2015 NCAAF Oracle – Valero Alamo Bowl

The closest Bowl game of the year and of the last 17 years!

The Valero Alamo bowl not only is the  closest game in the last 17 years of BCS-CPF era, but the hardest bowl game to predict this season. 

Why should you listen to the NCAAF Oracle: As a friend of the Oracle, you know that we will provide you with the historical data so you can verify the Oracle accuracy of 70.5% by picking the last 12 out of the last 17 Bowl games
Computer predictions and accuracy of Alamo Bowl games during 1998-2014

Year Game results WP Ma Col BV Ke PR Or
1998 Kansas State 34 vs Purdue 37
1999 Texas A&M 0 vs Penn State 24
2000 Northwestern 17 vs Nebraska 66
2001 Texas Tech 16 vs Iowa 19
2002 Colorado 28 vs Wisconsin 31
2003 Michigan State 3 vs Nebraska 17
2004 Oklahoma State 7 vs Ohio State 33
2005 Michigan 28 vs Nebraska 32
2006 Iowa 24 vs Texas 26
2007 Texas A&M 17 vs Penn State 24
2008 Northwestern 23 vs Missouri 30
2009 Michigan State 31 vs Texas Tech 41
2010 Arizona 10 vs Oklahoma State 36
2011 Washington 56 vs Baylor 67
2012 Oregon State 27 vs Texas 31
2013 Texas 7 vs Oregon 30
2014 Kansas State 35 vs UCLA 40
Accuracy (out of 17) 9 11 11 11 6 5 12

As a reminder, WP is the Win Percentage,  Ma is Massey Ratings (original published version and used in the former BCS), Col is Colley Ratings (open source used in BCS), BV is the Biased Voter method, Ke is the Keener method, and PR is the PageRank method, the original engine behind Google

 

How about the latest Valero Alamo BowlThe next game will feature Texas Christian University vs Oregon in San Antonio, TX and here is how each of the computer rankings are predicting this game:

Ranking Predicted Winner Chances
WP TCU 62.9%
Ma TCU 58.2%
Col TCU 53.3%
BV TCU 62.8%
Ke Oregon 73.4%
PR Oregon 86.0%
Or Oregon 51.1%

Why the closest game in the last 17 years: The NCAAF Oracle has provided good predictions int he BCS-CFP era and its confidence predictions for the winner are usually above 60%. Indeed, here are the last 17 years, as predicted by the Oracle

Year Predicted Winner Chances
1998 Purdue 84.7%
1999 Penn State 66.7%
2000 Nebraska 60.2%
2001 Iowa 64.6%
2002 Wisconsin 73.4%
2003 Nebraska 67.3%
2004 Ohio State 57.0%
2005 Nebraska 61.0%
2006 Texas 92.2%
2007 Penn State 60.5%
2008 Missouri 53.5%
2009 Texas Tech 78.4%
2010 Oklahoma State 87.7%
2011 Baylor 84.6%
2012 Texas 65.5%
2013 Oregon 76.0%
2014 UCLA 63.7%

How does the Valero Alamo Bowl measure up to other bowls:  The complete analysis and predictions are found at the site. Here we highlight the top hardest games to pick and the ones the NCAAF Oracle is the most confident:

Date Bowl  Pred. Winner  Pred. Loser
Sat Jan 02 2016  Valero Alamo Bowl Oregon (51.1%) Texas Christian (48.9%)
Tue Dec 22 2015 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Utah State (51.7%) Akron (48.3%)
Thu Dec 31 2015 Cotton Bowl (Playoff) Alabama (51.8%) Michigan State (48.2%)
Thu Dec 24 2015 Hawaii Bowl San Diego State (85.5%) Cincinnati (14.5%)
Sat Dec 26 2015 Foster Farms Bowl UCLA (86.6%) Nebraska (13.4%)
Wed Dec 30 2015 Birmingham Bowl Memphis (87.3%) Auburn (12.7%)

 

 

Bowls

NCAAF Oracle: Bowl Predictions 2015

DateBowlWinnerPredLoserPred
Mon Jan 11 2016College Football ChampionshipClemson52.5%Alabama47.5%
Sat Jan 02 2016TicketCity Cactus BowlWest Virginia59.1%Arizona State40.9%
Sat Jan 02 2016Alamo BowlOregon51.1%Texas Christian48.9%
Sat Jan 02 2016Liberty BowlArkansas84.8%Kansas State15.2%
Sat Jan 02 2016TaxSlayer BowlGeorgia74.1%Penn State25.9%
Fri Jan 01 2016Sugar BowlOklahoma State52.1%Mississippi47.9%
Fri Jan 01 2016Rose BowlStanford52.0%Iowa48.0%
Fri Jan 01 2016Citrus BowlFlorida62.8%Michigan37.2%
Fri Jan 01 2016Fiesta BowlOhio State60.9%Notre Dame39.1%
Fri Jan 01 2016Outback BowlNorthwestern80.6%Tennessee19.4%
Thu Dec 31 2015Cotton BowlAlabama51.8%Michigan State48.2%
Thu Dec 31 2015Orange BowlClemson68.0%Oklahoma32.0%
Thu Dec 31 2015Peach BowlHouston68.9%Florida State31.1%
Wed Dec 30 2015Holiday BowlSouthern California64.6%Wisconsin35.4%
Wed Dec 30 2015Music City BowlTexas A&M75.0%Louisville25.0%
Wed Dec 30 2015Belk BowlMississippi State81.4%North Carolina State18.6%
Wed Dec 30 2015Birmingham BowlMemphis87.3%Auburn12.7%
Tue Dec 29 2015Texas BowlLouisiana State80.3%Texas Tech19.7%
Tue Dec 29 2015Arizona BowlColorado State66.5%Nevada33.5%
Tue Dec 29 2015Russell Athletic BowlNorth Carolina76.2%Baylor23.8%
Tue Dec 29 2015Armed Forces BowlCalifornia54.4%Air Force45.6%
Mon Dec 28 2015Quick Lane BowlCentral Michigan77.8%Minnesota22.2%
Mon Dec 28 2015Military BowlNavy67.1%Pittsburgh32.9%
Sat Dec 26 2015Foster Farms BowlUCLA86.6%Nebraska13.4%
Sat Dec 26 2015Independence BowlVirginia Tech63.8%Tulsa36.2%
Sat Dec 26 2015Pinstripe BowlDuke55.8%Indiana44.2%
Sat Dec 26 2015Heart of Dallas BowlSouthern Mississippi74.5%Washington25.5%
Sat Dec 26 2015Sun BowlWashington State54.1%Miami FL45.9%
Sat Dec 26 2015St. Petersburg BowlMarshall83.2%Connecticut16.8%
Thu Dec 24 2015Hawaii BowlSan Diego State85.5%Cincinnati14.5%
Thu Dec 24 2015Popeyes Bahamas BowlWestern Michigan62.1%Middle Tennessee State37.9%
Wed Dec 23 2015GoDaddy BowlBowling Green State79.1%Georgia Southern20.9%
Wed Dec 23 2015Poinsettia BowlNorthern Illinois52.9%Boise State47.1%
Tue Dec 22 2015Boca Raton BowlTemple57.0%Toledo43.0%
Tue Dec 22 2015Famous Idaho Potato BowlUtah State51.7%Akron48.3%
Mon Dec 21 2015Miami Beach BowlWestern Kentucky84.6%South Florida15.4%
Sat Dec 19 2015New Orleans BowlArkansas State68.6%Louisiana Tech31.4%
Sat Dec 19 2015AutoNation Cure BowlGeorgia State73.4%San Jose State26.6%
Sat Dec 19 2015Camellia BowlAppalachian State70.6%Ohio29.4%
Sat Dec 19 2015Las Vegas BowlUtah59.2%Brigham Young40.8%
Sat Dec 19 2015New Mexico BowlNew Mexico67.0%Arizona33.0%

The NCAAF Oracle was 21-20 (51.22%) for the Bowl season and here is how we did:

Jan-11 [52.51%]: Clemson 40 @ Alabama 45
Jan-02 [59.09%]: West Virginia 43 @ Arizona State 42
Jan-02 [51.12%]: Oregon 41 @ Texas Christian 47
Jan-02 [84.84%]: Arkansas 45 @ Kansas State 23
Jan-02 [74.13%]: Georgia 24 @ Penn State 17
Jan-01 [52.12%]: Oklahoma State 20 @ Mississippi 48
Jan-01 [52.04%]: Stanford 45 @ Iowa 16
Jan-01 [62.79%]: Florida 7 @ Michigan 41
Jan-01 [60.89%]: Ohio State 44 @ Notre Dame 28
Jan-01 [80.65%]: Northwestern 6 @ Tennessee 45
Dec-31 [51.79%]: Alabama 38 @ Michigan State 0
Dec-31 [68.01%]: Clemson 37 @ Oklahoma 17
Dec-31 [68.89%]: Houston 38 @ Florida State 24
Dec-30 [64.59%]: Southern California 21 @ Wisconsin 23
Dec-30 [74.96%]: Texas A&M 21 @ Louisville 27
Dec-30 [81.39%]: Mississippi State 51 @ North Carolina State 28
Dec-30 [87.27%]: Memphis 10 @ Auburn 31
Dec-29 [80.26%]: Louisiana State 56 @ Texas Tech 27
Dec-29 [66.54%]: Colorado State 23 @ Nevada 28
Dec-29 [76.15%]: North Carolina 38 @ Baylor 49
Dec-29 [54.38%]: California 55 @ Air Force 36
Dec-28 [77.82%]: Central Michigan 14 @ Minnesota 21
Dec-28 [67.09%]: Navy 44 @ Pittsburgh 28
Dec-26 [86.61%]: UCLA 29 @ Nebraska 37
Dec-26 [63.83%]: Virginia Tech 55 @ Tulsa 52
Dec-26 [55.84%]: Duke 44 @ Indiana 41
Dec-26 [74.45%]: Southern Mississippi 31 @ Washington 44
Dec-26 [54.05%]: Washington State 20 @ Miami FL 14
Dec-26 [83.16%]: Marshall 16 @ Connecticut 10
Dec-24 [85.54%]: San Diego State 42 @ Cincinnati 7
Dec-24 [62.06%]: Western Michigan 45 @ Middle Tennessee State 31
Dec-23 [79.13%]: Bowling Green State 27 @ Georgia Southern 58
Dec-23 [52.95%]: Northern Illinois 7 @ Boise State 55
Dec-22 [57.00%]: Temple 17 @ Toledo 32
Dec-22 [51.67%]: Utah State 21 @ Akron 23
Dec-21 [84.56%]: Western Kentucky 45 @ South Florida 35
Dec-19 [68.62%]: Arkansas State 28 @ Louisiana Tech 47
Dec-19 [73.44%]: Georgia State 16 @ San Jose State 27
Dec-19 [70.57%]: Appalachian State 31 @ Ohio 29
Dec-19 [59.17%]: Utah 35 @ Brigham Young 28
Dec-19 [67.05%]: New Mexico 37 @ Arizona 45

This entry was posted in NCAAF. Bookmark the permalink.