NCAAF Oracle Rankings - Week 12
| Rank | Team | Record | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | (11-0) | -- |
| 2 | Alabama | (10-1) | -- |
| 3 | Michigan State | (10-1) | ▲ 4 |
| 4 | Iowa | (11-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | (10-1) | ▲ 5 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | (10-1) | -- |
| 7 | Florida | (10-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 8 | Ohio State | (10-1) | ▼ 4 |
| 9 | North Carolina | (10-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | (10-1) | ▼ 5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | (9-2) | ▲ 3 |
| 12 | Stanford | (9-2) | ▲ 1 |
| 13 | Houston | (10-1) | ▼ 5 |
| 14 | Michigan | (9-2) | ▲ 5 |
| 15 | Navy | (9-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 16 | Florida State | (9-2) | ▲ 2 |
| 17 | Utah | (8-3) | ▼ 5 |
| 18 | Mississippi | (8-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 19 | Oregon | (8-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 20 | Toledo | (9-1) | ▲ 3 |
| 21 | Baylor | (9-1) | ▲ 10 |
| 22 | Mississippi State | (8-3) | ▲ 8 |
| 23 | Texas Christian | (9-2) | ▼ 8 |
| 24 | UCLA | (8-3) | ▲ 9 |
| 25 | Temple | (9-2) | ▲ 9 |
| 26 | Western Kentucky | (9-2) | ▲ 1 |
| 27 | Washington State | (8-3) | ▲ 2 |
| 28 | Texas A&M | (8-3) | -- |
| 29 | Memphis | (8-3) | ▼ 13 |
| 30 | Brigham Young | (8-3) | ▲ 2 |
| 31 | Pittsburgh | (8-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 32 | Georgia | (8-3) | ▲ 8 |
| 33 | Louisiana State | (7-3) | ▼ 11 |
| 34 | Southern California | (7-4) | ▼ 14 |
| 35 | Marshall | (9-2) | ▼ 14 |
| 36 | Bowling Green State | (8-3) | ▼ 12 |
| 37 | Northern Illinois | (8-3) | ▲ 5 |
| 38 | San Diego State | (8-3) | ▲ 5 |
| 39 | Air Force | (8-3) | ▲ 8 |
| 40 | Louisiana Tech | (8-3) | ▲ 5 |
| 41 | Wisconsin | (8-3) | ▼ 5 |
| 42 | Appalachian State | (8-2) | ▼ 7 |
| 43 | South Florida | (7-4) | ▲ 10 |
| 44 | Tennessee | (7-4) | ▲ 6 |
| 45 | Arkansas | (6-5) | ▼ 6 |
| 46 | Penn State | (7-4) | ▼ 9 |
| 47 | Southern Mississippi | (8-3) | ▲ 5 |
| 48 | Miami FL | (7-4) | ▲ 3 |
| 49 | Arkansas State | (7-3) | ▼ 8 |
| 50 | Ohio | (7-4) | ▲ 5 |
| 51 | Arizona State | (6-5) | ▲ 15 |
| 52 | Georgia Southern | (7-3) | ▼ 4 |
| 53 | California | (6-5) | ▼ 9 |
| 54 | North Carolina State | (7-4) | ▲ 4 |
| 55 | Boise State | (7-4) | ▼ 9 |
| 56 | Auburn | (6-5) | ▲ 8 |
| 57 | Arizona | (6-6) | ▼ 8 |
| 58 | Central Michigan | (6-5) | ▲ 10 |
| 59 | West Virginia | (6-4) | ▲ 8 |
| 60 | Utah State | (6-5) | ▲ 13 |
| 61 | Nebraska | (5-6) | ▼ 7 |
| 62 | Cincinnati | (6-5) | ▼ 1 |
| 63 | Louisville | (6-5) | ▼ 6 |
| 64 | Colorado State | (6-5) | ▲ 12 |
| 65 | New Mexico | (6-5) | ▼ 5 |
| 66 | Connecticut | (6-5) | ▲ 12 |
| 67 | Nevada | (6-5) | ▼ 11 |
| 68 | Texas Tech | (6-5) | ▼ 9 |
| 69 | Western Michigan | (6-5) | ▼ 6 |
| 70 | Missouri | (5-6) | ▼ 8 |
| 71 | Middle Tennessee State | (6-5) | -- |
| 72 | Duke | (6-5) | ▼ 7 |
| 73 | Washington | (5-6) | ▲ 2 |
| 74 | Akron | (6-5) | ▲ 6 |
| 75 | Minnesota | (5-6) | ▲ 10 |
| 76 | Indiana | (5-6) | ▲ 3 |
| 77 | South Alabama | (5-5) | ▼ 8 |
| 78 | Illinois | (5-6) | ▼ 6 |
| 79 | Virginia Tech | (5-6) | ▼ 9 |
| 80 | Kentucky | (5-6) | ▲ 6 |
| 81 | Buffalo | (5-6) | ▼ 7 |
| 82 | San Jose State | (5-6) | ▲ 5 |
| 83 | East Carolina | (5-6) | ▲ 5 |
| 84 | Florida International | (5-7) | ▼ 7 |
| 85 | Texas | (4-6) | ▼ 3 |
| 86 | Old Dominion | (5-6) | ▼ 3 |
| 87 | Tulsa | (5-6) | ▼ 6 |
| 88 | Vanderbilt | (4-7) | ▼ 4 |
| 89 | Kansas State | (4-6) | ▲ 6 |
| 90 | Virginia | (4-7) | ▲ 9 |
| 91 | Georgia State | (4-6) | ▲ 12 |
| 92 | Colorado | (4-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 93 | Texas-El Paso | (4-7) | ▼ 3 |
| 94 | Louisiana-Lafayette | (4-6) | ▼ 3 |
| 95 | Rutgers | (4-7) | ▲ 11 |
| 96 | Georgia Tech | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 97 | South Carolina | (3-8) | ▼ 5 |
| 98 | Rice | (4-7) | ▼ 4 |
| 99 | Syracuse | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 100 | Boston College | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 101 | New Mexico State | (3-7) | ▲ 17 |
| 102 | Texas State | (3-7) | ▲ 10 |
| 103 | Nevada-Las Vegas | (3-8) | ▼ 5 |
| 104 | Texas-San Antonio | (3-8) | ▲ 12 |
| 105 | Iowa State | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 106 | Wake Forest | (3-8) | ▼ 6 |
| 107 | Fresno State | (3-8) | ▼ 6 |
| 108 | Kent State | (3-8) | ▼ 4 |
| 109 | Troy | (3-7) | ▼ 4 |
| 110 | Ball State | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 111 | Idaho | (3-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 112 | Miami OH | (3-9) | ▲ 10 |
| 113 | Tulane | (3-8) | ▼ 4 |
| 114 | Maryland | (2-9) | ▼ 4 |
| 115 | Purdue | (2-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 116 | Oregon State | (2-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 117 | Charlotte | (2-9) | ▲ 2 |
| 118 | Florida Atlantic | (2-9) | ▼ 4 |
| 119 | Hawaii | (2-10) | ▼ 3 |
| 120 | Massachusetts | (2-9) | ▼ 2 |
| 121 | Army | (2-9) | ▼ 1 |
| 122 | Southern Methodist | (2-9) | ▲ 7 |
| 123 | Wyoming | (1-10) | ▼ 1 |
| 124 | North Texas | (1-10) | ▼ 2 |
| 125 | Louisiana-Monroe | (1-10) | ▼ 1 |
| 126 | Eastern Michigan | (1-10) | ▼ 3 |
| 127 | Central Florida | (0-11) | ▼ 1 |
| 128 | Kansas | (0-11) | ▼ 1 |
The weekly CFP rankings are out and the NCAAF Oracle has the same top six teams. The Oracle was also quite accurate in its rankings projections from last week that we are continuing with this analysis.
The Oracle wanted to find out if the rankings were really influenced by a November to remember or how would the ranks change if the committee had a short memory or perhaps they were nostalgic about the season. We set out the following experiment:
- November to Remember: Games played in the month of November are given twice the weight by the Oracle.
- Short Memory: The Oracle weights games according to how well it can remember, thus losing early will not hurt your rankings as much as if you lost recently. That is, later games are more important.
- Nostalgic: “Those were the days, my friends, We thought they’d never end…” The Oracle misses the warmth of late summer, so it tried to give more importance to the early games in the season
It turns out that how you weight the season does matter.
NCAAF Oracle: Week 12- Different Versions of Rankings
| Rank | NCAAF Oracle | Nov. to Remember | Short Memory | Nostalgic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | Alabama | Clemson | Clemson |
| 2 | Alabama | Clemson | Alabama | Michigan State |
| 3 | Michigan State | Oklahoma | Michigan State | Alabama |
| 4 | Iowa | Iowa | Oklahoma | Iowa |
| 5 | Oklahoma | Notre Dame | Iowa | Ohio State |
| 6 | Notre Dame | Michigan State | Notre Dame | Florida |
| 7 | Florida | Florida | North Carolina | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Ohio State | North Carolina | Florida | Oklahoma |
| 9 | North Carolina | Oregon | Stanford | Oklahoma State |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | Northwestern | Navy | Northwestern |
| 11 | Northwestern | Navy | Ohio State | Utah |
| 12 | Stanford | Michigan | Oklahoma State | Stanford |
| 13 | Houston | Ohio State | Michigan | North Carolina |
| 14 | Michigan | Oklahoma State | Oregon | Houston |
| 15 | Navy | Washington State | Northwestern | Michigan |
| 16 | Florida State | Houston | Houston | Florida State |
| 17 | Utah | Stanford | Toledo | Mississippi |
| 18 | Mississippi | Toledo | Washington State | Texas Christian |
| 19 | Oregon | Baylor | Florida State | Navy |
| 20 | Toledo | Georgia | Baylor | Memphis |
| 21 | Baylor | Mississippi State | Mississippi | Temple |
| 22 | Mississippi State | Northern Illinois | Mississippi State | UCLA |
| 23 | Texas Christian | Florida State | Western Kentucky | Texas A&M |
| 24 | UCLA | South Florida | Utah | Toledo |
| 25 | Temple | UCLA | UCLA | Baylor |
The NCAAF Oracle has looked at over 10,000 simulations of the season and figured out the final rankings before any conference games are played. Last year, this produces the correct picks for the CFP teams, so we taking the same approach for this season.
CFP Chances: NCAAF Oracle - Week 12
| Rank | Team | Record | CFP Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | (11-0) | 89.54% |
| 2 | Alabama | (10-1) | 86.09% |
| 3 | Michigan State | (10-1) | 85.04% |
| 4 | Iowa | (11-0) | 64.49% |
| 5 | Oklahoma | (10-1) | 47.42% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | (10-1) | 17.06% |
| 7 | Florida | (10-1) | 8.35% |
| 8 | Ohio State | (10-1) | 1.45% |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | (10-1) | 0.49% |
| 10 | Navy | (9-1) | 0.07% |
Chances that each team changes its rankings after the weekend.
2015 NCAAF Oracle – Week 12