2016 NFL – Week 11

Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season was one of the best ones NFL Oracle has seen in a while, posting a 10-4 record. Making matters even better is that the four incorrect picks made by NFL Oracle had a confidence range from 53-63%, indicating games that were generally expected to be closer. On the high end of that range was the (2) New England Patriots match-up with the (8) Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that NFL Oracle favored the Patriots at home, this game was a shootout with plenty of excitement, ultimately being decided by a touchdown.

As far as our analyses from last week, they ended up being fairly accurate as well. One of our Week 10 blowout games was between the (11) Houston Texans against division-rival (30) Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville’s Quarterback Blake Bortles came through in garbage-time as usual, but it was too little, too late, and the Texans remained undefeated in the division. The other blowout game was between the (22) Baltimore Ravens and the (32) Cleveland Browns. Guess what, the Ravens decimated the Browns 28-7. We really went out on a ledge with that analysis. Regarding the nail-biters, the (19) Philadelphia Eagles defied the odds and bested the (3) Atlanta Falcons 24-15, so this game was not as close as anticipated. Other than that, the other two nail-biters, the (4) Dallas Cowboys versus the (14) Pittsburgh Steelers and the (9) Minnesota Vikings versus the (12) Washington Redskins, were just that, nail-biters. As predicted, Dallas stayed on their hot streak to win their eighth straight game. However, NFL Oracle apparently had too much faith in the Vikings to end their three game losing streak, as the Redskins extended that streak to four.

Here is a more in-depth look at the week 10 results:

[74.81%]: (32) Cleveland Browns 7 @ (22) Baltimore Ravens 28
[71.26%]: (11) Houston Texans 24 @ (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 21
[63.05%]: (5) Kansas City Chiefs 20 @ (27) Carolina Panthers 17
[59.38%]: (9) Minnesota Vikings 20 @ (12) Washington Redskins 26
[57.78%]: (29) Chicago Bears 10 @ (26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36
[52.83%]: (15) Green Bay Packers 25 @ (20) Tennessee Titans 47
[50.09%]: (3) Atlanta Falcons 15 @ (19) Philadelphia Eagles 24
[52.61%]: (24) Los Angeles Rams 9 @ (28) New York Jets 6
[63.51%]: (6) Denver Broncos 25 @ (18) New Orleans Saints 23
[54.80%]: (21) Miami Dolphins 31 @ (13) San Diego Chargers 24
[66.61%]: (31) San Francisco 49ers 20 @ (23) Arizona Cardinals 23
[53.08%]: (4) Dallas Cowboys 35 @ (14) Pittsburgh Steelers 30
[63.38%]: (8) Seattle Seahawks 31 @ (2) New England Patriots 24
[55.93%]: (25) Cincinnati Bengals 20 @ (7) New York Giants 21

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 11

With their continued surge, the Cowboys have now moved into first on our power ranking list. The big movers of Week 10 included the Eagles, Tennessee Titans, and Miami Dolphins, who all moved up six spots to 13, 14, and 15, respectively. The Los Angeles Rams also jumped up six spots to number 18. Matching these jumps, albeit in a negative way, were the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, who fell six spots to 23 and 24, respectively.

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(8-1-0) 3
2Oakland Raiders(7-2-0) 1
3Denver Broncos(7-3-0) 3
4New England Patriots(7-2-0) 2
5Kansas City Chiefs(7-2-0)--
6Seattle Seahawks(6-2-1) 2
7Atlanta Falcons(6-4-0) 4
8New York Giants(6-3-0) 1
9Houston Texans(6-3-0) 2
10Washington Redskins(5-3-1) 2
11Detroit Lions(5-4-0) 1
12Minnesota Vikings(5-4-0) 3
13Philadelphia Eagles(5-4-0) 6
14Tennessee Titans(5-5-0) 6
15Miami Dolphins(5-4-0) 6
16San Diego Chargers(4-6-0) 3
17Pittsburgh Steelers(4-5-0) 3
18Los Angeles Rams(4-5-0) 6
19Baltimore Ravens(5-4-0) 3
20Green Bay Packers(4-5-0) 5
21Buffalo Bills(4-5-0) 5
22Arizona Cardinals(4-4-1) 1
23Indianapolis Colts(4-5-0) 6
24New Orleans Saints(4-5-0) 6
25Tampa Bay Buccaneers(4-5-0) 1
26Cincinnati Bengals(3-5-1) 1
27Carolina Panthers(3-6-0)--
28New York Jets(3-7-0)--
29Chicago Bears(2-7-0)--
30Jacksonville Jaguars(2-7-0)--
31San Francisco 49ers(1-8-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(0-10-0)--

Blowout: It’s getting to the point where we hate to do this to you, but, returning to the blowout octagon are the, still in last place, (32) Browns. Once again, the Browns are expected to be the butt of this joke, as the (17) Steelers have 84% odds to win this matchup. The next-best confidence level favors the (4) Patriots over the (31) San Francisco 49ers at 75%.

Nail-biter: On Thursday Night Football, you can see the (24) Saints take on the (27) Carolina Panthers. NFL Oracle considers the Saints to be the slight favorites, having a confidence level of 50.67%.

Other games of note are the top-ten matchup between the (9) Texans and the (2) Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have 55% odds to win this game that is scheduled to be played in Mexico City on Monday Night Football, so expect a good game. Another close matchup is between the (15) Dolphins and the (18) Rams, Miami given the benefit of the doubt with 55% odds as well.

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 17 2016(24) NO @ (27) CAR(24) NO50.67%
Sun Nov 20 2016(29) CHI @ (8) NYG(8) NYG64.01%
Sun Nov 20 2016(21) BUF @ (26) CIN(21) BUF65.47%
Sun Nov 20 2016(19) BAL @ (1) DAL(1) DAL64.37%
Sun Nov 20 2016(17) PIT @ (32) CLE(17) PIT83.93%
Sun Nov 20 2016(14) TEN @ (23) IND(14) TEN58.17%
Sun Nov 20 2016(25) TB @ (5) KC(5) KC57.45%
Sun Nov 20 2016(22) ARI @ (12) MIN(22) ARI51.95%
Sun Nov 20 2016(30) JAC @ (11) DET(11) DET68.69%
Sun Nov 20 2016(15) MIA @ (18) LA(15) MIA55.34%
Sun Nov 20 2016(13) PHI @ (6) SEA(13) PHI53.30%
Sun Nov 20 2016(4) NE @ (31) SF(4) NE75.24%
Sun Nov 20 2016(20) GB @ (10) WAS(10) WAS55.29%
Mon Nov 21 2016(9) HOU @ (2) OAK(2) OAK55.26%

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 11

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 3 12.5 98.6% 88.2% 85.8% 21.3%
2 OAK 1 10.6 79.1% 26.6% 24.8% 3.6%
3 DEN 3 10.6 78.1% 29.5% 27.6% 8.7%
4 NE 2 11.6 95.4% 89.6% 82.5% 24.9%
5 KC 11.0 84.5% 43.9% 38.6% 7.7%
6 SEA 2 10.8 90.9% 85.1% 60.6% 6.8%
7 ATL 4 9.6 81.6% 78.7% 19.3% 6.6%
8 NYG 1 9.3 53.3% 5.8% 4.8% 1.1%
9 HOU 2 9.6 81.3% 80.1% 12.9% 2.1%
10 WAS 2 9.1 47.0% 3.0% 2.6% 1.2%
11 DET 1 8.6 47.1% 39.3% 6.7% 0.9%
12 MIN 3 9.0 58.2% 52.3% 8.2% 1.9%
13 PHI 6 9.2 47.8% 3.0% 2.8% 4.7%
14 TEN 6 8.3 22.7% 15.1% 1.5% 0.6%
15 MIA 6 8.6 27.0% 8.2% 5.4% 0.8%
16 SD 3 7.0 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
17 PIT 3 8.2 45.0% 42.9% 1.7% 2.1%
18 LA 6 6.8 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
19 BAL 3 8.1 50.3% 49.4% 3.6% 1.0%
20 GB 5 6.8 9.7% 8.1% 0.3% 0.1%
21 BUF 5 8.5 20.8% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2%
22 ARI 1 8.5 31.5% 13.6% 6.5% 1.5%
23 IND 6 7.0 6.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.1%
24 NO 6 7.1 10.2% 8.0% 0.6% 0.2%
25 TB 1 7.7 19.7% 12.8% 1.4% 0.4%
26 CIN 1 6.3 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.1%
27 CAR 5.5 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 5.4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
29 CHI 4.5 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 4.4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 2.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

Impact game of the Week: ARI @ MIN
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.
 

If ARI wins If MIN wins
DET 43.88% DET 38.93%
MIN 55.46% MIN 77.28%
ARI 41.45% ARI 18.07%
SEA 86.73% SEA 91.56%

Swing games of the Week:
These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:
 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

If PHI wins If SEA wins
PHI 60.30% PHI 32.63%
SEA 83.78% SEA 95.77%

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

If CHI wins If NYG wins
CHI 0.28% CHI 0.04%
NYG 46.26% NYG 72.14%

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins

If GB wins If WAS wins
GB 16.82% GB 5.55%
WAS 24.45% WAS 49.99%

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

If PIT wins If CLE wins
PIT 65.11% PIT 40.14%
CLE 0.00% CLE 0.00%

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

If ARI wins If MIN wins
ARI 41.45% ARI 18.07%
MIN 55.46% MIN 77.28%

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

If TEN wins If IND wins
TEN 31.04% TEN 9.05%
IND 1.15% IND 11.10%

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

If BUF wins If CIN wins
BUF 33.52% BUF 11.54%
CIN 2.84% CIN 10.23%

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

If JAC wins If DET wins
JAC 0.00% JAC 0.00%
DET 24.88% DET 45.56%

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

If BAL wins If DAL wins
BAL 48.39% BAL 27.98%
DAL 96.73% DAL 99.17%

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders

If HOU wins If OAK wins
HOU 92.75% HOU 79.69%
OAK 69.34% OAK 87.64%

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

If MIA wins If LA wins
MIA 27.61% MIA 12.19%
LA 1.07% LA 5.17%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs

If TB wins If KC wins
TB 23.55% TB 8.82%
KC 72.58% KC 86.30%

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

If NO wins If CAR wins
NO 15.37% NO 4.38%
CAR 0.12% CAR 2.17%

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers

If NE wins If SF wins
NE 98.67% NE 95.83%
SF 0.00% SF 0.00%

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

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