2016 NFL – Week 09

Didn’t we say something about decaf coffee last week? Yeah, so about that…week 8 of the 2016 NFL season was “ehh” for NFL Oracle. Although it ended up going a respectable 8-5, this year did not compare to the past success during week 8. From 2012-15, NFL Oracle had gone 40-16, an incredible 71% success rate. Therefore, 2016’s 8-5 mark is a step back, even though a winning record was maintained. Another aspect that stands out is the fact that the season record thus far for NFL Oracle is 68-52. In every year since 2012, NFL Oracle has average 75 correct picks through this point in the season. However, the problem is not just with NFL Oracle; between the seven different prediction methods, none have an accuracy rate north of 60%, the first time this has ever happened on such a large scale. This begs the question, are the equations becoming outdated, or is the NFL just stepping up its game with more exciting match-ups?

Comparison Performance of Week 8 – Last Five years

Previous Week 8 Win % Massey Colley B Voter Keener PageRank Oracle
2012 11-3 10-4 11-3 9-5 8-6 7-7 10-4
2013 12-1 11-2 11-2 11-2 10-3 10-3 11-2
2014 10-5 10-5 11-4 11-4 11-4 9-6 10-5
2015 10-4 9-5 9-5 10-4 11-3 9-5 9-5
2016 8-5 7-6 8-5 7-6 4-9 4-9 8-5

Overall Performance up to Week 8

Acc. – up to Wk 8 Win % Massey Colley B Voter Keener PageRank Oracle
2012 57.6% 61.0% 58.5% 58.5% 61.0% 55.9% 61.9%
2013 64.2% 57.5% 56.7% 55.8% 54.2% 49.2% 62.5%
2014 59.5% 68.6% 62.8% 58.7% 61.2% 57.0% 62.0%
2015 62.2% 60.5% 66.4% 60.5% 58.8% 61.3% 66.4%
2016 55.8% 53.3% 55.0% 57.5% 53.3% 56.7% 56.7%

First and foremost, the (14) Washington Redskins and the (25) Cincinnati Bengals screwed everything up because their kickers could not make a field goal in overtime, resulting in a tie game. NFL Oracle predicted this to be a close game, but it certainly did not envision what actually occurred. Had the Redskins done what they should have, NFL Oracle would have been 9-4 this week. Instead, the tie game counted as a loss for NFL Oracle, as it predicted the Redskins to win.

Let’s give ourselves a pat on the back, as NFL Oracle predicted a very close game between the (13) Green Bay Packers and the (11) Atlanta Falcons, but ultimately picked the Falcons to win at home. In a game that saw a lot of back-and-forth, the Falcons did just that, scoring on their final possession to secure a 33-32 win in true nail-biter fashion.

Here comes the breakdown of our decaf picks. We told you last week that the blowout games to watch would be the (2) Minnesota Vikings over the (29) Chicago Bears, the (18) Arizona Cardinals over the (31) Carolina Panthers, the (26) New York Jets over the (32) Cleveland Browns, and the (7) Seattle Seahawks over the (27) New Orleans Saints. Well, the Vikings-Bears game could be considered a blowout, except for the fact that it was the Bears who blew out the Vikings – go figure. Similarly, the Panthers defeated the Cardinals by 10 points. The Jets were able to beat the Browns, but they by no means made it easy on themselves. The Browns led most of the game, but, when they could almost taste victory, irony got in the way, and they blew the game. Stay winless, Cleveland. Lastly, it is apparently foolish to bet against the Saints when they play at home, as quarterback Drew Brees led his team to victory over the higher-ranked Seahawks.

In terms of nail-biters, NFL Oracle gave the (1) New England Patriots a slight edge against the (9) Buffalo Bills, but that “slight edge” turned into a landslide win, 41-25. Some nail-biter.

RankTeamRecordTrending
1New England Patriots(7-1-0)--
2Dallas Cowboys(6-1-0) 1
3Denver Broncos(6-2-0) 1
4Oakland Raiders(6-2-0) 1
5Atlanta Falcons(5-3-0) 6
6Minnesota Vikings(5-2-0) 4
7Houston Texans(5-3-0) 8
8Kansas City Chiefs(5-2-0) 4
9Seattle Seahawks(4-2-1) 2
10New York Giants(4-3-0) 2
11Washington Redskins(4-3-1) 3
12Pittsburgh Steelers(4-3-0) 2
13Detroit Lions(4-4-0) 7
14Buffalo Bills(4-4-0) 5
15Green Bay Packers(4-3-0) 2
16Philadelphia Eagles(4-3-0)--
17Tennessee Titans(4-4-0) 4
18San Diego Chargers(3-5-0) 1
19Arizona Cardinals(3-4-1) 1
20Los Angeles Rams(3-4-0) 3
21Cincinnati Bengals(3-4-1) 4
22New Orleans Saints(3-4-0) 5
23Indianapolis Colts(3-5-0) 1
24Miami Dolphins(3-4-0) 4
25Tampa Bay Buccaneers(3-4-0) 1
26New York Jets(3-5-0)--
27Baltimore Ravens(3-4-0) 4
28Chicago Bears(2-6-0) 1
29Jacksonville Jaguars(2-5-0) 1
30Carolina Panthers(2-5-0) 1
31San Francisco 49ers(1-6-0) 1
32Cleveland Browns(0-8-0)--

Blowout: For the time being, it is safe to say that whoever plays the Browns is expected to win in blowout fashion. This week’s contender is the Romo-less (2) Dallas Cowboys. NFL Oracle gives Dak and Zeke 85% odds to essentially demolish whatever futile hope Cleveland has left. There is also a 78% match-up between the (29) Jacksonville Jaguars and the (8) Kansas City Chiefs, with the Chiefs given the benefit of the doubt that they can take care of business.

Nail-biter: Our only top-ten match-up this week is between the (3) Denver Broncos and the (4) Oakland Raiders – when’s the last time the Raiders were this good? The defending Super Bowl champs are still predicted to win with 61% odds, but this should be an exciting battle.

For other games to watch, there is the (22) New Orleans Saints against the (31) San Francisco 49ers, the (30) Carolina Panthers against the (20) Los Angeles Rams, and the (14) Buffalo Bills against the (9) Seattle Seahawks. In all of the games, NFL Oracle is predicting the lower-ranked team to upset the higher-ranked team, with confidence levels ranging from 52-61%.

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 03 2016(5) ATL @ (25) TB(5) ATL59.74%
Sun Nov 06 2016(16) PHI @ (10) NYG(16) PHI67.47%
Sun Nov 06 2016(2) DAL @ (32) CLE(2) DAL85.27%
Sun Nov 06 2016(26) NYJ @ (24) MIA(24) MIA56.77%
Sun Nov 06 2016(29) JAC @ (8) KC(8) KC77.93%
Sun Nov 06 2016(13) DET @ (6) MIN(6) MIN64.13%
Sun Nov 06 2016(12) PIT @ (27) BAL(12) PIT72.42%
Sun Nov 06 2016(22) NO @ (31) SF(31) SF52.08%
Sun Nov 06 2016(30) CAR @ (20) LA(30) CAR51.93%
Sun Nov 06 2016(23) IND @ (15) GB(15) GB56.47%
Sun Nov 06 2016(17) TEN @ (18) SD(18) SD55.32%
Sun Nov 06 2016(3) DEN @ (4) OAK(3) DEN60.98%
Mon Nov 07 2016(14) BUF @ (9) SEA(14) BUF61.14%

Here is a more in-depth look at the week 8 results:

[62.90%]: (28) Jacksonville Jaguars 22 @ (21) Tennessee Titans 36
[53.43%]: (14) Washington Redskins 27 @ (25) Cincinnati Bengals 27
[72.16%]: (18) Arizona Cardinals 20 @ (31) Carolina Panthers 30
[53.48%]: (1) New England Patriots 41 @ (9) Buffalo Bills 25
[64.33%]: (12) Kansas City Chiefs 30 @ (22) Indianapolis Colts 14
[73.20%]: (26) New York Jets 31 @ (32) Cleveland Browns 28
[51.60%]: (5) Oakland Raiders 30 @ (24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
[70.95%]: (7) Seattle Seahawks 20 @ (27) New Orleans Saints 25
[51.39%]: (6) Detroit Lions 13 @ (15) Houston Texans 20
[59.23%]: (19) San Diego Chargers 19 @ (4) Denver Broncos 27
[56.22%]: (13) Green Bay Packers 32 @ (11) Atlanta Falcons 33
[55.85%]: (16) Philadelphia Eagles 23 @ (3) Dallas Cowboys 29
[78.90%]: (2) Minnesota Vikings 10 @ (29) Chicago Bears 20

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

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