2016 NFL – Week 12

Call it another successful week for NFL Oracle, as it went 9-5 with its predictions. The silver lining for those five incorrect picks is that all of those games had confidence levels in the 50th percentile, indicating closer match-ups. Additionally, with exception to the (13) Philadelphia Eagles, all of the losing picks remained within one touchdown of their opponent.

We’re really proud of our blowout pick from last week; as per usual, the (32) Cleveland Browns did not disappoint, losing yet again. After successfully accumulating 11 straight losses, the Browns have effectively eliminated themselves from playoff contention, but more on that later. Our other rather high confidence pick was the (4) New England Patriots over the (31) San Francisco 49ers; New England dominated on the road, beating San Francisco handily 30-17. As far as our nail-biter, our consolation lies in that the (24) New Orleans Saints only had 50.67% odds of winning, meaning that the (27) Carolina Panthers had a legitimate shot to win. And they did!

Here is a more in-depth look at the week 11 results:

[50.67%]: (24) New Orleans Saints 20 @ (27) Carolina Panthers 23
[51.95%]: (22) Arizona Cardinals 24 @ (12) Minnesota Vikings 30
[64.01%]: (29) Chicago Bears 16 @ (8) New York Giants 22
[64.37%]: (19) Baltimore Ravens 17 @ (1) Dallas Cowboys 27
[68.69%]: (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 19 @ (11) Detroit Lions 26
[57.45%]: (25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 @ (5) Kansas City Chiefs 17
[58.17%]: (14) Tennessee Titans 17 @ (23) Indianapolis Colts 24
[65.47%]: (21) Buffalo Bills 16 @ (26) Cincinnati Bengals 12
[83.93%]: (17) Pittsburgh Steelers 24 @ (32) Cleveland Browns 9
[55.34%]: (15) Miami Dolphins 14 @ (18) Los Angeles Rams 10
[53.30%]: (13) Philadelphia Eagles 15 @ (6) Seattle Seahawks 26
[75.24%]: (4) New England Patriots 30 @ (31) San Francisco 49ers 17
[55.29%]: (20) Green Bay Packers 24 @ (10) Washington Redskins 42
[55.26%]: (9) Houston Texans 20 @ (2) Oakland Raiders 27

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 12

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 12.9 99.3% 91.0% 88.0% 21.4%
2 OAK 11.0 86.1% 39.6% 38.3% 4.6%
3 SEA 3 11.4 97.5% 95.9% 74.8% 14.1%
4 NE 11.9 97.1% 91.3% 88.5% 25.7%
5 NYG 3 9.7 61.9% 5.7% 4.5% 1.4%
6 DEN 3 10.6 77.3% 30.2% 28.7% 6.3%
7 KC 2 10.3 74.9% 30.2% 26.1% 4.8%
8 ATL 1 9.6 79.6% 75.7% 11.5% 3.6%
9 WAS 1 9.5 58.1% 2.7% 2.4% 1.4%
10 MIN 2 9.6 69.1% 57.8% 10.0% 2.6%
11 DET 9.0 52.1% 39.4% 5.3% 1.0%
12 HOU 3 9.3 79.4% 78.8% 5.3% 1.5%
13 MIA 2 9.0 34.8% 7.6% 5.9% 1.1%
14 TB 11 8.3 32.4% 20.7% 1.9% 0.8%
15 PHI 2 8.6 27.2% 0.7% 0.5% 1.5%
16 BUF 5 8.6 19.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0%
17 PIT 8.9 67.4% 65.3% 4.5% 5.6%
18 IND 5 7.7 16.5% 14.5% 0.4% 0.3%
19 TEN 5 7.7 9.9% 6.6% 0.2% 0.2%
20 SD 4 7.0 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 LA 3 6.4 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
22 BAL 3 7.7 33.0% 31.6% 1.4% 0.6%
23 GB 3 6.4 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1%
24 ARI 2 7.8 13.2% 3.8% 1.0% 0.4%
25 NO 1 6.4 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CAR 1 6.1 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
27 CIN 1 5.9 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 5.4 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 CHI 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 4.1 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 12

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Nov 24 2016(10) MIN @ (11) DET(10) MIN58.55%
Thu Nov 24 2016(9) WAS @ (1) DAL(1) DAL60.30%
Thu Nov 24 2016(17) PIT @ (18) IND(17) PIT63.72%
Sun Nov 27 2016(20) SD @ (12) HOU(20) SD50.85%
Sun Nov 27 2016(27) CIN @ (22) BAL(22) BAL56.00%
Sun Nov 27 2016(30) JAC @ (16) BUF(16) BUF78.33%
Sun Nov 27 2016(5) NYG @ (32) CLE(5) NYG79.27%
Sun Nov 27 2016(21) LA @ (25) NO(25) NO51.31%
Sun Nov 27 2016(19) TEN @ (29) CHI(19) TEN64.16%
Sun Nov 27 2016(31) SF @ (13) MIA(13) MIA63.10%
Sun Nov 27 2016(24) ARI @ (8) ATL(8) ATL50.98%
Sun Nov 27 2016(3) SEA @ (14) TB(3) SEA56.71%
Sun Nov 27 2016(7) KC @ (6) DEN(6) DEN51.19%
Sun Nov 27 2016(26) CAR @ (2) OAK(2) OAK60.67%
Sun Nov 27 2016(4) NE @ (28) NYJ(4) NE76.29%
Mon Nov 28 2016(23) GB @ (15) PHI(15) PHI65.17%

Impact game of the Week: WAS @ DAL

Among all the games this week, the results of this match-up will have the most significant impact on the postseason odds for the largest number of teams. It should be noted that (1) Dallas has 60% odds of winning, according to NFL Oracle.

If WAS wins If DAL wins
NYG 65.28% NYG 69.94%
PHI 21.59% PHI 27.36%
WAS 76.89% WAS 50.66%
DET 42.49% DET 46.59%

Interestingly, (9) Washington would help its own playoff odds out the most by winning this game, as to be expected by how close the NFC East is this year. On the other hand, Dallas has secured a comfortable position atop the NFC, and therefore their playoff odds are not severely impacted by the outcome of this game. If the Redskins are able to pull off a victory, it will significantly reduce the current odds of making the playoffs for the Giants, Eagles, and Lions. As such, you can be sure that those three teams will be rooting for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. That may be the first time in a while that we’ve been able to say that.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the games where the results will have the largest swing on the playoff odds for at least one of the teams involved:

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

If MIN wins Curr. Odds If DET wins
MIN 90.94% MIN 69.36% MIN 52.49%
DET 28.78% DET 52.44% DET 71.08%

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

If KC wins Curr. Odds If DEN wins
KC 85.42% KC 74.88% KC 55.11%
DEN 54.33% DEN 77.79% DEN 84.72%


Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

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