2015 NCAAF Oracle – Week 12

NCAAF Oracle Rankings - Week 12

RankTeamRecordTrend
1Clemson(11-0)--
2Alabama(10-1)--
3Michigan State(10-1) 4
4Iowa(11-0) 1
5Oklahoma(10-1) 5
6Notre Dame(10-1)--
7Florida(10-1) 2
8Ohio State(10-1) 4
9North Carolina(10-1) 2
10Oklahoma State(10-1) 5
11Northwestern(9-2) 3
12Stanford(9-2) 1
13Houston(10-1) 5
14Michigan(9-2) 5
15Navy(9-1) 2
16Florida State(9-2) 2
17Utah(8-3) 5
18Mississippi(8-3) 7
19Oregon(8-3) 7
20Toledo(9-1) 3
21Baylor(9-1) 10
22Mississippi State(8-3) 8
23Texas Christian(9-2) 8
24UCLA(8-3) 9
25Temple(9-2) 9
26Western Kentucky(9-2) 1
27Washington State(8-3) 2
28Texas A&M(8-3)--
29Memphis(8-3) 13
30Brigham Young(8-3) 2
31Pittsburgh(8-3) 7
32Georgia(8-3) 8
33Louisiana State(7-3) 11
34Southern California(7-4) 14
35Marshall(9-2) 14
36Bowling Green State(8-3) 12
37Northern Illinois(8-3) 5
38San Diego State(8-3) 5
39Air Force(8-3) 8
40Louisiana Tech(8-3) 5
41Wisconsin(8-3) 5
42Appalachian State(8-2) 7
43South Florida(7-4) 10
44Tennessee(7-4) 6
45Arkansas(6-5) 6
46Penn State(7-4) 9
47Southern Mississippi(8-3) 5
48Miami FL(7-4) 3
49Arkansas State(7-3) 8
50Ohio(7-4) 5
51Arizona State(6-5) 15
52Georgia Southern(7-3) 4
53California(6-5) 9
54North Carolina State(7-4) 4
55Boise State(7-4) 9
56Auburn(6-5) 8
57Arizona(6-6) 8
58Central Michigan(6-5) 10
59West Virginia(6-4) 8
60Utah State(6-5) 13
61Nebraska(5-6) 7
62Cincinnati(6-5) 1
63Louisville(6-5) 6
64Colorado State(6-5) 12
65New Mexico(6-5) 5
66Connecticut(6-5) 12
67Nevada(6-5) 11
68Texas Tech(6-5) 9
69Western Michigan(6-5) 6
70Missouri(5-6) 8
71Middle Tennessee State(6-5)--
72Duke(6-5) 7
73Washington(5-6) 2
74Akron(6-5) 6
75Minnesota(5-6) 10
76Indiana(5-6) 3
77South Alabama(5-5) 8
78Illinois(5-6) 6
79Virginia Tech(5-6) 9
80Kentucky(5-6) 6
81Buffalo(5-6) 7
82San Jose State(5-6) 5
83East Carolina(5-6) 5
84Florida International(5-7) 7
85Texas(4-6) 3
86Old Dominion(5-6) 3
87Tulsa(5-6) 6
88Vanderbilt(4-7) 4
89Kansas State(4-6) 6
90Virginia(4-7) 9
91Georgia State(4-6) 12
92Colorado(4-8) 3
93Texas-El Paso(4-7) 3
94Louisiana-Lafayette(4-6) 3
95Rutgers(4-7) 11
96Georgia Tech(3-8) 3
97South Carolina(3-8) 5
98Rice(4-7) 4
99Syracuse(3-8) 3
100Boston College(3-8) 3
101New Mexico State(3-7) 17
102Texas State(3-7) 10
103Nevada-Las Vegas(3-8) 5
104Texas-San Antonio(3-8) 12
105Iowa State(3-8) 3
106Wake Forest(3-8) 6
107Fresno State(3-8) 6
108Kent State(3-8) 4
109Troy(3-7) 4
110Ball State(3-8) 3
111Idaho(3-8) 3
112Miami OH(3-9) 10
113Tulane(3-8) 4
114Maryland(2-9) 4
115Purdue(2-9) 3
116Oregon State(2-9) 3
117Charlotte(2-9) 2
118Florida Atlantic(2-9) 4
119Hawaii(2-10) 3
120Massachusetts(2-9) 2
121Army(2-9) 1
122Southern Methodist(2-9) 7
123Wyoming(1-10) 1
124North Texas(1-10) 2
125Louisiana-Monroe(1-10) 1
126Eastern Michigan(1-10) 3
127Central Florida(0-11) 1
128Kansas(0-11) 1

The weekly CFP rankings are out and the NCAAF Oracle has the same top six teams. The Oracle was also quite accurate in its rankings projections from last week that we are continuing with this analysis.

The Oracle wanted to find out if the rankings were really influenced by a November to remember or how would the ranks change if the committee had a short memory or perhaps they were nostalgic about the season. We set out the following experiment:

  • November to Remember: Games played in the month of November are given twice the weight by the Oracle.
  • Short Memory: The Oracle weights games according to how well it can remember, thus losing early will not hurt your rankings as much as if you lost recently. That is, later games are more important.¬†
  • Nostalgic: “Those were the days, my friends,¬†We thought they’d never end…” The Oracle misses the warmth of late summer, so it tried to give more¬†importance to the early games in the season

It turns out that how you weight the season does matter.

NCAAF Oracle: Week 12- Different Versions of Rankings

RankNCAAF OracleNov. to RememberShort MemoryNostalgic
1ClemsonAlabamaClemsonClemson
2AlabamaClemsonAlabamaMichigan State
3Michigan StateOklahomaMichigan StateAlabama
4IowaIowaOklahomaIowa
5OklahomaNotre DameIowaOhio State
6Notre DameMichigan StateNotre DameFlorida
7FloridaFloridaNorth CarolinaNotre Dame
8Ohio StateNorth CarolinaFloridaOklahoma
9North CarolinaOregonStanfordOklahoma State
10Oklahoma StateNorthwesternNavyNorthwestern
11NorthwesternNavyOhio StateUtah
12StanfordMichiganOklahoma StateStanford
13HoustonOhio StateMichiganNorth Carolina
14MichiganOklahoma StateOregonHouston
15NavyWashington StateNorthwesternMichigan
16Florida StateHoustonHoustonFlorida State
17UtahStanfordToledoMississippi
18MississippiToledoWashington StateTexas Christian
19OregonBaylorFlorida StateNavy
20ToledoGeorgiaBaylorMemphis
21BaylorMississippi StateMississippiTemple
22Mississippi StateNorthern IllinoisMississippi StateUCLA
23Texas ChristianFlorida StateWestern KentuckyTexas A&M
24UCLASouth FloridaUtahToledo
25TempleUCLAUCLABaylor

The NCAAF Oracle has looked at over 10,000 simulations of the season and figured out the final rankings before any conference games are played. Last year, this produces the correct picks for the CFP teams, so we taking the same approach for this season.

CFP Chances: NCAAF Oracle - Week 12

RankTeamRecordCFP Chances
1Clemson(11-0)89.54%
2Alabama(10-1)86.09%
3Michigan State(10-1)85.04%
4Iowa(11-0)64.49%
5Oklahoma(10-1)47.42%
6Notre Dame(10-1)17.06%
7Florida(10-1)8.35%
8Ohio State(10-1)1.45%
9Oklahoma State(10-1)0.49%
10Navy(9-1)0.07%

Chances that each team changes its rankings after the weekend.

Week12

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