Young(3-9) 2
114Hawaii(3-8) 2
115Tulsa(2-9) 2
116Kent State(2-9) 2
117Ball State(2-9) 2
118Illinois(2-9) 1
119Coastal Carolina(2-9) 8
120Bowling Green State(2-9) 2
121Texas State(2-9) 1
122Nevada(2-9) 1
123Charlotte(1-10) 1
124Georgia Southern(1-9) 12
125San Jose State(1-11) 2
126Kansas(1-10) 2
127Oregon State(1-10) 1
128Baylor(1-10) 3
129Rice(1-10) 1
130Texas-El Paso(0-11)--

For all of the excitement of recent weeks, Week 12 was rather mundane in comparison. There was no shake up between the top-6, and only two changes in general in the top-10. (7) Notre Dame climbed three spots with their 24-17 victory over (55) Navy, while (10) Penn State returned to the upper echelon of teams thanks to the reemergence of Saquon Barkley as part of the all-offense 56-44 win over (97) Nebraska. Within the top-25, the two teams that took home the honor of greatest positive movement were (22) Stanford and (23) Mississippi State, each advancing (+8) in the rankings. In (22) Stanford’s case, the game against (75) California was defined by big plays for both teams, a missed field goal, a fake punt, and a late interception that ultimately led to a hard-fought 17-14 Cardinal win. For (23) Mississippi State, they, too, had their work cut out for them against (103) Arkansas; the two teams took turns delivering unanswered blows with each passing quarter: Razorbacks 14, Bulldogs 14, Razorbacks 7, Bulldogs 14. The pendulum repeatedly swung back-and-forth, but finally came to a stop leaning in (23) Mississippi State’s direction. Within that same grouping, (12) Washington State was our biggest negative mover (-5), attributable to the previously-discussed bye week.

Below, get a hold of Oracle’s newest component for NCAAF, the projections for the top-10 teams’ chances of making the 2017 College Football Playoff:

NCAAF Oracle – Chances to make the CFP

RankTeamRecordCFP Chances
1Alabama(11-0)94.76%
2Wisconsin(11-0)93.86%
3Clemson(10-1)61.06%
4Georgia(10-1)55.41%
5Miami FL_(10-0)44.34%
6Notre Dame(9-2)27.83%
7Oklahoma(10-1)13.84%
8Central Florida(10-0)8.38%
9Auburn(9-2)0.43%
10Washington State(9-2)0.05%

As a brief refresher or crash course, the College Football Playoff is a four-team playoff that results in a National Championship game following the two semifinal games. Looking at various factors throughout the season, the four teams are ranked and chosen by a 13-member committee. As you can see, heading into Week 13, Oracle favors (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, and (4) Georgia to be the selected teams for the College Football Playoff. (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin are practically shoe-ins at this point, but those last two spots are still up for grabs (and there is still the unlikely shot that the Crimson Tide or Badgers blow that cushioned lead they’ve worked so hard to earn). That next team itching to break through is (5) Miami_FL, who is only 11% behind (4) Georgia. The Hurricanes will have first crack at things, taking on Pittsburgh early on Friday. Depending on how this game plays out, the Bulldogs may have added pressure breathing down their necks as they play 24 hours later, against Georgia Tech. Keep in mind, rankings aren’t as clear-cut as being determined by a win or loss; there are far more contributing factors, including home-or-road and close-or-blowout. Both (5) Miami_FL and (4) Georgia will be on the road this week, so keep an eye on the finer details of each game to see possible implications for next week’s Oracle projections.

Notice that the rankings in this table are not the same as the Oracle rankings overall; instead, the rankings you see in this table are representative of the order of likelihood the teams have of making the Playoff. For comparison purposes, if we were to instead list the overall rankings for these 10 teams in order from greatest to least for CFP Chances, it would be as follows: (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami_FL, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Oklahoma, (9) Central Florida, (13) Auburn, and (12) Washington State.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Alabama 52% 10% 18% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 22% 37% 20% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Clemson 17% 21% 14% 9% 13% 14% 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Georgia 7% 20% 19% 10% 12% 17% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Miami FL_ 3% 11% 16% 15% 10% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 18% 27% 26% 15% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Notre Dame 0% 2% 8% 18% 16% 6% 1% 2% 6% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Oklahoma 0% 0% 3% 11% 17% 13% 5% 2% 6% 12% 16% 11% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Central Florida 0% 0% 1% 7% 16% 16% 8% 2% 0% 3% 12% 18% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9% 12% 15% 12% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
11 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 10% 16% 14% 6% 1% 2% 7% 12% 12% 8% 5% 2% 1% 0%
12 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 12% 5% 1% 0% 1% 6% 13% 15% 10% 4% 1% 0%
13 Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 17% 14% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 11% 11% 8% 5% 2% 1%
14 Boise State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9%
15 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 8% 16% 15% 8% 4% 6% 10% 11% 10%
16 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% 16% 15% 7% 1% 1% 3% 7% 10%
17 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 10% 14% 12% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 7%
18 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9% 6% 3% 2%
19 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 9% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% 2%
20 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 11% 11% 9% 4%

The top-5 has slowly become more solidified, particularly with (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin expected to maintain their current standing. Looking at the (3) spot, you’ll see that (4) Georgia actually has stronger odds than (3) Clemson of claiming the ranking. However, this is influenced by the fact that there is a 38% chance (3) Clemson could wind up in the top-2, compared to the 27% for (4) Georgia. With that in mind, the discrepancy in projections for (3) can be explained by those greater odds for the Tigers to move up, rather than being knocked down by the Bulldogs. Granted, that follows the assumption that both teams win, which isn’t necessarily a guarantee.

Some of the top match-ups should be between (1) Alabama and (13) Auburn in the latest rendition of the Iron Bowl and (12) Washington State and (17) Washington in the Apple Cup (a rivalry title that lacks the same grit-and-grind as the Iron Bowl). The outcome of the Iron Bowl won’t really have a huge impact on the rest of the NCAAF season, as (13) Auburn has less than a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoff and, as previously stated, (1) Alabama is all-but-locked-in. That being said, the Apple Cup will have interesting tremor effects, specifically for the Valero Alamo Bowl, as discussed at the beginning of this piece. The blessing-and-curse for (12) Washington State is that the game will be hosted by the rival Huskies. The curse? On paper, it’s generally harder to win on the road than it is at home and, in this case, the Huskies are 6-0 at home this season. The blessing? That lowers the expectations (to a degree) on the Cougars, meaning a closely-played loss wouldn’t necessarily destroy the chances for them to make the Valero Alamo Bowl, while a win on the road might be calculated as more impactful than a (17) Washington win at home.

Saving the most important for last, Thanksgiving is a mere two days away. Regardless of whether you celebrate this particular holiday or not, it is the manifestation of taking the time to reflect upon what it is we are thankful for, something that transcends any one day during the calendar year. With that in mind, thank you for your ongoing participation and interest in Oracle.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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