2nd Annual NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge – 2017

Welcome to the 2017 NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge!

Enter your picks for Week 15.

(Entries submitted after the start of the game will not be counted)

This competition is sponsored by the Department of Mathematics and the Sport Management Program at Trinity University. The challenge is maintained by the STAT seminar and supports the educational mission of the Oracle rankings project to teach about predictive analytics in sports. Participation is free!

Results will be updated as we are able to process the results. Games that have not finished or have not been updated are shown in gray.

71% 13% 59% 96% 34% 75% 23% 12% 77% 73% 17% 63% 92% 58% 14% 96%
Overall Consensus (8-7) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
29% 87% 41% 4% 66% 25% 77% 88% 23% 27% 83% 37% 8% 42% 86% 4%
Week 14 Picks Season
Rk __Entry_Name__ Win-Loss Rk Record PCT
9 Mark Montalbano 10-5 NO BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 1 144-63 70%
9 Jonathan Prescott 10-5 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 2 143-64 69%
3 Will Farner 11-4 ATL BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 3 142-65 69%
47 Chris Fanick 8-7 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN SF TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 4 139-68 67%
47 Keener STAT 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 4 139-68 67%
9 Craig Mills 10-5 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 6 138-69 67%
9 Brent Morgan 10-5 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 7 137-70 66%
1 Liam Crawley 12-3 NO BUF JAC GB KC CAR CHI SF DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI BAL NE 7 137-70 66%
3 Marc Goodrich 11-4 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN SF DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 7 137-70 66%
47 NFL Oracle 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR BAL NE 7 137-70 66%
9 Brian Miceli 10-5 ATL BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB ARI LAC DEN DAL LAR PIT NE 11 136-71 66%
21 Josh Moczygemba 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 11 136-71 66%
47 Massey STAT 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR BAL NE 11 136-71 66%
47 Jordan Bruce 8-7 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN SF DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR BAL NE 14 135-72 65%
21 Maddie Heliste 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL LAR PIT NE 14 135-72 65%
70 Marie Lutz 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 14 135-72 65%
9 Chris DiPaolo 10-5 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 17 134-73 65%
21 Douglas Dellmore 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN SF DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 17 134-73 65%
47 Christina Cooley 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 19 133-74 64%
70 Diana Riddle 7-8 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 19 133-60 69%
9 Jeremy Lynch 10-5 ATL BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 19 133-74 64%
9 Ghost of Tony Romo 10-5 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 19 133-74 64%
1 Ryan Reynolds 12-3 ATL BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 19 133-74 64%
47 Chris Robinson 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 24 132-75 64%
47 Eric Suhler 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 24 132-74 64%
21 Harry Wallace 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 24 132-75 64%
21 stella artois 9-6 ATL BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 24 132-75 64%
21 Bryan Fowler 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
21 Biased Voter STAT 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
70 Colley STAT 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
93 Johnny Biology 5-10 NO IND SEA GB OAK MIN CIN SF DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR BAL NE 28 131-76 63%
95 Bob Nicholson 3-12 NO IND SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR BAL NE 28 131-76 63%
89 Steven Hargis 6-9 NO BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CHI HOU TB TEN WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
21 Dillon Wolf 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
3 Tim O’Sullivan 11-4 ATL BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI SF DET TEN LAC DEN DAL LAR PIT NE 28 131-76 63%
21 Clint Schroeder 9-6 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 36 130-77 63%
47 Mitchell Kight 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 36 130-77 63%
47 Michele Johnson 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 36 130-77 63%
70 Michael Dennis 7-8 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK CAR CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI BAL NE 36 130-77 63%
21 Oracle/Wins STAT 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 36 130-77 63%
70 Reese Murphy 7-8 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 36 130-74 64%
47 Ben Newhouse 8-7 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 42 129-78 62%
3 Davis King 11-4 ATL BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN SF DET ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 42 129-78 62%
47 PageRank STAT 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 42 129-78 62%
70 Sam Hyden 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 42 129-78 62%
21 Deven Nongbri 9-6 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU TB ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 46 128-76 63%
9 Tom Tegtmeyer 10-5 NO BUF SEA GB OAK CAR CIN HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 46 128-79 62%
21 Jim Freeman 9-6 ATL BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 48 127-79 62%
47 Shawn Sunday 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 48 127-79 62%
47 Valerie Schweers 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI BAL NE 48 127-80 61%
21 WinPct STAT 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 48 127-80 61%
70 David Wood 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 52 126-81 61%
21 Jordan Bethea 9-6 NO IND SEA GB KC CAR CHI HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL LAR BAL NE 52 126-81 61%
70 Best OFF STAT 7-8 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 52 126-81 61%
21 Susan Coker 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 52 126-81 61%
21 Arastu Jahanbin 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 56 125-68 65%
47 Adam Mueller 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 56 125-66 65%
21 Kevin Davis 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 56 125-68 65%
21 Matt Sidhom 9-6 NO IND JAC GB KC MIN CIN SF DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 59 124-83 60%
21 Tim Ward 9-6 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN NYG PHI PIT NE 59 124-83 60%
21 Dylan Hendel 9-6 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI WAS DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 61 122-85 59%
21 Joshua Adame 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL LAR PIT NE 62 121-73 62%
70 Tanner Kohfield 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB OAK CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI BAL NE 62 121-58 68%
47 Kipp Smithers 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI BAL NE 64 120-72 62%
47 Jacob Tingle 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB ARI LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 64 120-71 63%
89 OFF Yds STAT 6-9 NO IND SEA GB KC MIN CIN SF TB ARI LAC NYJ NYG LAR PIT NE 64 120-87 58%
89 Braxton Bartlett 6-9 NO BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 67 119-72 62%
70 Dylan Holland 7-8 ATL IND SEA CLE OAK MIN CHI HOU TB ARI WAS DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 67 119-88 57%
70 Enrique Alcoreza 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 69 118-86 58%
47 Dale Cochran 8-7 ATL IND SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB ARI LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 69 118-89 57%
89 TD Gunslinger 6-9 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ NYG LAR PIT NE 69 118-89 57%
70 Alexander Krantz 7-8 NO IND SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 72 114-77 60%
70 Callum Squires 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT MIA 72 114-77 60%
3 Tessa Uviedo 11-4 ATL BUF SEA GB KC CAR CHI HOU DET TEN WAS DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 72 114-77 60%
21 Rick McMullen 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 75 113-91 55%
21 Rebecca Cook 9-6 ATL IND SEA GB OAK MIN CHI HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 76 112-81 58%
47 Manny Gonzalez 8-7 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 76 112-79 59%
47 Finlay McCracken 8-7 NO BUF JAC CLE OAK CAR CHI HOU DET TEN WAS NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 78 111-96 54%
21 Taylor Stakes 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 78 111-82 58%
47 Mary Love 8-7 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET ARI LAC DEN NYG LAR BAL MIA 80 109-98 53%
47 Matthew Jones 8-7 NO BUF SEA GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 81 107-71 60%
9 Heather H. Smith 10-5 NO BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB ARI LAC DEN NYG PHI PIT NE 82 104-103 50%
21 Jesse Gamble 9-6 NO BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN SF DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 82 104-60 63%
93 DEF Yds STAT 5-10 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU TB TEN WAS NYJ NYG LAR PIT NE 84 103-104 50%
21 Suzy Gray 9-6 NO BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU TB ARI LAC DEN NYG LAR PIT NE 85 102-59 63%
70 Best DEF STAT 7-8 ATL IND SEA CLE OAK CAR CHI HOU DET ARI WAS DEN NYG LAR PIT MIA 86 97-110 47%
70 Britni Ridolfi 7-8 NO IND SEA GB KC MIN CHI HOU TB TEN WAS DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 87 95-96 50%
70 Hugh Daschbach 7-8 NO BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU TB TEN LAC DEN DAL LAR PIT NE 88 93-70 57%
70 Kevin McIntyre 7-8 NO BUF SEA GB KC MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 89 88-60 59%
3 Nicole Fratto 11-4 NO IND SEA GB KC CAR CHI HOU DET ARI LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 90 86-74 54%
9 Paul Willstrop 10-5 ATL BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC DEN DAL PHI PIT NE 91 81-34 70%
47 Samantha Gonzalez 8-7 NO BUF JAC GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL PHI PIT NE 92 59-28 68%
9 Josh Huskin 10-5 ATL BUF JAC GB KC CAR CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 93 52-36 59%
70 Matthew Patty 7-8 NO BUF SEA CLE OAK CAR CHI HOU DET ARI WAS DEN DAL LAR BAL MIA 94 32-27 54%
70 Block Monoid 7-8 ATL BUF SEA GB OAK MIN CIN HOU DET TEN LAC NYJ DAL LAR PIT NE 95 18-13 58%

When you enter your picks, you will be automatically added to receive a reminder for your picks every week a few days before the first game of the week.
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2017 Challenge – Week 13 Results

Week 13 Consensus Picks by Affiliation Season
__Affiliation__ Week PCT Season PCT
Other 72.40% 67% 83% 75% 100% 83% 50% 33% 50% 42% 83% 100% 100% 100% 75% 25% 92% 67.53%
Student 69.03% 50% 73% 55% 91% 100% 55% 27% 27% 45% 86% 86% 95% 100% 91% 23% 100% 63.54%
Alumni 68.18% 58% 82% 61% 88% 94% 61% 24% 36% 39% 73% 91% 97% 91% 82% 18% 97% 62.84%
Faculty/Staff 67.50% 55% 80% 45% 85% 100% 55% 20% 10% 60% 75% 90% 100% 100% 95% 25% 85% 61.51%
Computer 61.46% 25% 75% 67% 92% 92% 83% 33% 8% 17% 67% 75% 83% 83% 83% 17% 83% 61.41%
Week 13 Picks Season
Rk __Entry_Name__ Win-Loss Rk Record PCT
63 Mark Montalbano 10-6 DAL TB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 1 134-58 70%
37 Jonathan Prescott 11-5 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 2 133-59 69%
19 Chris Fanick 12-4 WAS TB MIA NO NE MIN SF KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 3 131-61 68%
37 Keener STAT 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 3 131-61 68%
3 Will Farner 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 3 131-61 68%
19 NFL Oracle 12-4 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 6 129-63 67%
19 Craig Mills 12-4 DAL GB DEN CAR NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 7 128-64 67%
79 Massey STAT 9-7 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 7 128-64 67%
37 Marie Lutz 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 7 128-64 67%
3 Bob Nicholson 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 7 128-64 67%
3 Brent Morgan 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK ARI SEA PIT 11 127-65 66%
37 Jordan Bruce 11-5 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 11 127-65 66%
19 Josh Moczygemba 12-4 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 11 127-65 66%
3 Brian Miceli 13-3 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 14 126-66 66%
19 Diana Riddle 12-4 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL SF NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 14 126-52 71%
37 Johnny Biology 11-5 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 14 126-66 66%
37 Marc Goodrich 11-5 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 14 126-66 66%
37 Maddie Heliste 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 14 126-66 66%
37 Christina Cooley 11-5 DAL GB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 19 125-67 65%
63 Douglas Dellmore 10-6 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC NYG LAR PHI PIT 19 125-67 65%
3 Liam Crawley 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 19 125-67 65%
37 Steven Hargis 11-5 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 19 125-67 65%
79 Chris DiPaolo 9-7 DAL GB MIA NO BUF ATL CHI KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 23 124-68 65%
63 Chris Robinson 10-6 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 23 124-68 65%
37 Colley STAT 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 23 124-68 65%
19 Eric Suhler 12-4 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 23 124-67 65%
37 Damon Bullis 11-5 WAS TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
79 Liza Southwick 9-7 WAS GB DEN CAR NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
37 Harry Wallace 11-5 DAL GB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
19 Jeremy Lynch 12-4 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 27 123-69 64%
3 stella artois 13-3 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
19 Michael Dennis 12-4 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
37 Ghost of Tony Romo 11-5 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-69 64%
3 Reese Murphy 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 27 123-66 65%
63 Bryan Fowler 10-6 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 35 122-70 64%
37 Biased Voter STAT 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 35 122-70 64%
3 Mitchell Kight 13-3 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN SF NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 35 122-70 64%
19 Michele Johnson 12-4 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 35 122-70 64%
37 Sam Hyden 11-5 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN CHI NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 35 122-70 64%
63 Dillon Wolf 10-6 DAL GB DEN CAR NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 35 122-70 64%
37 Ben Newhouse 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL SF KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 41 121-71 63%
3 Clint Schroeder 13-3 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 41 121-71 63%
37 Oracle/Wins STAT 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 41 121-71 63%
63 PageRank STAT 10-6 WAS GB MIA CAR NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 41 121-71 63%
63 Ryan Reynolds 10-6 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 41 121-71 63%
19 Tim O’Sullivan 12-4 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI CIN 46 120-72 62%
3 Deven Nongbri 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 47 119-70 63%
63 David Wood 10-6 DAL TB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 47 119-73 62%
63 Best OFF STAT 10-6 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 47 119-73 62%
3 Shawn Sunday 13-3 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 47 119-72 62%
37 Valerie Schweers 11-5 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 47 119-73 62%
94 Davis King 7-9 WAS TB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN IND LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 52 118-74 61%
37 Jim Freeman 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 52 118-73 62%
1 Tom Tegtmeyer 14-2 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 52 118-74 61%
3 WinPct STAT 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 52 118-74 61%
19 Adam Mueller 12-4 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 56 117-59 66%
37 Jordan Bethea 11-5 DAL GB DEN CAR NE ATL SF KC BAL HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 56 117-75 61%
19 Susan Coker 12-4 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL SF NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 56 117-75 61%
19 Arastu Jahanbin 12-4 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN IND LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 59 116-62 65%
3 Kevin Davis 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 59 116-62 65%
63 Matt Sidhom 10-6 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 61 115-77 60%
79 Tim Ward 9-7 WAS TB MIA NO BUF MIN CHI NYJ DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 61 115-77 60%
1 Tanner Kohfield 14-2 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN SF KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 63 114-50 70%
88 OFF Yds STAT 8-8 DAL TB MIA NO NE ATL SF KC DET TEN IND LAC NYG ARI SEA CIN 63 114-78 59%
37 Braxton Bartlett 11-5 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 65 113-63 64%
63 Dylan Hendel 10-6 WAS GB MIA CAR NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 65 113-79 59%
79 Kipp Smithers 9-7 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ DET HOU JAC LAC NYG LAR PHI PIT 67 112-65 63%
3 Patrick Pringle 13-3 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN SF KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 67 112-64 64%
79 Dylan Holland 9-7 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC BAL HOU IND LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 67 112-80 58%
37 Joshua Adame 11-5 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 67 112-67 63%
19 Jacob Tingle 12-4 DAL GB MIA CAR NE ATL CHI KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 67 112-64 64%
3 TD Gunslinger 13-3 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN SF NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 67 112-80 58%
79 Enrique Alcoreza 9-7 DAL GB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC DET HOU IND LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 73 111-78 59%
79 Dale Cochran 9-7 DAL GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET HOU IND LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 74 110-82 57%
63 Callum Squires 10-6 WAS TB MIA NO NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 75 107-69 61%
63 Craig Burton 10-6 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL HOU IND LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 76 104-71 59%
37 Manny Gonzalez 11-5 DAL GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 76 104-72 59%
37 Rick McMullen 11-5 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN CHI NYJ DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 76 104-85 55%
88 Rebecca Cook 8-8 DAL TB DEN NO NE MIN CHI KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 79 103-75 58%
79 Finlay McCracken 9-7 DAL GB DEN CAR NE MIN CHI KC DET TEN JAC CLE OAK LAR PHI PIT 79 103-89 54%
88 Tessa Uviedo 8-8 DAL GB DEN NO NE ATL SF KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI CIN 79 103-73 59%
88 Taylor Stakes 8-8 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL CHI KC DET HOU IND LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 82 102-76 57%
94 Mary Love 7-9 WAS GB MIA CAR NE ATL CHI KC DET HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI CIN 83 101-91 53%
63 Matthew Jones 10-6 WAS GB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA PIT 84 99-64 61%
94 DEF Yds STAT 7-9 WAS TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET HOU IND CLE OAK LAR PHI PIT 85 98-94 51%
63 Jesse Gamble 10-6 WAS TB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 86 95-54 64%
88 Heather H. Smith 8-8 WAS TB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR SEA CIN 87 94-98 49%
98 Best DEF STAT 5-11 WAS TB MIA NO BUF ATL SF NYJ DET HOU IND CLE NYG ARI SEA CIN 88 90-102 47%
63 Keller Murphey 10-6 WAS GB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC DET TEN JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 89 89-59 60%
88 Britni Ridolfi 8-8 DAL GB DEN NO NE ATL CHI KC BAL HOU IND LAC NYG ARI SEA PIT 90 88-88 50%
19 Hugh Daschbach 12-4 DAL GB DEN NO NE MIN SF KC BAL HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 91 86-62 58%
3 Paul Willstrop 13-3 WAS GB MIA NO NE MIN CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 92 71-29 71%
19 Ben Nunes 12-4 DAL TB MIA NO NE ATL CHI NYJ BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 93 62-42 60%
19 Samantha Gonzalez 12-4 WAS GB MIA NO NE ATL SF NYJ BAL HOU JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 94 51-21 71%
19 Clyde Sikes 12-4 DAL TB MIA NO NE ATL SF KC BAL TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 95 45-27 62%
37 Matt Meador 11-5 WAS GB MIA NO BUF ATL SF NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK LAR PHI PIT 96 31-12 72%
94 Matthew Patty 7-9 DAL GB DEN CAR NE MIN CHI KC BAL HOU JAC CLE OAK ARI PHI CIN 97 25-19 57%
37 Block Monoid 11-5 DAL GB MIA NO BUF MIN CHI NYJ DET TEN JAC LAC OAK ARI PHI PIT 98 11-5 69%

When you enter your picks, you will be automatically added to receive a reminder for your picks every week a few days before the first game of the week.

Posted in NFL, NFL Challenge | Comments Off on 2017 Challenge – Week 13 Results

2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 14

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 14 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Bowl season is just around the corner, and Oracle’s latest Valero Alamo Bowl projection is keeping things exciting. After four-straight weeks as the Pac-12 pick, (18) Washington State has been usurped by its in-state rival. There are so many ways to describe what the (13) Washington Huskies did to the (18) Washington State Cougars: embarrassing, demolishing, humiliating, gut-wrenching, heartbreaking…take your pick, and it seems fitting and appropriate. The 2017 Apple Cup was hardly riveting in the sense that this game was only close when the referee conducted the coin flip, as the only points the Cougars scored came with two touchdowns in garbage time, hardly doing much for posterity in comparison to the Huskies 41 points.

Not to be outdone, (14) Texas Christian did (13) Washington one better, or technically four, thanks to their 45 points against (128) Baylor. Granted, the Horned Frogs were playing the third worst team (which does take a certain degree of skill to be that bad) while the Huskies had to play an actual threat. Whereas the Pac-12 has remained relatively heated of late, (14) Texas Christian had recently developed a small bit of security in the second position of the Big 12, helping them come up as the Big 12 projected representative in the Valero Alamo Bowl.

While (13) Washington is not scheduled to play this upcoming weekend, (14) Texas Christian will have to face the powerhouse (5) Oklahoma Sooners, to whom the Horned Frogs lost to 38-20 on November 11, although that game was on the road, whereas Saturday’s game will be home.

Check out the updated standings for the respective conferences below, based off the Oracle rankings:

Pac-12 North: (13) Washington, (17) Stanford, (18) Washington State, (51) Oregon, (85) California, and (127) Oregon State

Pac-12 South: (11) Southern California, (40) Arizona State, (52) Arizona, (60) UCLA, (71) Utah, and (93) Colorado

Big 12: (5) Oklahoma, (14) Texas Christian, (28) Oklahoma State, (42) Iowa State, (53) Kansas State, (59) West Virginia, (68) Texas Tech, (72) Texas, (126) Kansas, and (128) Baylor

NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Clemson(11-1) 2
2Wisconsin(12-0)--
3Georgia(11-1) 1
4Alabama(11-1) 3
5Oklahoma(11-1) 3
6Central Florida(11-0) 3
7Auburn(10-2) 6
8Miami FL_(10-1) 3
9Ohio State(10-2) 2
10Penn State(10-2)--
11Southern California(10-2) 5
12Notre Dame(9-3) 5
13Washington(10-2) 4
14Texas Christian(10-2) 1
15Memphis(10-1) 1
16San Diego State(10-2) 2
17Stanford(9-3) 5
18Washington State(9-3) 6
19Toledo(10-2) 1
20Michigan State(9-3) 1
21Boise State(9-3) 7
22Louisiana State(9-3) 2
23Florida Atlantic(9-3) 2
24Virginia Tech(9-3) 5
25Northwestern(9-3)--
26Fresno State(9-3) 9
27North Texas(9-3)--
28Oklahoma State(9-3)--
29Troy(9-2) 3
30North Carolina State(8-4) 4
31Mississippi State(8-4) 8
32South Carolina(8-4) 6
33Louisville(8-4) 10
34South Florida(9-2) 3
35Michigan(8-4) 5
36Wake Forest(7-5) 3
37Iowa(7-5) 5
38Boston College(7-5) 7
39Central Michigan(8-4) 7
40Arizona State(7-5) 13
41Ohio(8-4) 5
42Iowa State(7-5) 5
43Army(8-3) 3
44Houston(7-4) 8
45Northern Illinois(8-4) 7
46Kentucky(7-5) 7
47Alabama-Birmingham(8-4) 2
48Texas A&M(7-5) 7
49Southern Methodist(7-5) 7
50Southern Mississippi(8-4) 7
51Oregon(7-5)--
52Arizona(7-5) 8
53Kansas State(7-5) 12
54Florida International(7-4) 8
55Akron(7-5) 3
56Missouri(7-5) 4
57Marshall(7-5) 9
58Wyoming(7-5) 11
59West Virginia(7-5) 9
60UCLA(6-6) 3
61Mississippi(6-6) 8
62Purdue(6-6) 2
63Navy(6-5) 8
64Appalachian State(7-4) 9
65Virginia(6-6) 11
66Duke(6-6) 10
67Arkansas State(7-3) 3
68Texas Tech(6-6) 12
69Buffalo(6-6) 12
70Colorado State(7-5) 11
71Utah(6-6) 8
72Texas(6-6) 11
73Temple(6-6) 5
74Western Michigan(6-6) 8
75Utah State(6-6) 7
76Georgia Tech(5-6) 9
77Pittsburgh(5-7) 22
78Middle Tennessee State(6-6) 12
79Louisiana Tech(6-6) 12
80Florida State(5-6) 13
81Tulane(5-7) 10
82Georgia State(6-4) 10
83Miami OH_(5-7) 12
84Western Kentucky(6-6) 10
85California(5-7) 10
86Vanderbilt(5-7) 12
87Air Force(5-7) 13
88Syracuse(4-8) 6
89Texas-San Antonio(6-5) 12
90Nevada-Las Vegas(5-7) 7
91Minnesota(5-7) 6
92Louisiana-Lafayette(5-6) 6
93Colorado(5-7) 9
94Old Dominion(5-7) 6
95Indiana(5-7) 8
96Florida(4-7) 7
97South Alabama(4-7) 5
98Eastern Michigan(5-7) 7
99Tennessee(4-8) 5
100Nebraska(4-8) 3
101New Mexico State(5-6) 5
102Maryland(4-8) 6
103Arkansas(4-8)--
104Louisiana-Monroe(4-7) 2
105Massachusetts(4-7) 1
106Rutgers(4-8) 5
107Cincinnati(4-8) 1
108Brigham Young(4-9) 5
109Idaho(3-8) 2
110North Carolina(3-9)--
111Connecticut(3-9) 2
112East Carolina(3-9) 1
113New Mexico(3-9) 1
114Nevada(3-9) 8
115Hawaii(3-9) 1
116Tulsa(2-10) 1
117Kent State(2-10) 1
118Ball State(2-10) 1
119San Jose State(2-11) 8
120Georgia Southern(2-9) 6
121Coastal Carolina(2-9) 2
122Bowling Green State(2-10) 2
123Illinois(2-10) 5
124Texas State(2-10) 3
125Charlotte(1-11) 2
126Kansas(1-11)--
127Oregon State(1-11) 1
128Baylor(1-11)--
129Rice(1-11)--
130Texas-El Paso(0-12)--

We’ve contained ourselves as long as possible, but now it’s impossible to make it any longer. Guess what? Of the teams currently listed in the top-10, two dropped positions from a week ago. Guess who? (4) Alabama and (8) Miami_FL. Ask yourself the last time you saw (4) next to Alabama. There were two additional teams that actually fell out of the top-10 last week: (11) Southern California, who did not play and consequently fell (-5), and (12) Notre Dame, who did play and also fell (-5) after (17) Stanford came back with a vengeance in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 points to cruise to a comfortable 38-20 win.

Okay, that was one sentence devoted to teams other than (4) Alabama and (8) Miami_FL, but now we’re going to return to all the fun associated with those two programs by turning our attention to the College Football Playoff projections.

Below, get a hold of Oracle’s newest component for NCAAF, the projections for the top-10 teams’ chances of making the 2017 College Football Playoff:

NCAAF Oracle – Chances to make the CFP

RankTeamRecordChances
1Clemson(11-1)99.99%
2Wisconsin(12-0)98.61%
3Georgia(11-1)59.48%
4Oklahoma(11-1)49.97%
5Auburn(10-2)48.58%
6Miami FL_(10-1)27.88%
7Ohio State(10-2)9.29%
8Alabama(11-1)5.13%
9Southern California(10-2)1.08%
10Stanford(9-3)0.00%

Just so you understand how crazy things got, check this out: last week, (4) Alabama had a 94.76% of making the College Football Playoff. Now, the Crimson Tide has a 5.13% chance, and no, that’s not a typo. (8) Miami_FL never had as good a chance as (4) Alabama blew, but their loss cost them 17% points, which could be more than enough to keep them out of the College Football Playoff. But let’s show some love to the teams that beat the two titans. Well, our love to (77) Pittsburgh will be brief, because they were only playing spoiler to (8) Miami_FL, and boy did they do that! As for (7) Auburn, their win over (4) Alabama in the Iron Bowl is arguably more interesting. A week ago, the Tigers had 0.43% chances of making the College Football Playoff; now, they’ve launched up to 48.58% chances. As you can see, that still leaves them 5th when you rank the teams by their chances, which would give them front row seats to watch as the top-4 teams compete for the National Championship. Still, the general consensus is that a late-season loss is far more detrimental than an early-season loss, so perhaps that same logic could be applied to this late-season upset in favor of (7) Auburn earning a bid for the College Football Playoff. This would also help explain why (4) Alabama is ranked higher than (5) Oklahoma, (7) Auburn, (8) Miami FL_, and (9) Ohio State in the overall Oracle rankings, yet is ranked below all of those teams in the chances to make the CFP.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Clemson 57% 18% 15% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 25% 27% 14% 22% 11% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Georgia 12% 25% 12% 5% 16% 19% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Alabama 0% 0% 0% 3% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Oklahoma 3% 13% 17% 13% 4% 5% 14% 17% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Central Florida 2% 12% 23% 11% 2% 5% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Auburn 0% 4% 16% 20% 9% 1% 2% 8% 16% 16% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Miami FL_ 0% 0% 2% 14% 24% 11% 0% 0% 6% 19% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 5% 15% 19% 10% 2% 0% 6% 19% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 28% 41% 22% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
11 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 15% 13% 6% 1% 3% 15% 22% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Notre Dame 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 26% 30% 21% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0%
13 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 29% 38% 21% 4% 0% 0% 0%
14 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 10% 16% 14% 6% 1% 0% 1% 7% 18% 18% 6% 0% 0%
15 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 1% 3% 14% 19% 10% 3% 0%
16 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 60% 23% 0%
17 Stanford 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 12% 19% 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 35% 3%
18 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 61%
19 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 16% 22% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%
20 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

This weekend’s games are reserved for Conference Championships, meaning that only 12 of Oracle’s top-20 playing. Those third and fourth positions for the College Football Playoff are still there for the taking, so some of these games could be huge in deciding how things shape up. (1) Clemson is sitting about as comfortable as any team possibly could right now, but that doesn’t mean their game against (8) Miami_FL is inconsequential. As always, depending on how things play out in this game, the Hurricanes might be able to do just enough to salvage their season and force their way into that third or fourth spot. The same can be said for (9) Ohio State when they travel to play (2) Wisconsin, although the Buckeyes have much slimmer odds than the Hurricanes do to steal one of those spots for the College Football Playoff. If we had to pick one that is the largest swing game, it would have to be (3) Georgia against (7) Auburn. As we said previously, (7) Auburn has nearly 49% chances of making the CFP, not quite good enough to get them in. However, (3) Georgia is not doing considerably better, sitting at about 59% chances. This isn’t set in stone by any means, but whoever wins this game could effectively punch their ticket for the third or fourth spot.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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Posted in NCAAF | Comments Off on 2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 14

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 13

It was another strong showing for Oracle, posting a lovely 13-3 projection mark for Week 12 of the 2017 NFL season. Let’s inspect those three incorrect picks to see what happened, beginning with the (20) Dallas Cowboys. In this Thanksgiving-day match-up against the (19) Los Angeles Chargers, America’s team only had about a 5% edge, indicative of a high-likelihood that this game would come down to the wire. If you watched this game, you’d have guessed that the Chargers were the team that had been favored, and by a much larger margin than 5%; Los Angeles made short work of Dallas, coasting to a 28-6 win in Thursday’s Game 2. The next incorrect pick came with the (10) Kansas City Chiefs, a team that started the season as one of the hottest in the league, until the train started to come off the tracks in Week 11 with an overtime loss to the (30) New York Giants. In Week 12, the Chiefs were favored to pick up speed once again against the (12) Buffalo Bills, another team that has been very hot and then very cold. Unfortunately for Kansas City, Week 12 saw the train completely derail as they were forced to accept a consecutive close-loss. Like the Cowboys-Chargers game, the Chiefs-Bills game was anticipated to be close (Kansas City favored by 8%), and this was certainly far more competitive than the dismal performance by Dallas, but the fact remains that Oracle came up on the losing side. The third and final incorrect pick came with the former AFC-favorite to make the Super Bowl (spoiler alert) in the (9) Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville would be facing a banged-up (22) Arizona Cardinals team, so Oracle treated the Jaguars as the hands-down favorite with 78% odds of winning, the best odds given to any team in Week 12. This game turned into a blow-for-blow battle, culminating in a career-long 57-yard field goal by Arizona kicker Phil Dawson as time expired, providing his team a 27-24 victory.

After a week of these tightly-played football games, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 13

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 13.3 100.0% 99.9% 89.2% 26.3%
2 PIT 2 12.0 99.5% 94.7% 79.1% 8.1%
3 MIN 2 12.3 99.2% 97.0% 72.0% 7.4%
4 NE 1 12.3 99.5% 95.3% 84.6% 18.9%
5 NO 3 11.2 94.5% 68.6% 15.2% 6.8%
6 CAR 10.6 82.4% 25.4% 8.3% 2.2%
7 LAR 2 10.9 89.3% 74.1% 12.9% 11.0%
8 ATL 2 9.1 41.5% 6.0% 1.5% 0.8%
9 JAC 2 10.3 94.5% 57.1% 25.2% 9.5%
10 KC 2 9.2 77.6% 74.4% 2.9% 2.1%
11 TEN 9.7 78.9% 42.3% 4.1% 1.6%
12 BUF 2 8.6 42.8% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8%
13 SEA 9.4 45.0% 25.3% 0.8% 0.8%
14 DET 2 9.0 30.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.4%
15 BAL 1 8.9 62.5% 5.2% 1.9% 2.1%
16 OAK 2 7.1 9.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.1%
17 GB 2 7.4 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
18 WAS 2 7.7 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
19 LAC 3 7.9 24.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.6%
20 DAL 3 7.6 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
21 MIA 2 5.7 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 5 7.0 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
23 CIN 3 7.1 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
24 NYJ 3 6.0 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CHI 1 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 HOU 1 6.3 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
27 TB 4 5.7 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 DEN 5.4 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 4.8 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Not much has changed positioning-wise as far as the playoff-picture is concerned. As it stands, there are six teams that all have greater than 90% chances of making the playoffs, with one additional team just below that threshold. None of the projected division winners have changed since last week, although there continues to be shake-up in the Wild Card hunt. As a quick refresher, the Week 12 Wild Card projections had the (6) Carolina Panthers and (14) Detroit Lions out of the NFC, and the (11) Tennessee Titans and (15) Baltimore Ravens out of the AFC. Just like the previous week, the top Wild Card team in each conference has remained the same, but the second Wild Card has been claimed by a new team in the NFC. The (13) Seattle Seahawks have remained relevant, keeping their playoff chances alive at 45%. Although the division-rival (7) Los Angeles Rams have the clear edge at the moment, the Seahawks are at least keeping things interesting. The Titans and Ravens are still the top-two Wild Card teams in the AFC at present, with playoff chances of 79% and 63%, respectively. What’s interesting is that the Titans have a marginally better chance of making the playoffs than the Chiefs in the AFC, despite the fact that the Chiefs remain the favorite to win the AFC West and the Titans aren’t even projected to win their division, the AFC South. This tells us that it is more important to the Chiefs to win their division than it is to the Titans; Tennessee has remained competitive enough not only in the AFC South, but in the conference overall, to where they could capture a playoff-berth without having to worry about surpassing Jacksonville.

Which brings us to the Super Bowl projections. We kind of spoiled things earlier by suggesting that there has been some changes to the projected Super Bowl participants. While the (1) Philadelphia Eagles are the outright favorite in the NFC, the Jaguars loss to the Cardinals was a devastating blow to their odds of making the Super Bowl. In their stead, the (4) New England Patriots have quietly become the team to beat in the AFC, which shouldn’t be surprising to any of us purely because of the reputation the Patriots have built since the Brady-Belichick era began. The Eagles odds stand at roughly 26% compared to the Patriots’ 19%, the closest-competitors being the Rams and Jaguars, respectively.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 13 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing game of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 13

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 30 2017(18) WAS @ (20) DAL(20) DAL56.08%
Sun Dec 03 2017(10) KC @ (24) NYJ(10) KC62.86%
Sun Dec 03 2017(26) HOU @ (11) TEN(11) TEN51.99%
Sun Dec 03 2017(14) DET @ (15) BAL(15) BAL58.15%
Sun Dec 03 2017(27) TB @ (17) GB(17) GB55.17%
Sun Dec 03 2017(29) IND @ (9) JAC(9) JAC80.17%
Sun Dec 03 2017(31) SF @ (25) CHI(25) CHI66.88%
Sun Dec 03 2017(4) NE @ (12) BUF(4) NE63.41%
Sun Dec 03 2017(28) DEN @ (21) MIA(28) DEN53.67%
Sun Dec 03 2017(6) CAR @ (5) NO(5) NO56.26%
Sun Dec 03 2017(3) MIN @ (8) ATL(3) MIN59.25%
Sun Dec 03 2017(32) CLE @ (19) LAC(19) LAC80.97%
Sun Dec 03 2017(30) NYG @ (16) OAK(16) OAK63.32%
Sun Dec 03 2017(7) LAR @ (22) ARI(7) LAR74.79%
Sun Dec 03 2017(1) PHI @ (13) SEA(1) PHI64.48%
Mon Dec 04 2017(2) PIT @ (23) CIN(2) PIT67.12%

With the Thursday Night Football game having already been played for Week 13, we are proud to inform you that Oracle has a 100% prediction rate thus far in the week, having given the Cowboys a 6% edge over the (18) Washington Redskins. The 38-14 victory marked the first time Dallas scored double-digit points since Week 9 against the Chiefs, and the fewest points allowed since Week 7 against the (31) San Francisco 49ers.

Impact game of the Week: DET @ BAL
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds across the largest number of teams.

If DET wins If BAL wins
DAL 6.17% DAL 7.54%
BUF 43.16% BUF 38.13%
BAL 70.21% BAL 87.61%
TEN 73.14% TEN 67.37%
DET 35.82% DET 14.93%
ATL 43.11% ATL 51.02%

Coming into this game, the Oracle is giving the edge to the Ravens at 58% over the Lions. We’ve already shown you that Baltimore is projected to claim the second Wild Card in the AFC with their playoff chances at about 63%. In contrast, the Lions just lost their footing for the second Wild Card in the NFC, dropping their playoff chances to 31%. Unfortunately for Detroit, at this point in the season it will be hard to manage a comeback with odds so low, represented by the fact that a win in this game would only raise their playoff chances 5%. On the other hand, a loss would expedite and nearly ensure a missed opportunity to make the playoffs in 2017. As for Baltimore, they are in a very good place, as even a loss would keep them above 70% playoff chances, likely enough to keep them in the second Wild Card at the very least. Buffalo will naturally hope for the NFC Lions to beat the AFC Ravens, as doing so would give the Bills a better chance of making up ground in the AFC Wild Card hunt, the opposite being true for the (8) Atlanta Falcons in the NFC. Beyond that, the Titans would certainly prefer a Lions victory in order to enlarge the gap between the second Wild Card team and themselves.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

If HOU wins Curr. Odds If TEN wins
HOU 3.36% HOU 1.80% HOU 0.01%
TEN 52.41% TEN 78.80% TEN 85.38%

In both of the selected Swing games this week, the focus is on the ability for one of the teams (who already knows their fate) to play spoiler for the opposing team. For the first game, we’ve chosen the (26) Houston Texans against the Titans. In this case, the emphasis is not on Texans and their miniscule odds of making the playoffs, but the already-discussed Titans. Tennessee has a legitimate shot to contend for the AFC South Division title, but at the very least they are in the strongest position to earn a Wild Card. Beating the division-rival Texans would go a long way to solidifying the Titans in that first Wild Card spot, and leave them in a solid position to fight for the division lead based off how the Jaguars perform. Should the Titans blow this opportunity, they may find themselves back in the trenches with a handful of other teams, all battling for a chance to keep their season alive.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

If PHI wins Curr. Odds If SEA wins
PHI 100.00% PHI 99.98% PHI 99.98%
SEA 24.99% SEA 44.80% SEA 57.92%

Whereas Houston’s fate is effectively sealed such that they will have to wait for 2018 to fight for a playoff spot, Philadelphia is in the opposite position: they have played their way into a very comfortable and sizable lead such that they can look forward to the 2017 playoffs. As such, even if the Eagles lose this game against the Seahawks, their playoff chances will remain unaffected. The same cannot be said for Seattle. The Seahawks are presently on the outside looking in, but not by much. Beating the best team in the NFL could give them a jolt that would make them a larger and more serious player in the NFC Wild Card hunt, whereas a loss (which Oracle believes will happen) would be one step above a death sentence to the Seahawks 2017 campaign.

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell.

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Posted in NFL | Comments Off on 2017 NFL Oracle – Week 13

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 12

There were plenty of good football games to choose between during Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season. Oracle ended up going 9-5 this past week, as some of those games had wild results. Take the (9) Los Angeles Rams: this was the team we’ve been telling you for weeks now is the favorite to not only win their division, but also represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Last week, they were favored at 58% over the (5) Minnesota Vikings. Now, you can quickly see this was a powerhouse match-up between two top-10 teams trending in the right direction. But even that wouldn’t have suggested a 24-7 victory for the Vikings, emphasis being placed on the margin of victory as opposed to the winning team. Turn your attention to the (8) Kansas City Chiefs against the (30) New York Giants, one of the league’s best against one of the league’s worst. Piece of cake, to the point Oracle gave Kansas City 75% odds! The end result? No touchdowns were scored throughout the entirety of this game, a game that was forced into overtime until the Giants kicked nailed a game-winning field goal. Of the many cliché sayings out there, at this time we will use the following: “it’s not the best team that wins, but the team that plays the best who wins on any given day.” So congratulations, Giants.

After a week of these tightly-played football games, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 12

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 1 12.9 99.7% 98.4% 81.6% 25.7%
2 NO 1 11.6 96.2% 75.2% 34.0% 10.9%
3 NE 1 11.9 99.1% 95.6% 72.6% 11.8%
4 PIT 2 11.6 99.4% 94.4% 62.9% 7.2%
5 MIN 11.9 97.1% 87.2% 60.5% 6.8%
6 CAR 3 10.3 74.9% 20.2% 7.7% 2.0%
7 JAC 2 10.9 98.0% 74.3% 44.4% 14.5%
8 KC 1 9.9 90.5% 87.1% 14.2% 2.9%
9 LAR 1 10.6 85.6% 78.2% 12.4% 10.8%
10 ATL 2 8.7 31.3% 4.6% 1.4% 0.5%
11 TEN 1 9.3 72.5% 24.7% 3.5% 1.4%
12 DET 3 9.3 48.1% 11.9% 1.6% 0.9%
13 SEA 2 8.7 30.1% 21.4% 0.5% 0.7%
14 BUF 8.0 33.1% 4.1% 0.9% 0.6%
15 GB 2 7.7 8.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2%
16 BAL 5 8.6 59.7% 5.5% 1.5% 1.9%
17 DAL 1 8.6 22.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4%
18 OAK 1 6.7 7.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1%
19 MIA 1 6.1 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
20 WAS 1 7.3 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
21 NYJ 1 6.4 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
22 LAC 3 7.3 15.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.2%
23 TB 4 6.1 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 CHI 2 6.0 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 HOU 1 6.7 8.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2%
26 CIN 2 6.4 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
27 ARI 4 6.1 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
28 DEN 4 5.7 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 5.1 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 2.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Whereas Week 11 witness little-to-no movement within the top-10, Week 12 was the exact opposite; only one team within the top-10 did not move one way or another in the rankings (the Vikings). (1) Philadelphia Eagles continue to fight for that top ranking, with the relatively newer competitor in the (2) New Orleans Saints, compared to the Chiefs in weeks past. (3) New England Patriots and (4) Pittsburgh Steelers continue their push toward the top, while Wild Card teams like the (6) Carolina Panthers need to right ship, and fast.

Using Oracle’s projection data, the presently-anticipated division winners are as follows:

Patriots (AFC East), Chiefs (AFC West), Steelers (AFC North), (7) Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South), Eagles (NFC East), Rams (NFC West), Vikings (NFC North), and Saints (NFC South). All familiar faces. Of those teams, the Jaguars have the closest divisional competitor in the (11) Tennessee Titans, as there is only a 49.6% spread between the two teams. We say “only” and yet that’s a large number, but the reasoning follows this line of logic: there can only be one division winner per division, so the greater one team’s chances are of winning that particular division, the smaller the other teams’ chances are within that division. Another way to look at this is as follows: the Jaguars have roughly 74% odds to win the AFC South, while the Titans have about 25%. Add the two figures up, and you get 99%, which means that there is a 1% chance the AFC South Champion will not be one of those two teams. With that in mind, no other division leader faces as close a threat as Jacksonville, keeping in mind “close” is relative.

Looking at the Wild Cards, a week ago it was the Panthers and (13) Seattle Seahawks in the NFC, and the Titans and (14) Buffalo Bills in the AFC. As of this morning, the second wild card in each conference has a new place-holder: the (12) Detroit Lions in the NFC and the (16) Baltimore Ravens in the AFC. We told you in Week 11 about the dance the Ravens were playing with the Bills; with Buffalo’s 54-24 implosion last week against the (22) Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore was able to take over that wild card, now boasting nearly 60% odds to make the playoffs. The Bills are still the nearest threat, but they fell from grace to 33% odds of making the playoffs. The Seahawks and the Lions each played extremely close games in their respective match-ups, both coming down to the wire and ending a three-point spread. Unfortunately for Seattle, they were on the lesser-of-two ends against the (10) Atlanta Falcons, dropping their odds of making the playoffs to 30%. To balance the scale, Detroit’s narrow win over the (24) Chicago Bears upped their odds to 48%, by no means secure, but certainly better than the Falcons and Seahawks who are having to look up at the NFC Wild Card currently.

For arguably the most interesting part, let’s look at the Super Bowl odds. Earlier we mentioned how we had been singing the praises of the Rams, particularly as they were the NFC-favorite for the Super Bowl. Until now. The Rams odds sank to about 11%, now tied with the Saints. However, the two teams aren’t neck-and-neck for first in this race. That position belongs to the undeterred Eagles, who now have better than 25% odds of making the Super Bowl! Anything can happen once playoffs begin, but for the time being, Philadelphia is giving no reason to doubt them. In the AFC, Jacksonville remains the favorite with New England hot on their tail, both teams treading water from last week with regards to their Super Bowl odds.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 12 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing game of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 12

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 23 2017(5) MIN @ (12) DET(5) MIN60.37%
Thu Nov 23 2017(22) LAC @ (17) DAL(17) DAL55.50%
Thu Nov 23 2017(30) NYG @ (20) WAS(20) WAS59.66%
Sun Nov 26 2017(24) CHI @ (1) PHI(1) PHI70.87%
Sun Nov 26 2017(32) CLE @ (26) CIN(26) CIN71.40%
Sun Nov 26 2017(23) TB @ (10) ATL(10) ATL58.74%
Sun Nov 26 2017(14) BUF @ (8) KC(8) KC58.16%
Sun Nov 26 2017(19) MIA @ (3) NE(3) NE72.56%
Sun Nov 26 2017(6) CAR @ (21) NYJ(6) CAR62.61%
Sun Nov 26 2017(11) TEN @ (29) IND(11) TEN70.60%
Sun Nov 26 2017(13) SEA @ (31) SF(13) SEA74.47%
Sun Nov 26 2017(2) NO @ (9) LAR(9) LAR50.42%
Sun Nov 26 2017(7) JAC @ (27) ARI(7) JAC77.74%
Sun Nov 26 2017(28) DEN @ (18) OAK(18) OAK53.03%
Sun Nov 26 2017(15) GB @ (4) PIT(4) PIT62.74%
Mon Nov 27 2017(25) HOU @ (16) BAL(16) BAL57.56%

Impact game of the Week: MIN @ DET
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If MIN wins If DET wins
DAL 19.67% DAL 14.83%
DET 30.19% DET 64.18%
MIN 99.36% MIN 93.14%
ATL 31.38% ATL 25.80%
CAR 74.92% CAR 70.34%
SEA 37.35% SEA 32.66%

We’ve already done an introduction to both of the teams participating in this NFC North match-up. For what it’s worth, the Vikings have a two-game lead over the Lions in the division, so no matter how this game plays out, their positioning will not change. As things currently stand, Minnesota is essentially a go for making the playoffs, as a loss to the Lions here would still only drop their playoff chances to 93%. As such, a win for Detroit is far more important than it would be for Minnesota; the Lions could have a 34% swing in their playoff chances depending on the outcome of this game. A win would likely keep Detroit in one of the two wild card spots, while a loss could drop them into the mix with Atlanta and Seattle, assuming those two teams remain where they are currently. Which is why you see the odds for the Falcons, Seahawks, and Panthers in this table. The former duo would love to see a Vikings win because they’re looking up at the Lions, while the latter would love to see a Vikings win because they’re looking down (not too far) at the Lions.

Swing game of the Week:
This is the game where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

If HOU wins Curr. Odds If BAL wins
HOU 21.47% HOU 7.81% HOU 2.54%
BAL 53.96% BAL 59.38% BAL 87.74%

For back-to-back weeks, we’re giving you the Monday Night Football game. The (25) Houston Texans belong to the AFC South, the division we discussed earlier where any team besides the Jaguars and Titans – the Texans and (29) Indianapolis Colts – have a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Best-case scenario for Houston is they pull out this game and at least give the appearance of making the AFC South more competitive. But the focus here is really on Baltimore. As you can see, a loss for the Ravens certainly wouldn’t help, but it wouldn’t be as significant a drop as one might expect, and they would remain above 50% with their chances of making the playoffs. No team is ever hoping to just squeak by though, so the Ravens will be coming out fighting tooth and nail for a win, as doing so would elevate their odds to near-lock status, hovering a couple points below 90%. Who knows if that puts them in the hunt for the division title with the Steelers (a long-shot given the lead Pittsburgh has accumulated), but at the very least it would secure their wild card spot, potentially stealing the Titans position as the top-seeded wild card team.

Saving the most important for last, today is Thanksgiving. Regardless of whether you celebrate this particular holiday or not, it is the manifestation of taking the time to reflect upon what it is we are thankful for, something that transcends any one day during the calendar year. With that in mind, thank you for your ongoing participation and interest in Oracle.

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 13 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington State

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Make that four-straight weeks for (12) Washington State as the projected Pac-12 participant in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Sweetening the deal even more, Oracle’s latest projection has (15) Texas Christian representing the Big 12 for back-to-back weeks. Consistency is key! (12) Washington State did not play this past weekend and, if we had to make an educated guess, it seems likely the Cougars were glued to their TVs seeing in-state and Week 13 rival (17) Washington defeat (79) Utah with a 38-yard field goal as time expired, a true moment of redemption for the Huskies kicker after missing an extra-point and field goal earlier in the game. The (17) Washington win just made this Saturday’s match-up all the more interesting: both teams are 6-2 in-conference, 9-2 overall, and are undefeated at home. Something’s got to give. Unlike (12) Washington State, (15) Texas Christian did not have the luxury of sitting at home during Week 12, having to travel across-state to Lubbock in order to take on (80) Texas Tech. That was about the extent of additional effort the Horned Frogs had to expend in comparison to the Cougars, as (15) Texas Christian put up 27 unanswered-points, only allowing a field goal to the Red Raiders in the first quarter. This win provided the long-awaited separation atop the Big 12 standings with regards to in-conference record, keeping (15) Texas Christian a game behind (8) Oklahoma and a game ahead of a handful of other conference opponents. Check out the updated standings for the respective conferences below, based off the Oracle rankings:

Pac-12 North: (12) Washington State, (17) Washington, (22) Stanford, (51) Oregon, (75) California, and (127) Oregon State

Pac-12 South: (6) Southern California, (44) Arizona, (53) Arizona State, (63) UCLA, (79) Utah, and (84) Colorado

Big 12: (8) Oklahoma, (15) Texas Christian, (28) Oklahoma State, (37) Iowa State, (50) West Virginia, (61) Texas, (65) Kansas State, (80) Texas Tech, (126) Kansas, and (128) Baylor

NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Alabama(11-0)--
2Wisconsin(11-0)--
3Clemson(10-1)--
4Georgia(10-1)--
5Miami FL_(10-0)--
6Southern California(10-2)--
7Notre Dame(9-2) 3
8Oklahoma(10-1)--
9Central Florida(10-0)--
10Penn State(9-2) 1
11Ohio State(9-2) 1
12Washington State(9-2) 5
13Auburn(9-2)--
14Boise State(9-2)--
15Texas Christian(9-2)--
16Memphis(9-1)--
17Washington(9-2) 1
18San Diego State(9-2) 1
19Michigan State(8-3) 1
20Toledo(9-2) 2
21Florida Atlantic(8-3) 7
22Stanford(8-3) 8
23Mississippi State(8-3) 8
24Louisiana State(8-3) 3
25Northwestern(8-3) 4
26South Carolina(8-3)--
27North Texas(8-3) 11
28Oklahoma State(8-3) 11
29Virginia Tech(8-3) 8
30Michigan(8-3) 9
31South Florida(9-1) 4
32Troy(8-2) 9
33Wake Forest(7-4) 10
34North Carolina State(7-4) 10
35Fresno State(8-3) 10
36Ohio(8-3) 11
37Iowa State(7-4) 2
38Northern Illinois(8-3) 9
39Kentucky(7-4) 7
40Army(8-3) 7
41Texas A&M(7-4) 9
42Iowa(6-5) 8
43Louisville(7-4) 10
44Arizona(7-4) 8
45Boston College(6-5) 9
46Central Michigan(7-4) 6
47Wyoming(7-4) 6
48Marshall(7-4) 8
49Alabama-Birmingham(7-4) 3
50West Virginia(7-4) 8
51Oregon(6-5) 8
52Houston(6-4) 8
53Arizona State(6-5) 3
54Virginia(6-5) 5
55Navy(6-4) 7
56Southern Methodist(6-5) 5
57Southern Mississippi(7-4) 5
58Akron(6-5) 15
59Colorado State(7-5) 4
60Missouri(6-5) 10
61Texas(6-5) 16
62Florida International(6-4) 7
63UCLA(5-6) 5
64Purdue(5-6) 14
65Kansas State(6-5) 15
66Western Michigan(6-5) 9
67Georgia Tech(5-5) 6
68Utah State(6-5) 8
69Mississippi(5-6) 9
70Arkansas State(6-3) 11
71Tulane(5-6) 17
72Georgia State(6-3) 7
73Appalachian State(6-4) 7
74Western Kentucky(6-5) 9
75California(5-6) 11
76Duke(5-6) 18
77Texas-San Antonio(6-4) 21
78Temple(5-6) 9
79Utah(5-6) 12
80Texas Tech(5-6) 12
81Buffalo(5-6) 6
82Syracuse(4-7) 11
83Nevada-Las Vegas(5-6) 8
84Colorado(5-6) 10
85Minnesota(5-6) 13
86Louisiana-Lafayette(5-5) 11
87Indiana(5-6) 14
88Old Dominion(5-6) 5
89Florida(4-6) 13
90Middle Tennessee State(5-6) 15
91Louisiana Tech(5-6) 8
92South Alabama(4-7) 13
93Florida State(4-6) 10
94Tennessee(4-7) 12
95Miami OH_(4-7) 11
96Maryland(4-7) 11
97Nebraska(4-7) 11
98Vanderbilt(4-7) 9
99Pittsburgh(4-7) 9
100Air Force(4-7) 5
101Rutgers(4-7) 9
102Louisiana-Monroe(4-6) 2
103Arkansas(4-7) 7
104Massachusetts(4-7) 4
105Eastern Michigan(4-7) 5
106New Mexico State(4-6) 2
107Idaho(3-7) 2
108Cincinnati(3-8) 1
109Connecticut(3-8) 3
110North Carolina(3-8) 6
111East Carolina(3-8) 8
112New Mexico(3-8) 3
113Brigham Young(3-9) 2
114Hawaii(3-8) 2
115Tulsa(2-9) 2
116Kent State(2-9) 2
117Ball State(2-9) 2
118Illinois(2-9) 1
119Coastal Carolina(2-9) 8
120Bowling Green State(2-9) 2
121Texas State(2-9) 1
122Nevada(2-9) 1
123Charlotte(1-10) 1
124Georgia Southern(1-9) 12
125San Jose State(1-11) 2
126Kansas(1-10) 2
127Oregon State(1-10) 1
128Baylor(1-10) 3
129Rice(1-10) 1
130Texas-El Paso(0-11)--

For all of the excitement of recent weeks, Week 12 was rather mundane in comparison. There was no shake up between the top-6, and only two changes in general in the top-10. (7) Notre Dame climbed three spots with their 24-17 victory over (55) Navy, while (10) Penn State returned to the upper echelon of teams thanks to the reemergence of Saquon Barkley as part of the all-offense 56-44 win over (97) Nebraska. Within the top-25, the two teams that took home the honor of greatest positive movement were (22) Stanford and (23) Mississippi State, each advancing (+8) in the rankings. In (22) Stanford’s case, the game against (75) California was defined by big plays for both teams, a missed field goal, a fake punt, and a late interception that ultimately led to a hard-fought 17-14 Cardinal win. For (23) Mississippi State, they, too, had their work cut out for them against (103) Arkansas; the two teams took turns delivering unanswered blows with each passing quarter: Razorbacks 14, Bulldogs 14, Razorbacks 7, Bulldogs 14. The pendulum repeatedly swung back-and-forth, but finally came to a stop leaning in (23) Mississippi State’s direction. Within that same grouping, (12) Washington State was our biggest negative mover (-5), attributable to the previously-discussed bye week.

Below, get a hold of Oracle’s newest component for NCAAF, the projections for the top-10 teams’ chances of making the 2017 College Football Playoff:

NCAAF Oracle – Chances to make the CFP

RankTeamRecordCFP Chances
1Alabama(11-0)94.76%
2Wisconsin(11-0)93.86%
3Clemson(10-1)61.06%
4Georgia(10-1)55.41%
5Miami FL_(10-0)44.34%
6Notre Dame(9-2)27.83%
7Oklahoma(10-1)13.84%
8Central Florida(10-0)8.38%
9Auburn(9-2)0.43%
10Washington State(9-2)0.05%

As a brief refresher or crash course, the College Football Playoff is a four-team playoff that results in a National Championship game following the two semifinal games. Looking at various factors throughout the season, the four teams are ranked and chosen by a 13-member committee. As you can see, heading into Week 13, Oracle favors (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, and (4) Georgia to be the selected teams for the College Football Playoff. (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin are practically shoe-ins at this point, but those last two spots are still up for grabs (and there is still the unlikely shot that the Crimson Tide or Badgers blow that cushioned lead they’ve worked so hard to earn). That next team itching to break through is (5) Miami_FL, who is only 11% behind (4) Georgia. The Hurricanes will have first crack at things, taking on Pittsburgh early on Friday. Depending on how this game plays out, the Bulldogs may have added pressure breathing down their necks as they play 24 hours later, against Georgia Tech. Keep in mind, rankings aren’t as clear-cut as being determined by a win or loss; there are far more contributing factors, including home-or-road and close-or-blowout. Both (5) Miami_FL and (4) Georgia will be on the road this week, so keep an eye on the finer details of each game to see possible implications for next week’s Oracle projections.

Notice that the rankings in this table are not the same as the Oracle rankings overall; instead, the rankings you see in this table are representative of the order of likelihood the teams have of making the Playoff. For comparison purposes, if we were to instead list the overall rankings for these 10 teams in order from greatest to least for CFP Chances, it would be as follows: (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami_FL, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Oklahoma, (9) Central Florida, (13) Auburn, and (12) Washington State.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Alabama 52% 10% 18% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 22% 37% 20% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Clemson 17% 21% 14% 9% 13% 14% 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Georgia 7% 20% 19% 10% 12% 17% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Miami FL_ 3% 11% 16% 15% 10% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 18% 27% 26% 15% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Notre Dame 0% 2% 8% 18% 16% 6% 1% 2% 6% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Oklahoma 0% 0% 3% 11% 17% 13% 5% 2% 6% 12% 16% 11% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Central Florida 0% 0% 1% 7% 16% 16% 8% 2% 0% 3% 12% 18% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9% 12% 15% 12% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
11 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 10% 16% 14% 6% 1% 2% 7% 12% 12% 8% 5% 2% 1% 0%
12 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 12% 5% 1% 0% 1% 6% 13% 15% 10% 4% 1% 0%
13 Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 17% 14% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 11% 11% 8% 5% 2% 1%
14 Boise State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9%
15 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 8% 16% 15% 8% 4% 6% 10% 11% 10%
16 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% 16% 15% 7% 1% 1% 3% 7% 10%
17 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 10% 14% 12% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 7%
18 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9% 6% 3% 2%
19 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 9% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% 2%
20 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 11% 11% 9% 4%

The top-5 has slowly become more solidified, particularly with (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin expected to maintain their current standing. Looking at the (3) spot, you’ll see that (4) Georgia actually has stronger odds than (3) Clemson of claiming the ranking. However, this is influenced by the fact that there is a 38% chance (3) Clemson could wind up in the top-2, compared to the 27% for (4) Georgia. With that in mind, the discrepancy in projections for (3) can be explained by those greater odds for the Tigers to move up, rather than being knocked down by the Bulldogs. Granted, that follows the assumption that both teams win, which isn’t necessarily a guarantee.

Some of the top match-ups should be between (1) Alabama and (13) Auburn in the latest rendition of the Iron Bowl and (12) Washington State and (17) Washington in the Apple Cup (a rivalry title that lacks the same grit-and-grind as the Iron Bowl). The outcome of the Iron Bowl won’t really have a huge impact on the rest of the NCAAF season, as (13) Auburn has less than a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoff and, as previously stated, (1) Alabama is all-but-locked-in. That being said, the Apple Cup will have interesting tremor effects, specifically for the Valero Alamo Bowl, as discussed at the beginning of this piece. The blessing-and-curse for (12) Washington State is that the game will be hosted by the rival Huskies. The curse? On paper, it’s generally harder to win on the road than it is at home and, in this case, the Huskies are 6-0 at home this season. The blessing? That lowers the expectations (to a degree) on the Cougars, meaning a closely-played loss wouldn’t necessarily destroy the chances for them to make the Valero Alamo Bowl, while a win on the road might be calculated as more impactful than a (17) Washington win at home.

Saving the most important for last, Thanksgiving is a mere two days away. Regardless of whether you celebrate this particular holiday or not, it is the manifestation of taking the time to reflect upon what it is we are thankful for, something that transcends any one day during the calendar year. With that in mind, thank you for your ongoing participation and interest in Oracle.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

>>

Posted in NCAAF | Comments Off on 2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

2017 NFL Oracle – Week 11

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 11

Bounce back! A week after posting a 7-6 projection mark, Oracle returned to form by going 11-3 for Week 10 of the 2017 NFL season. Those three incorrect picks were linked to the (16) Dallas Cowboys, (20) New York Jets, and (30) New York Giants. Just looking at the respective rankings for each of those teams can tell you that all three were, to some degree, in different tiers of the NFL landscape. The Cowboys were favored over the (12) Atlanta Falcons with 62% confidence, but ultimately lost 27-7. Without running back Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys offense struggled to manufacture points; it also didn’t help that Falcons defensive end Adrian Clayborn produced an Atlanta-record six sacks against Dak Prescott and the Dallas offensive line. We gave you this game as one of our two swing games last week, as the result would have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds for at least one of the two teams. With this loss, the Cowboys single-handedly dropped their Playoff Odds 20%, which was then dropped an additional 3% due to the outcomes of other games, bringing their current Playoff Odds to 34% (see below). A tier below the Cowboys in the playoff hunt, the Jets had been playing well and trending in the right direction, until their uneventful match-up against the (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game that saw only one touchdown. The Jets had been given nearly 61% odds to win this game, particularly since Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston was sidelined as he continues to rest his ailing shoulder. Instead, it was the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick who led the Bucs to an unconvincing win. With this loss, the Jets have effectively removed almost any possibility of making the playoffs, not that their odds were great to begin with. In the final tier are the Giants, a team ravaged with injuries to pretty much their entire receiving core. Still, New York was slotted up against the winless (31) San Francisco 49ers, giving the Giants 64% odds to scrape together a win. Surprisingly, there was plenty of offense in this game, as the scoreboard read 31-21 by game’s end. The only catch was that those 31 points belonged to the no-longer winless 49ers, who had an even bigger lead until Eli Manning connected for a touchdown in garbage time. Neither team had any chance of making the playoffs, so this game was ultimately inconsequential, but nonetheless, shame on the Giants and good job 49ers.

After a week of some tightly-played football games, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 11

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 NO 2 11.2 91.3% 71.8% 32.4% 14.1%
2 PHI 1 12.3 97.8% 91.4% 67.0% 11.4%
3 CAR 3 10.3 70.0% 24.9% 7.6% 2.5%
4 NE 1 11.5 97.1% 87.5% 61.5% 11.2%
5 MIN 2 11.2 91.3% 80.9% 39.0% 5.7%
6 PIT 2 11.3 97.8% 93.7% 55.4% 5.3%
7 KC 5 10.6 94.2% 91.2% 31.7% 5.9%
8 LAR 11.6 93.6% 81.8% 46.5% 21.2%
9 JAC 1 10.5 94.6% 63.1% 35.1% 15.0%
10 TEN 1 9.6 77.0% 35.9% 10.3% 1.9%
11 SEA 3 9.3 43.8% 17.8% 3.6% 0.9%
12 ATL 3 8.1 16.5% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3%
13 GB 4 8.1 13.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.2%
14 BUF 5 8.6 51.7% 11.5% 4.2% 1.0%
15 DET 4 9.0 35.4% 15.6% 1.5% 0.6%
16 DAL 4 9.0 34.0% 8.4% 1.4% 0.8%
17 OAK 4 7.3 16.8% 6.5% 0.3% 0.3%
18 MIA 2 6.5 6.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%
19 WAS 1 8.0 10.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
20 NYJ 2 6.7 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
21 BAL 8.2 44.2% 6.2% 1.3% 1.0%
22 CHI 6.3 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
23 ARI 1 6.7 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
24 DEN 1 6.3 5.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1%
25 LAC 5.8 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
26 HOU 6.3 4.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1%
27 TB 2 5.7 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 CIN 1 5.8 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
29 IND 1 5.1 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 3.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 1 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

What jumps out first is that, within the top-10, the (8) Los Angeles Rams were the only team that maintained their previous position in the rankings. With a 47-10 blowout win over the (14) Buffalo Bills, the (1) New Orleans Saints are the new king of the hill, impressive when considering they started the season 0-2 but have now gone on for seven straight wins, and counting. Trending-wise, this loss dropped the Bills in the rankings (-5), tied for the worst move with the (7) Kansas City Chiefs, a team affected by last week’s bye.

The favorites to win each of the eight divisions remained the same, although each and every favorite successfully increased their odds of winning their respective division heading into Week 11. That said, there was some movement in the wild card picture in both conferences: a week ago, we gave you, in order, the (3) Carolina Panthers and Cowboys in the NFC and the (10) Tennessee Titans and Bills in the AFC. As of today, the (11) Seattle Seahawks have replaced the Cowboys as the top-dog for that second wild card. For their part, the Panthers odds of making the playoffs rose from 62% to 70%. In the AFC, the wild card seeding remained the same, but the Titans now have a 77% chance of making the playoffs, up from 64% a week ago. On the other hand, the Bills are flirting with danger, dropping to 52% odds, a little too close for comfort to the (21) Baltimore Ravens who are sitting at 44% odds.

With regards to the 1st round bye, the (2) Philadelphia Eagles remain unchallenged in the NFC, but the (4) New England Patriots flip-flopped with the (6) Pittsburgh Steelers as the favorite for the AFC 1st round bye, as if the Patriots need an easier path to the Super Bowl. Get this though: the Rams increased their Super Bowl odds from about 18% to just over 21%, and their nearest competition in the NFC at present are the Saints at 14% (last week it was the Eagles at almost 16%, so the spread is more favorable for the Rams now). The (9) Jacksonville Jaguars are still the favorites to win the AFC at 15% (down from about 19%), but those Patriots are inching closer, now at 11%.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 11 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing game of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 11

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 16 2017(10) TEN @ (6) PIT(6) PIT54.11%
Sun Nov 19 2017(27) TB @ (18) MIA(27) TB50.11%
Sun Nov 19 2017(8) LAR @ (5) MIN(8) LAR58.14%
Sun Nov 19 2017(15) DET @ (22) CHI(15) DET57.55%
Sun Nov 19 2017(9) JAC @ (32) CLE(9) JAC87.38%
Sun Nov 19 2017(19) WAS @ (1) NO(1) NO68.72%
Sun Nov 19 2017(21) BAL @ (13) GB(21) BAL54.92%
Sun Nov 19 2017(23) ARI @ (26) HOU(26) HOU64.45%
Sun Nov 19 2017(7) KC @ (30) NYG(7) KC75.54%
Sun Nov 19 2017(14) BUF @ (25) LAC(14) BUF60.63%
Sun Nov 19 2017(4) NE @ (17) OAK(4) NE62.30%
Sun Nov 19 2017(28) CIN @ (24) DEN(24) DEN55.62%
Sun Nov 19 2017(2) PHI @ (16) DAL(2) PHI57.18%
Mon Nov 20 2017(12) ATL @ (11) SEA(11) SEA52.75%

Impact game of the Week: BAL @ GB
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If BAL wins If GB wins
DAL 33.21% DAL 29.91%
BUF 45.06% BUF 55.16%
BAL 61.96% BAL 36.06%
TEN 79.33% TEN 84.26%
GB 13.80% GB 31.70%

Coming into this game, the Ravens are favored over the (13) Green Bay Packers at 55%, with both teams fighting for a playoff spot. As we just told you, the Ravens are poised to steal that second wild card spot in the AFC, and a win here could seriously help them do that, increasing their playoff odds to 62%. A loss, and Baltimore would seriously hurt their chances of making the playoffs, although it wouldn’t be the final nail in the coffin by any means. While the Packers are nowhere near being as much in the hunt as the Ravens, we’ve been telling you that Green Bay has an opportunity to tread water to remain relevant, in case Aaron Rodgers is able to strap on that helmet before season’s end. Pulling out a win in Week 11 would help keep the Pack afloat, whereas a loss would basically end their season.

Logically, the Bills will be scoreboard watching this one, as the Ravens are their primary threat for that last wild card spot, so Buffalo will be rooting for their distant neighbors in the north. Likewise, a Packers win would go a long way in solidifying the Titans in that first wild card spot, even though a Ravens win wouldn’t necessarily hurt Tennessee’s chances.

Swing game of the Week:
This is the game where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds of at least one of the teams involved:

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

If ATL wins Curr. Odds If SEA wins
ATL 25.35% ATL 16.59% ATL 7.76%
SEA 32.15% SEA 43.78% SEA 65.28%

There were a few games this week that were worthy of consideration for the swing game of the week, but we ultimately chose this match-up due to the current standing of both teams. It also doesn’t hurt that this is the Monday Night Football game for Week 11. Oracle favors the Seahawks at roughly 53%, making this a potential flip a coin game in its own right. As you can see, Seattle has far better odds of making the playoffs as things stand, and we already touched on their positioning in that second wild card spot. A win here would do wonders to not only separate the Seahawks from the lurking Cowboys, but also close the gap on that first wild card spot with the Panthers. A loss would not necessarily be devastating, but it would keep things tight and interesting between Seattle and Dallas, especially depending upon what the Cowboys are able to do against the Eagles.

On the other sideline, Atlanta doesn’t necessarily have great odds at present, but that can change if they prove to be the better team on Monday. Let’s face it, 25% odds aren’t going to cut it when it comes to making the playoffs, and that’s the best case scenario for the Falcons, at least from this game. That 25% could rise to 30% depending upon how other games turn out, and Atlanta has to look at this long-term; it’s impossible for them to jump to the top of the wild card list in Week 11, but a strong performance here could lead to another in Week 12, then Week 13, etc. With all of that out of the way, should the Falcons remain shaky and lose this game, any hope of building towards a playoff spot would fade away.

Sure-fire picks (give or take)

Last week’s sure-fire picks (give or take) was a reunion with the (32) Cleveland Browns, the (15) Detroit Lions favored at 79%. Shockingly – no, that’s not sarcastic – this was a close and exciting game; the two teams exchanged blows through the first three quarters before the Lions stopped playing with their food and put up 14 points in the fourth quarter, giving Detroit a 38-24 victory. Not as shocking was the fact that there were several controversial calls made by Browns head coach Hue Jackson, including a quarterback sneak from beyond the 2-yard line with no timeouts and less than 15-seconds left in the first half. Guess what? Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer couldn’t extend the ball 2+ yards and time expired before he could call another play.

Now we’re going to be mean and throw the Browns right back into the ring as the Week 11 sure-fire pick (give or take) as they get ready for the Jaguars, who are favored at an insane 87%. Making matters worse for the Browns is that Kizer suffered a ribs injury in last week’s game against the Lions. While Kizer plans to suit up and start this weekend, don’t think that lethal Jaguars defense isn’t aware of that injury and looking to take advantage of it.

Flip a coin

The flip a coin game for Week 10 was between the (22) Chicago Bears and Packers, the Packers granted the slight advantage. Green Bay backed this up, producing a 23-16 win in a freezing game that has seemingly defined this rivalry.

With several games projected to be close, the one we’ll label as our flip a coin match-up is the Buccaneers and (18) Miami Dolphins. Despite the fact that Miami has the better ranking (+9), Oracle is giving Tampa Bay the better chance of winning this game at 50.11%. Going back to Week 7, both teams are 1-3 with each teams earning that lone win against the Jets. In that same time, both teams lost to the Panthers. Looking at the side-by-side, the Dolphins put up 31 points to the Buccaneers 15 in the wins against the Jets, and the Dolphins put up 21 points to the Buccaneers 3 in the loss against the Panthers. Still, Miami has lost three straight, whereas Tampa Bay is coming off a win. However you slice this, it is projected to be a close game, so we feel confident making this your flip a coin match-up.

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 12

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 12 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington State

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Impressively, (7) Washington State has retained its bid for the Pac-12 representative in the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl, extending their presence in our projection to three consecutive weeks. After jumping out to an early 13-0 lead in the first quarter, the Cougars managed to fend off (67) Utah late in the game, moving to 9-2 overall with the 33-25 victory. (6) Southern California has already secured the Pac-12 title, leaving (30) Stanford, (7) Washington State, (18) Washington, and (36) Arizona to fight for the Pac-12 spot in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Of those teams, (7) Washington State has the best overall record and is tied for the best record in-conference. This is where it is good timing for the Cougars to have their bye, while the other three teams compete in relatively uncompetitive games on paper. Looking ahead to Week 13, (30) Stanford will have a tough fight against (10) Notre Dame and (7) Washington State will challenge (18) Washington. All that in consideration, (7) Washington State remains the top projection out of the Pac-12.

For the Big 12, guess what, we’ve got a new program projected to enter the ring against (7) Washington State; (15) Texas Christian was unable to remain competitive with (8) Oklahoma last week, despite allowing 0 points in the second half. With their 38-20 loss, the Horned Frogs fell to 5-2 in-conference, placing them in a three-way tie for second with (17) Oklahoma State and (42) West Virginia (the Horned Frogs and Cowboys have the overall edge, sitting at 8-2 to the Mountaineers 7-3 record). Separating the Horned Frogs and Cowboys from the Mountaineers further is the fact that (42) West Virginia has to travel to face (8) Oklahoma in Week 13, not exactly the team you want to face to end your season. As things currently stand, the edge is granted to (15) Texas Christian over (17) Oklahoma State, due in no small part to the September 23rd match-up between the two teams: playing on the road, the Horned Frogs duked it out with the Cowboys in an early-season epic shootout, holding on for a 44-31 win. For those of you wondering, a win like that on the road is absolutely a factor as Oracle projects which teams have the best odds of playing in the 25th anniversary of the Valero Alamo Bowl.

Should (15) Texas Christian make an appearance, it would mark only their second trip deep in the heart of Texas, although that one other occasion was the infamous 2016 slugfest with the Oregon Ducks that took three overtimes before the Horned Frogs could put an end to the madness. As for (7) Washington State, this would be their second appearance as well. However, it has been far longer since the Cougars took this stage, going all the way back to 1994 in a 10-3 win over Baylor, just the second year of existence for the Valero Alamo Bowl.

Here’s an updated look at the standings in the respective conferences:

Pac-12 North: (30) Stanford, (7) Washington State, (18) Washington, (64) California, (59) Oregon, and (126) Oregon State.

Pac-12 South: (6) Southern California, (36) Arizona, (56) Arizona State, (58) UCLA, (67) Utah, and (74) Colorado.

Big 12: (8) Oklahoma, (17) Oklahoma State, (42) West Virginia, (15) Texas Christian, (77) Texas, (39) Iowa State, (80) Kansas State, (68) Texas Tech, (127) Baylor, and (124) Kansas.

NCAAF Oracle – Week 12

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Alabama(10-0) 1
2Wisconsin(10-0) 2
3Clemson(9-1)--
4Georgia(9-1) 3
5Miami FL_(9-0) 5
6Southern California(9-2)--
7Washington State(9-2) 1
8Oklahoma(9-1) 3
9Central Florida(9-0) 2
10Notre Dame(8-2) 5
11Penn State(8-2) 4
12Ohio State(8-2) 5
13Auburn(8-2) 7
14Boise State(8-2) 5
15Texas Christian(8-2) 6
16Memphis(8-1) 3
17Oklahoma State(8-2) 9
18Washington(8-2) 4
19San Diego State(8-2) 7
20Michigan State(7-3) 4
21Michigan(8-2) 3
22Toledo(8-2) 4
23Troy(8-2) 2
24North Carolina State(7-3) 8
25Ohio(8-2) 17
26South Carolina(7-3) 5
27Louisiana State(7-3) 6
28Florida Atlantic(7-3) 6
29Northwestern(7-3)--
30Stanford(7-3) 11
31Mississippi State(7-3) 10
32Kentucky(7-3) 5
33Army(8-2) 3
34Iowa(6-4) 11
35South Florida(8-1) 13
36Arizona(7-3) 1
37Virginia Tech(7-3) 10
38North Texas(7-3)--
39Iowa State(6-4) 11
40Marshall(7-3) 10
41Wyoming(7-3) 4
42West Virginia(7-3) 5
43Wake Forest(6-4) 9
44Houston(6-3) 14
45Fresno State(7-3) 4
46Alabama-Birmingham(7-3) 7
47Northern Illinois(7-3) 1
48Navy(6-3) 8
49Virginia(6-4) 10
50Texas A&M(6-4) 4
51Southern Methodist(6-4) 11
52Central Michigan(6-4) 6
53Louisville(6-4) 9
54Boston College(5-5) 10
55Florida International(6-3) 9
56Arizona State(5-5) 13
57Western Michigan(6-4) 6
58UCLA(5-5) 10
59Oregon(5-5) 8
60Mississippi(5-5) 11
61Georgia Tech(5-4) 20
62Southern Mississippi(6-4) 2
63Colorado State(6-5) 8
64California(5-5) 7
65Georgia State(6-3) 8
66Appalachian State(6-4) 1
67Utah(5-5) 8
68Texas Tech(5-5) 4
69Temple(5-5) 19
70Missouri(5-5) 15
71Syracuse(4-6) 11
72Minnesota(5-5) 23
73Akron(5-5) 8
74Colorado(5-6) 13
75Middle Tennessee State(5-5) 5
76Utah State(5-5) 10
77Texas(5-5) 6
78Purdue(4-6) 3
79South Alabama(4-6) 19
80Kansas State(5-5) 10
81Arkansas State(5-3) 12
82Tennessee(4-6) 5
83Western Kentucky(5-5) 7
84Miami OH_(4-6) 19
85Maryland(4-6) 3
86Nebraska(4-6) 12
87Buffalo(4-6) 13
88Tulane(4-6) 13
89Vanderbilt(4-6) 11
90Pittsburgh(4-6) 11
91Nevada-Las Vegas(4-6) 4
92Rutgers(4-6) 8
93Old Dominion(4-6) 16
94Duke(4-6) 3
95Air Force(4-6) 9
96Arkansas(4-6) 4
97Louisiana-Lafayette(4-5) 3
98Texas-San Antonio(5-4) 9
99Louisiana Tech(4-6) 6
100Louisiana-Monroe(4-5) 10
101Indiana(4-6) 4
102Florida(3-6) 6
103Florida State(3-6) 6
104New Mexico State(4-5) 5
105Idaho(3-6) 3
106Connecticut(3-7) 2
107Cincinnati(3-7) 1
108Massachusetts(3-7) 8
109New Mexico(3-7) 3
110Eastern Michigan(3-7) 3
111Brigham Young(3-8) 8
112Hawaii(3-7) 2
113Tulsa(2-8) 2
114Kent State(2-8) 1
115Ball State(2-8) 3
116North Carolina(2-8) 7
117Illinois(2-8) 3
118Bowling Green State(2-8) 3
119East Carolina(2-8) 2
120Texas State(2-8) 2
121Nevada(2-8) 3
122Charlotte(1-9) 2
123San Jose State(1-10)--
124Kansas(1-9)--
125Coastal Carolina(1-9) 1
126Oregon State(1-9) 1
127Baylor(1-9)--
128Rice(1-9)--
129Georgia Southern(0-9)--
130Texas-El Paso(0-10)--

As you can see, there was no shortage of exciting movement in the rankings: playing it tight into the 4th quarter against (31) Mississippi State, (1) Alabama remained undefeated as they rolled right on back atop the leaderboard; (2) Wisconsin and baby-Badger-bruiser Jonathan Taylor stayed in the hunt with their 38-14 victory over (34) Iowa, who plummeted 11 spots in the rankings; (4) Georgia got absolutely embarrassed by the surging (13) Auburn Tigers who continued to scratch on the door of the top-10, helped out most recently by this 40-17 win.

There’s clearly plenty of good games with serious ramifications that we could go on about, but two had a way of separating themselves from the herd: (5) Miami_FL and (12) Ohio State. Let’s start where it’s hot before moving north for an icy rivalry game. In the eyes of many, the U is back, now with an exclamation point following that after the Hurricanes took it to (10) Notre Dame in a message-sending game. With this 41-8 rout, (5) Miami_FL effectively stripped (10) Notre Dame down to just the Fighting Irish. It’s hard to say the U can do anything quietly, but they’re now 9-0 on the season and are headed to the ACC Championship with their eyes set on the College Football Playoff. Turning our attention to the north, (12) Ohio State got ready for the latest rendition of their rivalry with “the other” Michigan school, (20) Michigan State. Those looking for a battle of exchanging blows would have been sorely disappointed; the Buckeyes came out swinging with two touchdowns in the first, continuing the pounding in the second quarter with 21 more points. For their effort, the Spartans didn’t just stand there and take this beating, as they flailed an arm in desperation with a field goal before the half was over. The second half was simply a matter of technicality, as (12) Ohio State cushioned their lead with an additional 13 points before winning handily.

Staying in-state, (25) Ohio earned the designation as our best positive mover of the week within the top-25 (+17) thanks to a 38-10 win over (22) Toledo. Unfortunately for them, (19) San Diego State received the opposing honors from dropping the most in the rankings (-7), a tough break for the Aztecs considering they were on a bye this past week. Let’s see if veteran running back Rashaad Penny can put his team on his back and keep (19) San Diego State on the outskirts of the top-20.

NCAAF Oracle: Poll prediction feature for Week 12

The current top 20 teams are listed in the columns below. In the rows, we indicate the chances each team has to be ranked in that column by the end of the week.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Alabama 42% 33% 18% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 40% 12% 10% 15% 13% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Clemson 10% 23% 18% 12% 15% 13% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Georgia 8% 21% 17% 5% 5% 13% 16% 11% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Miami FL_ 0% 6% 16% 18% 8% 3% 5% 10% 14% 11% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Southern California 0% 4% 14% 18% 12% 6% 8% 12% 12% 9% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 15% 23% 25% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Oklahoma 0% 0% 1% 5% 13% 18% 17% 14% 12% 10% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Central Florida 0% 0% 3% 8% 13% 13% 8% 4% 3% 6% 10% 11% 10% 6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Notre Dame 0% 0% 3% 10% 16% 13% 6% 1% 0% 1% 4% 9% 13% 12% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
11 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 13% 13% 9% 4% 1% 1% 4% 9% 13% 12% 7% 2% 0% 0%
12 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 12% 12% 9% 5% 4% 8% 12% 13% 9% 4% 1% 0%
13 Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 5% 3%
14 Boise State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 9% 14% 13% 7% 4% 5% 9% 11% 10% 7%
15 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 9% 12% 11% 7% 4% 4% 6% 8% 9% 8%
16 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 8% 10% 10% 8% 5% 3% 2% 3% 6% 7%
17 Oklahoma State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 6% 10% 11% 9% 6% 3% 2% 2%
18 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 11% 9% 5% 2% 2% 2%
19 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 10% 13% 11% 7% 3%
20 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 9% 13% 12% 7% 3% 1%

Once again, the number of teams vying for the (1) ranking has been trimmed of excess fat, leaving us with (1) Alabama at 42%, (2) Wisconsin at 40%, (3) Clemson at 10%, (4) Georgia at 8%. It appears as if (2) Wisconsin might have the toughest match-up in Week 12, taking on (21) Michigan at home. This isn’t to say the other three contenders will have a cake-walk, but with (1) Alabama facing Mercer, (3) Clemson facing Citadel, and (4) Georgia facing (32) Kentucky, it’s not as if any of these games are must-watch television.

Two interesting games to keep an eye on, in terms of potential movement, would be with (5) Miami_FL and (6) Southern California. In Miami’s case, they’re by all means trending in the right direction, and their competition – (49) Virginia – is trending in the wrong direction, not to mention the U is home. While the Hurricanes can’t claim that dubious (1) spot, there is a 6% chance of them emerging from Week 12 at (2). However, should the improbable happen and they lose their unbeaten bid this week, Miami could plummet all the way back down to (12), a crushing blow after all the strides they have taken. A loss would most likely secure them between (8) and (10), but to even consider blowing this game would be sacrilege to the Hurricanes. As for (6) Southern California, their game is hands-down more intriguing on paper, as it is against cross-town rival (58) UCLA. Coming into this season, the narrative was centered around Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold and Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen as the front-runners for the Heisman, and the top-available quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. As of a week ago, neither field general was even on the ESPN Heisman Watch, as both have gone through rough stretches throughout this season. While the Bruins season is effectively over at this point, (6) Southern California still has a 4% chance of climbing to (2) this week, assuming there is some external help. With an overall record of 9-2 and an in-conference record of 7-1, not only have the Trojans clinched the Pac-12, but there is still hope for them to secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff. If the Bruins can play spoiler at the Los Angeles Coliseum, all of that hope for (6) Southern California could quickly dissipate, with potential for the Trojans to fall to (12). More likely, however, would be a braced-fall anywhere from (7) to (10), but this still would not be enough to hold onto any hope. All that said, (5) Miami_FL and (6) Southern California find themselves in similar situations heading into Week 12, and both want a taste of that top-4, but to break through that ceiling, they’ll have to indirectly go through four formidable foes: the Crimson Tide, Badgers, Tigers, and Bulldogs.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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2017 NFL Oracle – Week 10

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 10

Let’s call Week 9 a (slightly) humbling experience for Oracle; after selecting games at a 75% success rate over the prior two weeks, Oracle was only 7-6 in projections this past week. If we were forced to pick one of those incorrect projections that was a surprise, on first glace it would be (26) Houston Texans losing at home to (28) Indianapolis Colts, as Houston was favored at nearly 78%. However, as was noted last week, these projections – and their respective confidence levels – were finalized only hours before Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a torn ACL, seriously evening the playing field on Sunday. Two of the other incorrect picks were each decided by a mere three points, (21) Baltimore Ravens losing to the (11) Tennessee Titans who keep finding ways to narrowly win football games, and (14) Seattle Seahawks coming back with too little too late against (20) Washington Redskins. That leaves (2) Kansas City Chiefs, (9) Buffalo Bills, and (17) Green Bay Packers, who averaged a 12.3 deficit in their combined losses this past weekend. The highest confidence level Oracle had in any of these games was the Bills at about 61% over (18) New York Jets, so it’s not like blowouts were anticipated in the wrong direction. That being said, the fact that all three of these games were kept within two possessions is somewhat reassuring, although it doesn’t change the outcome. In fact, as you will see below with updated trends, the Ravens and Packers had the least-friendly movement in the new rankings (-6).

With some of these unprecedented outcomes, check out how the playoff picture has changed from a week ago:

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 10

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 PHI 1 12.2 98.2% 86.1% 70.1% 15.7%
2 KC 1 10.5 93.4% 89.9% 39.4% 10.1%
3 NO 3 10.9 88.2% 71.5% 31.2% 8.3%
4 PIT 1 11.2 96.9% 92.4% 62.2% 8.1%
5 NE 1 10.9 91.8% 76.2% 45.4% 4.4%
6 CAR 1 9.9 62.6% 25.7% 7.4% 1.4%
7 MIN 2 10.9 87.7% 79.7% 35.1% 5.7%
8 LAR 1 11.2 90.8% 79.8% 43.6% 17.7%
9 BUF 1 9.0 58.9% 19.8% 8.0% 1.3%
10 JAC 4 10.2 88.0% 63.2% 31.6% 18.7%
11 TEN 5 9.3 64.0% 34.3% 9.2% 1.7%
12 DAL 7 9.6 57.2% 13.5% 6.7% 1.8%
13 OAK 5 7.3 15.8% 6.3% 0.6% 0.3%
14 SEA 4 9.0 37.1% 18.2% 3.5% 1.0%
15 ATL 3 7.4 10.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2%
16 MIA 3 7.1 13.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2%
17 GB 6 7.7 10.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2%
18 NYJ 4 7.3 12.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2%
19 DET 2 8.6 30.9% 16.0% 1.4% 0.6%
20 WAS 3 8.3 19.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
21 BAL 6 8.2 40.1% 7.1% 2.1% 1.5%
22 CHI 5 6.7 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
23 DEN 3 6.7 8.7% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1%
24 ARI 3 7.1 4.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
25 LAC 1 6.1 3.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
26 HOU 1 6.7 7.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1%
27 CIN 1 6.1 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
28 IND 1 5.5 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
29 TB 1 4.8 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NYG 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 CLE 2.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 SF 2.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Should we even be surprised that (1) Philadelphia Eagles flip-flopped again with Kansas City? As noted above, the Chiefs dropped courtesy of their loss to the (12) Dallas Cowboys, unable to prevent them from scoring in each quarter. As a reward for overpowering the formerly-top-ranked team, the Cowboys experienced our largest positive trend (+7). Flying back atop their comfortable perch overlooking the NFL landscape, the Eagles provided one of two 51-point games this week, easily breaking the (23) Denver Broncos and leaving that mile-high defense panting for breath. The other 51-point bludgeoning came from (8) Los Angeles Rams, making the (30) New York Giants cower and quiver on their own turf.

Last week’s divisional-favorites remained the same this go around, but there has been some jostling for position in the wildcard race. Previously, the Seahawks and Ravens were in position to receive the first wild card in the NFC and second wild card in the AFC, respectively. With that loss to the Redskins – among other factors – not only did the Seahawks lose that first wild card positioning to (6) Carolina Panthers, but they self-destructed to the point of conceding the second wild card in the NFC to those Cowboys on the come-up. On the AFC side of the coin, after losing to the Titans on Sunday, the Ravens ever-so-graciously shook their opponents’ hands, giving Tennessee that second wild card seed for the time being. Remember, none of this is anywhere close to being in the bag, but don’t think these games won’t ultimately matter down the stretch when comparing head-to-head records.

The Eagles and (4) Pittsburgh Steelers are still the favorites for a first round bye in each conference, just as the Rams and (10) Jacksonville Jaguars are still our projected Super Bowl LII contestants. The Eagles are still hot on the tails of both teams, while the Chiefs stumbled and subsequently lost precious ground, although it is still more than possible to atone for that error.

Now that we’ve had our fun, back to reality for the Week 10 predictions, with the addition of our Impact game of the Week and Swing games of the Week.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 10

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 09 2017(14) SEA @ (24) ARI(14) SEA68.37%
Sun Nov 12 2017(3) NO @ (9) BUF(3) NO60.16%
Sun Nov 12 2017(18) NYJ @ (29) TB(18) NYJ60.90%
Sun Nov 12 2017(17) GB @ (22) CHI(17) GB54.01%
Sun Nov 12 2017(4) PIT @ (28) IND(4) PIT74.58%
Sun Nov 12 2017(27) CIN @ (11) TEN(11) TEN63.33%
Sun Nov 12 2017(7) MIN @ (20) WAS(7) MIN60.39%
Sun Nov 12 2017(25) LAC @ (10) JAC(10) JAC73.16%
Sun Nov 12 2017(31) CLE @ (19) DET(19) DET79.27%
Sun Nov 12 2017(26) HOU @ (8) LAR(8) LAR64.14%
Sun Nov 12 2017(12) DAL @ (15) ATL(12) DAL62.27%
Sun Nov 12 2017(30) NYG @ (32) SF(30) NYG63.93%
Sun Nov 12 2017(5) NE @ (23) DEN(5) NE59.98%
Mon Nov 13 2017(16) MIA @ (6) CAR(6) CAR62.71%

Impact game of the Week: CIN @ TEN
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If CIN wins If TEN wins
DAL 56.28% DAL 56.27%
BUF 64.04% BUF 58.63%
BAL 50.03% BAL 45.89%
CIN 6.04% CIN 0.63%
TEN 49.74% TEN 77.53%

We’re all looking at this table shown above – great. How should you interpret this data? The percentages displayed here are purely for the odds of each team in each of the two situations making the playoffs. In addition to this, it is important to recognize that these playoff odds are how they would be impacted by the outcome of this particular game, not accounting for the outcome of other games. With that in mind, let’s dig deeper.

Dallas doesn’t really care what happens between (27) Cincinnati Bengals and Titans; instead, the Cowboys can turn their attention to their own game against (15) Atlanta Falcons. As Buffalo and Tennessee are presently competing for the top wild card in the AFC, the Bills would greatly appreciate it if the Bengals could find a way to win this game in order to provide some breathing room. However, even if the Titans win (by three) again, the Bills are still more likely than not to make the playoffs. Sitting at 40% odds of making the playoffs at present, Baltimore could also use a Bengals victory to have a better chance at the second AFC wild card over the Titans. As for the two teams actually playing in this match-up, the Titans could go a long way towards securing a playoff spot, whether that be via the division by breaking the tie with Jacksonville for sole possession of the AFC South lead, or keeping pace and shooting for a wild card at the bare minimum. Cincinnati, your season has pretty much been over for a while now, so tuck your tail between your legs and hope for a better 2018 campaign.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds of at least one of teams involved:

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons

If DAL wins Curr. Odds If ATL wins
DAL 65.90% DAL 57.28% DAL 37.55%
ATL 3.51% ATL 10.29% ATL 13.52%

Dallas, didn’t we tell you to focus on Atlanta? There’s a reason we said that. With a win, you could leave your fate in your own hands for Week 10 and jump by over 8% in playoff chances, while a loss would be a crushing blow to “America’s Team,” nearly a 20% skydive. The Falcons are essentially clawing for any remaining hope, shocking after appearing for 3/4 of last year’s Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

If SEA wins Curr. Odds If ARI wins
SEA 55.63% SEA 37.10% SEA 28.83%
ARI 0.12% ARI 4.37% ARI 1.64%

The Rams are still our NFC Super Bowl favorite, are now a game above their division-rivals in Seattle, and have a favorable match-up against the Texans this upcoming week. As such, Seattle basically needs to win this game against (24) Arizona Cardinals to remain relevant in the wild card race, if not the division. Like many other teams at this point, the Cardinals can really only play spoiler

Sure-fire picks (give or take)

Well, last week we told you the Texans over the Colts was our sure-fire picks (give or take)…looks like it was more of the “give or take” than “sure-fire.” We won’t spend too much time on this though, as we’ve already discussed at great lengths the quarterback injury Houston suffered.

This week we are pleased to welcome back (31) Cleveland Browns to this category. In Week 10, the Browns will face-off against (19) Detroit Lions, the Lions favored at over 79%. Unsurprisingly, the Browns have 0.00% chance of making the playoffs as things currently stand (we wanted to provide decimal places to show you we weren’t rounding unfavorably), and this likelihood will not change, regardless of who wins this game. But here’s where things get interesting: heading into this match-up, the Lions have 30.4% odds of making the playoffs. Should the Browns somehow win on Sunday, the Lions odds would logically drop, in this case to 13.24%. Even if reality plays out as is easily-predictable and Detroit wins, their playoff odds would still drop, in this case to 27.50%. Here’s where we’d like to remind you that these odds, as represented here, are purely based off the outcome of this game. So, if the Lions odds will drop no matter what happens in this game, that is indicative of the fact that Detroit’s fate is largely out of its owns hands for Week 10. Ideally (from the Lions’ perspective) the (7) Minnesota Vikings will lose to the Redskins, diminishing the NFC North lead the Vikings currently have.

Flip a coin

The flip a coin match-up for Week 9 involved the team we just put in our sure-fire picks (give or take) for Week 10: the Detroit Lions. Last week, they were considered the underdogs against the Packers, who were favored at roughly 56%. However, as was mentioned at the beginning of this piece, the Lions pounced on the wounded Packers for an easy-enough 30-17 win.

It seems that Week 10 is putting the NFC North under the microscope, as the flip a coin game this week is the Packers against the (22) Chicago Bears. Once again, the Packers are favorites, by a slight edge of 4% in the latest edition of the NFL’s longest-running rivalry. Interestingly enough, should Chicago force Green Bay into a tie for last-place in the division, the two teams would have nearly identical playoff odds of 7.61% and 6.88% respectively. However, the Packers have the edge for now, as they currently have 11% odds to the Bears 2.21% odds coming into this battle. As such, should the Packers win as Oracle projects, they could elevate their odds to 24.41% while practically crushing whatever remaining hope the Bears have of making the playoffs. Think of it this way: if the Packers win, there’s still some life for them and, should they manage to tread water and find a way to limp into the playoff hunt, what’s stopping Aaron Rodgers from suiting up and giving his team that spark (besides his recovering broken collarbone)?

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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2017 Challenge – Week 10 Results

Week 10 Consensus Picks by Affiliation Season
__Affiliation__ Week PCT Season PCT
Other 73.81% 75% 92% 100% 83% 75% 33% 50% 100% 58% 83% 58% 25% 100% 100% 64.78%
Student 72.50% 95% 100% 95% 95% 85% 30% 35% 90% 50% 95% 30% 30% 85% 100% 62.49%
Computer 72.02% 83% 75% 92% 83% 100% 25% 83% 100% 75% 83% 17% 17% 92% 83% 61.42%
Alumni 70.27% 86% 100% 95% 92% 70% 22% 41% 84% 59% 84% 41% 35% 92% 84% 61.25%
Faculty/Staff 66.67% 76% 90% 95% 100% 48% 29% 24% 81% 48% 81% 52% 29% 90% 90% 59.87%
Week 10 Picks Season
Rk __Entry_Name__ Win-Loss Rk Record PCT
7 Mark Montalbano 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF TB CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 1 103-43 71%
2 Jonathan Prescott 12-2 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 2 99-47 68%
39 Jordan Bruce 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 3 98-48 67%
2 Chris DiPaolo 12-2 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR SF ATL NE CAR 4 97-49 66%
39 Craig Mills 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 4 97-49 66%
7 Keener STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 4 97-49 66%
7 Will Farner 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 4 97-49 66%
7 Massey STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 8 96-50 66%
7 Marie Lutz 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 8 96-50 66%
39 Marc Goodrich 10-4 SEA PIT DET LAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 10 95-51 65%
7 NFL Oracle 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 10 95-51 65%
7 Chris Fanick 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI CIN MIN LAR SF ATL NE CAR 12 94-52 64%
7 Maddie Heliste 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 12 94-52 64%
7 Bob Nicholson 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 12 94-52 64%
68 Chris Robinson 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 15 93-53 64%
7 Colley STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 15 93-53 64%
7 Douglas Dellmore 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 15 93-53 64%
39 Johnny Biology 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 15 93-53 64%
39 Dillon Wolf 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 15 93-53 64%
2 Bryan Fowler 12-2 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB GB TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
68 Brian Miceli 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF TB CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
68 Brent Morgan 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN HOU NYG DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
7 Diana Riddle 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 20 92-40 70%
2 Liza Southwick 12-2 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
7 Josh Moczygemba 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF ATL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
39 Ghost of Tony Romo 10-4 SEA IND DET JAC NO TB GB TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
39 PageRank STAT 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
39 Steven Hargis 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
39 Sam Hyden 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 20 92-54 63%
7 Biased Voter STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
39 Patrick Pringle 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL DEN CAR 30 91-55 62%
85 stella artois 8-6 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB CIN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
7 Best OFF STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
7 Oracle/Wins STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
7 Reese Murphy 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
2 Ryan Reynolds 12-2 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR SF ATL NE CAR 30 91-55 62%
85 Alexander Krantz 8-6 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI CIN MIN LAR NYG DAL DEN CAR 37 90-56 62%
39 Ben Newhouse 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
7 Christina Cooley 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
39 Damon Bullis 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
7 David Wood 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
7 Eric Suhler 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR SF ATL NE CAR 37 90-55 62%
7 Harry Wallace 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
68 Valerie Schweers 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 37 90-56 62%
7 Jim Freeman 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 45 89-57 61%
7 Jeremy Lynch 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 45 89-57 61%
39 OFF Yds STAT 10-4 ARI IND DET LAC NO TB GB TEN WAS LAR SF ATL NE CAR 45 89-57 61%
85 Clint Schroeder 8-6 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
39 Deven Nongbri 10-4 ARI PIT DET LAC NO TB CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
39 Dylan Holland 10-4 SEA PIT CLE JAC NO TB GB TEN WAS HOU SF DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
7 Tanner Kohfield 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB GB TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 48 88-44 67%
39 Liam Crawley 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
85 Michele Johnson 8-6 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI CIN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
68 Michael Dennis 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
39 Kevin Davis 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 48 88-58 60%
7 Davis King 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 56 87-59 60%
85 Jordan Bethea 8-6 ARI PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG DAL DEN CAR 56 87-59 60%
68 Dylan Hendel 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN MIN HOU NYG DAL NE CAR 56 87-59 60%
39 Ryan Gray 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ GB CIN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 59 86-60 59%
7 Shawn Sunday 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 59 86-59 59%
85 Tim Ward 8-6 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN MIN HOU NYG DAL NE CAR 59 86-60 59%
85 Tim O’Sullivan 8-6 ARI PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 59 86-60 59%
7 WinPct STAT 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 59 86-60 59%
68 Enrique Alcoreza 9-5 SEA PIT DET LAC NO TB CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL DEN CAR 64 85-61 58%
7 Jesse Gamble 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 64 85-48 64%
39 Mitchell Kight 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 64 85-61 58%
68 Matt Sidhom 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 64 85-61 58%
85 Susan Coker 8-6 SEA PIT DET LAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE MIA 64 85-61 58%
68 Tom Tegtmeyer 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR SF DAL NE CAR 69 84-62 58%
68 Adam Mueller 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 70 83-47 64%
1 Braxton Bartlett 13-1 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB GB TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 70 83-47 64%
39 Rebecca Cook 10-4 ARI PIT DET JAC NO TB GB TEN MIN HOU NYG DAL NE CAR 70 83-63 57%
7 Joshua Adame 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF TB CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 70 83-50 62%
7 Dale Cochran 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO TB GB CIN MIN HOU SF DAL NE CAR 74 82-64 56%
39 Jacob Tingle 10-4 ARI PIT DET JAC BUF TB CHI TEN MIN HOU SF ATL NE CAR 74 82-48 63%
39 Kipp Smithers 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR SF DAL NE MIA 76 81-50 62%
39 Joshua Hernandez 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 76 81-52 61%
68 Kevin McIntyre 9-5 SEA PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI TEN MIN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 76 81-52 61%
39 Matthew Jones 10-4 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 79 80-53 60%
96 Rick McMullen 7-7 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ CHI TEN WAS HOU NYG DAL DEN CAR 80 79-67 54%
7 TD Gunslinger 11-3 SEA PIT DET JAC NO NYJ GB TEN WAS LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 80 79-67 54%
85 DEF Yds STAT 8-6 SEA IND DET JAC NO TB GB TEN WAS HOU NYG DAL NE MIA 82 78-68 53%
96 Finlay McCracken 7-7 SEA PIT CLE JAC BUF NYJ GB TEN WAS HOU NYG DAL NE CAR 82 78-68 53%
96 Mary Love 7-7 ARI PIT DET JAC BUF NYJ CHI CIN MIN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 82 78-68 53%
39 Callum Squires 10-4 ARI PIT DET JAC NO TB GB TEN MIN LAR NYG ATL DEN MIA 85 77-53 59%
100 Best DEF STAT 5-9 ARI IND CLE LAC NO TB GB TEN WAS HOU SF DAL DEN MIA 85 77-69 53%