2nd Annual NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge – 2017

Welcome to the NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge!

Sign up to receive Challenge reminders

Do you think you can pick winners of NFL games better than a computer? Can you beat the students in the Sports Analytics Seminar (STAT seminar)? We invite you join the challenge and help the STAT seminar. Last season we started with over 150 people and ended the season with nearly 100!! It was a great success and I hope you can join us this year. Week one picks will be available soon (on Labor day).

This competition is sponsored by the Department of Mathematics and the Sport Management Program at Trinity University. The purpose of the challenge is to support the educational mission of the Oracle rankings project to teach about predictive analytics in sports. Participation is free!

Check you Last year’s challenge.

Subscribe to the Oracle Rank Newsletter

Our first issue will be coming out in September

Want to write or help the Oracle rankings? Contact me.

Posted in NFL, NFL Challenge | Comments Off on 2nd Annual NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge – 2017

NBA Finals

Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

GSW wins: 72.99% chance

GSW in 4: 12.79%
GSW in 5: 23.00%
GSW in 6: 18.85%
GSW in 7: 18.36%
CLE in 7: 9.43%
CLE in 6: 10.01%
CLE in 5: 5.14%
CLE in 4: 2.42%

CLE wins: 27.01% chance

Conference Finals

Win % Massey Colley BV Kenner PR Oracle
BOS vs CLE CLE (51.5%) CLE (63.0%) CLE (52.5%) CLE (51.8%) CLE (50.7%) CLE (53.7%) CLE (57.5%)
GSW vs SAS GSW (60.3%) GSW (53.4%) GSW (58.0%) GSW (61.9%) GSW (52.1%) SAS (50.4%) GSW (65.1%)
BOS vs WAS BOS (57.8%) BOS (61.3%) BOS (56.5%) BOS (58.5%) BOS (50.6%) BOS (58.8%) BOS (61.9%)
CLE vs TOR CLE (57.2%) CLE (60.2%) CLE (56.7%) CLE (61.1%) CLE (50.3%) CLE (58.9%) CLE (62.3%)
GSW vs UTA GSW (69.6%) GSW (61.9%) GSW (66.6%) GSW (76.8%) GSW (55.5%) GSW (66.1%) GSW (79.7%)
SAS vs HOU SAS (55.3%) SAS (53.4%) SAS (54.5%) SAS (60.4%) SAS (50.7%) SAS (59.6%) SAS (58.3%)
BOS vs CHI BOS (64.9%) BOS (65.2%) BOS (63.3%) BOS (69.5%) BOS (51.1%) BOS (60.6%) BOS (63.0%)
CLE vs IND CLE (72.7%) CLE (87.0%) CLE (70.4%) CLE (76.5%) CLE (53.3%) CLE (77.8%) CLE (81.4%)
TOR vs MIL TOR (61.0%) TOR (73.4%) TOR (59.1%) TOR (63.2%) TOR (52.2%) TOR (61.1%) TOR (64.9%)
WAS vs ATL WAS (58.9%) WAS (66.7%) WAS (58.2%) WAS (63.8%) WAS (50.9%) WAS (55.0%) WAS (58.3%)
GSW vs POR GSW (80.2%) GSW (87.5%) GSW (76.8%) GSW (87.7%) GSW (57.4%) GSW (82.3%) GSW (92.2%)
SAS vs MEM SAS (68.8%) SAS (75.8%) SAS (66.3%) SAS (75.0%) SAS (54.2%) SAS (66.4%) SAS (78.7%)
HOU vs OKC HOU (62.5%) HOU (82.2%) HOU (60.7%) HOU (66.3%) HOU (52.9%) HOU (64.7%) HOU (75.0%)
LAC vs UTA LAC (52.9%) UTA (50.6%) LAC (50.8%) UTA (50.2%) LAC (50.6%) UTA (51.8%) LAC (54.3%)
(13-1) (14-0) (13-1) (14-0) (13-1) (13-1) (13-1)
Posted in NBA | Comments Off on NBA Finals

NHL – Stanley Cup Predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators

PIT wins: 63.89% chance

PIT in 4: 9.12%
PIT in 5: 18.98%
PIT in 6: 16.75%
PIT in 7: 19.04%
NSH in 7: 11.48%
NSH in 6: 13.50%
NSH in 5: 7.36%
NSH in 4: 3.77%

NSH wins: 36.11% chance

The table below shows how the NHL Oracle and other computer methods did when predicting the NHL Playoffs.

 

Win % Massey Colley BV Kenner PR Oracle
PIT vs OTT PIT (57.2%) PIT (75.1%) PIT (57.2%) PIT (60.5%) PIT (53.9%) PIT (56.8%) PIT (66.3%)
ANA vs NSH ANA (58.5%) ANA (57.0%) ANA (57.5%) ANA (58.9%) ANA (53.0%) ANA (53.7%) ANA (52.8%)
WSH vs PIT WSH (59.1%) WSH (61.2%) WSH (57.9%) WSH (59.8%) WSH (55.8%) WSH (56.6%) WSH (58.6%)
NYR vs OTT NYR (53.3%) NYR (66.1%) NYR (52.8%) NYR (54.5%) NYR (51.9%) NYR (54.5%) NYR (53.3%)
STL vs NSH STL (58.6%) STL (58.5%) STL (57.0%) STL (56.5%) STL (51.6%) STL (53.4%) STL (57.1%)
ANA vs EDM EDM (50.3%) EDM (62.8%) EDM (50.3%) ANA (52.3%) ANA (50.7%) ANA (52.9%) ANA (50.5%)
WSH vs TOR WSH (67.7%) WSH (73.5%) WSH (66.6%) WSH (71.3%) WSH (60.1%) WSH (67.4%) WSH (68.3%)
MTL vs NYR NYR (51.5%) NYR (55.6%) NYR (52.8%) NYR (55.4%) NYR (54.3%) NYR (58.1%) NYR (52.3%)
OTT vs BOS OTT (50.4%) BOS (68.8%) BOS (51.2%) OTT (50.1%) BOS (50.8%) OTT (52.9%) BOS (54.0%)
PIT vs CBJ PIT (51.7%) CBJ (53.8%) PIT (50.7%) PIT (52.4%) CBJ (51.0%) CBJ (50.7%) PIT (55.3%)
ANA vs CGY ANA (52.0%) ANA (62.6%) ANA (52.1%) ANA (54.3%) ANA (53.3%) ANA (52.0%) ANA (52.6%)
EDM vs SJS EDM (53.1%) EDM (58.0%) EDM (51.6%) EDM (50.6%) SJS (50.9%) SJS (54.4%) EDM (53.1%)
MIN vs STL MIN (54.3%) MIN (66.4%) MIN (53.0%) MIN (53.9%) MIN (51.7%) MIN (50.6%) MIN (55.3%)
(7-7) (5-9) (6-8) (8-6) (5-9) (6-8) (7-7)
Posted in NHL | Comments Off on NHL – Stanley Cup Predictions

NBA – Conference Finals

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

BOS wins: 38.16% chance

BOS in 4: 3.39%
BOS in 5: 9.41%
BOS in 6: 10.07%
BOS in 7: 15.29%
CLE in 7: 14.79%
CLE in 6: 21.74%
CLE in 5: 15.49%
CLE in 4: 9.83%

CLE wins: 61.84% chance

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs

GSW wins: 73.21% chance

GSW in 4: 13.01%
GSW in 5: 22.99%
GSW in 6: 19.06%
GSW in 7: 18.15%
SAS in 7: 9.45%
SAS in 6: 9.81%
SAS in 5: 5.13%
SAS in 4: 2.39%

SAS wins: 26.79% chance

Posted in NBA | Comments Off on NBA – Conference Finals

NHL – Conference Finals

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators

PIT wins: 66.29% chance

PIT in 4: 10.73%
PIT in 5: 19.15%
PIT in 6: 18.92%
PIT in 7: 17.49%
OTT in 7: 11.85%
OTT in 6: 11.34%
OTT in 5: 7.21%
OTT in 4: 3.31%

OTT wins: 33.71% chance

Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators

ANA wins: 52.83% chance

ANA in 4: 5.72%
ANA in 5: 14.80%
ANA in 6: 13.24%
ANA in 7: 19.07%
NSH in 7: 12.92%
NSH in 6: 18.26%
NSH in 5: 10.14%
NSH in 4: 5.85%

NSH wins: 47.17% chance

Posted in NHL | Comments Off on NHL – Conference Finals

NBA – Second Round Predictions

EASTERN CONFERENCE – SECOND ROUND

(1) Boston Celtics vs (4) Washington Wizards

Series tied at 3-3 

BOS wins: 59.60% chance

BOS in 7: 59.60%
WAS in 7: 40.40%

WAS wins: 40.40% chance

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (3) Toronto Raptors

[52.01%] CLE Wins the series: CLE 4-0 TOR  

CLE wins: 52.01% chance

CLE in 4: 5.36%
CLE in 5: 14.60%
CLE in 6: 12.67%
CLE in 7: 19.38%
TOR in 7: 12.79%
TOR in 6: 19.00%
TOR in 5: 10.20%
TOR in 4: 5.99%

TOR wins: 47.99% chance

WESTERN CONFERENCE – SECOND ROUND

< trong>(1) Golden State Warriors vs (4) Utah Jazz

[76.03%] GSW Wins the series: GSW 4-0 UTA  

GSW wins: 76.03% chance

GSW in 4: 14.47%
GSW in 5: 24.31%
GSW in 6: 19.58%
GSW in 7: 17.68%
UTA in 7: 8.70%
UTA in 6: 8.74%
UTA in 5: 4.49%
UTA in 4: 2.03%

UTA wins: 23.97% chance

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (3) Houston Rockets

[55.76%] SAS Wins the series: SAS 4-2 HOU  

SAS wins: 55.76% chance

SAS in 4: 7.50%
SAS in 5: 14.85%
SAS in 6: 16.55%
SAS in 7: 16.86%
HOU in 7: 14.21%
HOU in 6: 14.55%
HOU in 5: 10.35%
HOU in 4: 5.13%

HOU wins: 44.24% chance

Posted in NBA | Comments Off on NBA – Second Round Predictions

NHL – Second Round Predictions

Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins

&#9654 WSH wins: 56.48% chance

WSH in 4: 6.81%
WSH in 5: 16.07%
WSH in 6: 14.61%
WSH in 7: 18.99%
PIT in 7: 12.66%
PIT in 6: 16.47%
PIT in 5: 9.27%
PIT in 4: 5.11%

&#9654 PIT wins: 43.52% chance

New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators

&#9654 NYR wins: 58.10% chance

NYR in 4: 8.64%
NYR in 5: 14.47%
NYR in 6: 19.93%
NYR in 7: 15.07%
OTT in 7: 15.65%
OTT in 6: 11.63%
OTT in 5: 10.44%
OTT in 4: 4.17%

&#9654 OTT wins: 41.90% chance

St. Louis Blues vs Nashville Predators

&#9654 STL wins: 53.55% chance

STL in 4: 6.96%
STL in 5: 13.99%
STL in 6: 16.05%
STL in 7: 16.54%
NSH in 7: 14.65%
NSH in 6: 15.14%
NSH in 5: 11.09%
NSH in 4: 5.57%

&#9654 NSH wins: 46.45% chance

Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers

&#9654 ANA wins: 49.56% chance

ANA in 4: 5.39%
ANA in 5: 13.31%
ANA in 6: 13.12%
ANA in 7: 17.74%
EDM in 7: 13.86%
EDM in 6: 18.43%
EDM in 5: 11.53%
EDM in 4: 6.62%

&#9654 EDM wins: 50.44% chance

Posted in NHL | Comments Off on NHL – Second Round Predictions

NBA – First Round Predictions

EASTERN CONFERENCE – FIRST ROUND

(1) Boston Celtics vs (8) Chicago Bulls

[55.96%] BOS Wins the series: BOS 4-2 CHI  

&#9654 BOS wins: 55.96% chance

BOS in 4: 7.09%
BOS in 5: 15.49%
BOS in 6: 15.34%
BOS in 7: 18.03%
CHI in 7: 13.32%
CHI in 6: 15.73%
CHI in 5: 9.80%
CHI in 4: 5.20%

&#9654 CHI wins: 44.04% chance

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (7) Indiana Pacers

[70.37%] CLE Wins the series: CLE 4-0 IND  

&#9654 CLE wins: 70.37% chance

CLE in 4: 8.41%
CLE in 5: 23.59%
CLE in 6: 14.76%
CLE in 7: 23.61%
IND in 7: 8.37%
IND in 6: 14.15%
IND in 5: 4.59%
IND in 4: 2.53%

&#9654 IND wins: 29.63% chance

(3) Toronto Raptors vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks

[64.63%] TOR Wins the series: TOR 4-2 MIL  

&#9654 TOR wins: 64.63% chance

TOR in 4: 9.85%
TOR in 5: 18.81%
TOR in 6: 17.87%
TOR in 7: 18.10%
MIL in 7: 11.86%
MIL in 6: 12.42%
MIL in 5: 7.47%
MIL in 4: 3.62%

&#9654 MIL wins: 35.37% chance

(4) Washington Wizards vs (5) Atlanta Hawks

[52.21%] WAS Wins the series: WAS 4-2 ATL  

&#9654 WAS wins: 52.21% chance

WAS in 4: 6.24%
WAS in 5: 14.01%
WAS in 6: 14.50%
WAS in 7: 17.45%
ATL in 7: 14.00%
ATL in 6: 16.79%
ATL in 5: 11.01%
ATL in 4: 5.99%

&#9654 ATL wins: 47.79% chance

WESTERN CONFERENCE – FIRST ROUND

(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Portland Trail Blazers

[88.29%] GSW Wins the series: GSW 4-0 POR  

&#9654 GSW wins: 88.29% chance

GSW in 4: 22.95%
GSW in 5: 31.58%
GSW in 6: 19.22%
GSW in 7: 14.54%
POR in 7: 4.54%
POR in 6: 4.56%
POR in 5: 1.82%
POR in 4: 0.78%

&#9654 POR wins: 11.71% chance

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Memphis Grizzlies

[73.30%] SAS Wins the series: SAS 4-2 MEM  

&#9654 SAS wins: 73.30% chance

SAS in 4: 13.76%
SAS in 5: 22.19%
SAS in 6: 20.42%
SAS in 7: 16.94%
MEM in 7: 10.06%
MEM in 6: 8.91%
MEM in 5: 5.41%
MEM in 4: 2.32%

&#9654 MEM wins: 26.70% chance

(3) Houston Rockets vs (6) Oklahoma City Thunder

[69.74%] HOU Wins the series: HOU 4-1 OKC  

&#9654 HOU wins: 69.74% chance

HOU in 4: 10.88%
HOU in 5: 21.91%
HOU in 6: 17.49%
HOU in 7: 19.46%
OKC in 7: 9.89%
OKC in 6: 11.80%
OKC in 5: 5.71%
OKC in 4: 2.87%

&#9654 OKC wins: 30.26% chance

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Utah Jazz

[43.39%] UTA Wins the series: UTA 4-3 LAC  

&#9654 LAC wins: 56.61% chance

LAC in 4: 7.18%
LAC in 5: 15.82%
LAC in 6: 15.33%
LAC in 7: 18.27%
UTA in 7: 13.09%
UTA in 6: 15.69%
UTA in 5: 9.53%
UTA in 4: 5.08%

&#9654 UTA wins: 43.39% chance

 

 

 

Win %

7-1

Massey

8-0

Colley

7-1

BV

7-1

Kenner

7-1

PR

6-2

Oracle

7-1

BOS vs CHI BOS (66.9%) BOS (68.7%) BOS (64.7%) BOS (65.1%) BOS (52.6%) BOS (55.8%) BOS (56.0%)
CLE vs IND CLE (67.4%) CLE (82.8%) CLE (65.6%) CLE (66.0%) CLE (53.3%) CLE (66.4%) CLE (70.4%)
TOR vs MIL TOR (61.9%) TOR (77.6%) TOR (59.8%) TOR (62.0%) TOR (53.4%) TOR (58.3%) TOR (64.6%)
WAS vs ATL WAS (58.1%) WAS (71.3%) WAS (57.2%) WAS (57.3%) WAS (51.5%) ATL (52.6%) WAS (52.2%)
GSW vs POR GSW (77.3%) GSW (86.3%) GSW (74.3%) GSW (81.6%) GSW (58.0%) GSW (72.8%) GSW (88.3%)
SAS vs MEM SAS (69.6%) SAS (74.0%) SAS (66.6%) SAS (71.4%) SAS (54.4%) SAS (61.0%) SAS (73.3%)
HOU vs OKC HOU (61.4%) HOU (80.9%) HOU (59.2%) HOU (60.7%) HOU (52.9%) HOU (55.4%) HOU (69.7%)
LAC vs UTA LAC (52.2%) UTA (51.2%) LAC (51.3%) LAC (53.2%) LAC (50.1%) LAC (53.0%) LAC (56.6%)
Posted in NBA | Comments Off on NBA – First Round Predictions