2016 NFL – Week 13

It looks like the holidays came for NFL Oracle, too, as it went 12-4 during week 12, its best mark in several weeks. As always, we try to justify those incorrect picks and show you how close NFL Oracle was to having a perfect record for the week. On that note, with exception to the (23) Green Bay Packers versus the (15) Philadelphia Eagles, all of the incorrect picks were games in which the team predicted to win only had odds in the 50th percentile. To try and explain why NFL Oracle may have been wrong for giving the Eagles 65% odds to beat the Packers, the cheeseheads had been struggling in recent games, and they definitely were not looking like the elite team they’ve typically been year-in and year-out. NFL Oracle, next time, try a discount double-check when betting against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Last week was also the first week that we analyzed data looking at playoffs odds. We told you that the (9) Washington Redskins and (1) Dallas Cowboys game was going to be the impact game of the week, and this game certainly did not fail to disappoint. NFL Oracle chose correctly that the surging Cowboys would come away with a Thanksgiving win, and the playoff landscape was shaken up because of it. Thanks in part to this game, the playoff odds for the New York Giants increased by 8% to 70% while the Detroit Lions jumped 6% to 58%. However, not everybody benefited from this game, as the Eagles and Redskins saw their playoff chances drop to 11% and 49%, respectively.

For the swing games, we gave you the (10) Minnesota Vikings against the Lions, with the Vikings favored at 59%. We also told you to keep an eye on (7) Kansas City Chiefs and the (6) Denver Broncos, with the Broncos getting a slight edge at 51%. Even though NFL Oracle was wrong on both of these picks, both games had the largest impact on the teams involved. Thanks to their winning effort, the Chiefs now have a 91% chance of making the playoffs, dropping Denver’s odds to 43%. As for the Vikings, their loss to the Lions dropped their playoff odds to 45%.

Here’s a more in-depth look at the week 12 results:

[58.55%]: (10) Minnesota Vikings 13 @ (11) Detroit Lions 16
[60.30%]: (9) Washington Redskins 26 @ (1) Dallas Cowboys 31
[63.72%]: (17) Pittsburgh Steelers 28 @ (18) Indianapolis Colts 7
[64.16%]: (19) Tennessee Titans 27 @ (29) Chicago Bears 21
[63.10%]: (31) San Francisco 49ers 24 @ (13) Miami Dolphins 31
[50.98%]: (24) Arizona Cardinals 19 @ (8) Atlanta Falcons 38
[51.31%]: (21) Los Angeles Rams 21 @ (25) New Orleans Saints 49
[78.33%]: (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 21 @ (16) Buffalo Bills 28
[50.85%]: (20) San Diego Chargers 21 @ (12) Houston Texans 13
[56.00%]: (27) Cincinnati Bengals 14 @ (22) Baltimore Ravens 19
[79.27%]: (5) New York Giants 27 @ (32) Cleveland Browns 13
[56.71%]: (3) Seattle Seahawks 5 @ (14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
[60.67%]: (26) Carolina Panthers 32 @ (2) Oakland Raiders 35
[76.29%]: (4) New England Patriots 22 @ (28) New York Jets 17
[51.19%]: (7) Kansas City Chiefs 30 @ (6) Denver Broncos 27
[65.17%]: (23) Green Bay Packers 27 @ (15) Philadelphia Eagles 13

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 13

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 13.3 99.8% 94.5% 93.2% 21.8%
2 OAK 11.4 91.8% 44.4% 43.3% 4.8%
3 NE 1 12.3 98.3% 93.1% 91.8% 26.4%
4 KC 3 10.9 90.9% 50.5% 46.6% 8.3%
5 SEA 2 10.8 96.4% 95.4% 55.8% 7.6%
6 NYG 1 10.1 70.4% 5.3% 4.6% 1.7%
7 ATL 1 10.2 87.4% 77.2% 31.6% 9.4%
8 DET 3 9.1 58.1% 51.9% 6.6% 1.1%
9 DEN 3 9.6 42.7% 5.1% 4.7% 1.9%
10 WAS 1 9.2 48.6% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2%
11 MIA 2 9.4 43.1% 6.5% 5.8% 1.3%
12 MIN 2 8.9 44.6% 32.1% 2.6% 1.4%
13 TB 1 9.0 51.0% 20.2% 4.5% 1.7%
14 HOU 2 8.7 68.1% 67.8% 1.0% 1.1%
15 PIT 2 9.2 70.1% 66.9% 5.0% 6.9%
16 TEN 3 8.0 19.7% 17.6% 0.2% 0.4%
17 BUF 1 9.0 23.7% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
18 SD 2 7.4 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 GB 4 7.6 18.3% 15.9% 0.3% 0.3%
20 BAL 2 8.0 34.7% 32.5% 1.2% 0.6%
21 IND 3 7.4 14.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.2%
22 PHI 7 7.9 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
23 NO 2 7.1 5.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1%
24 LA 3 6.0 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
25 ARI 1 7.5 8.1% 4.4% 0.2% 0.2%
26 CAR 5.8 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
27 CIN 5.6 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 5.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 CHI 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(10-1-0)--
2Oakland Raiders(9-2-0)--
3New England Patriots(9-2-0) 1
4Kansas City Chiefs(8-3-0) 3
5Seattle Seahawks(7-3-1) 2
6New York Giants(8-3-0) 1
7Atlanta Falcons(7-4-0) 1
8Detroit Lions(7-4-0) 3
9Denver Broncos(7-4-0) 3
10Washington Redskins(6-4-1) 1
11Miami Dolphins(7-4-0) 2
12Minnesota Vikings(6-5-0) 2
13Tampa Bay Buccaneers(6-5-0) 1
14Houston Texans(6-5-0) 2
15Pittsburgh Steelers(6-5-0) 2
16Tennessee Titans(6-6-0) 3
17Buffalo Bills(6-5-0) 1
18San Diego Chargers(5-6-0) 2
19Green Bay Packers(5-6-0) 4
20Baltimore Ravens(6-5-0) 2
21Indianapolis Colts(5-6-0) 3
22Philadelphia Eagles(5-6-0) 7
23New Orleans Saints(5-6-0) 2
24Los Angeles Rams(4-7-0) 3
25Arizona Cardinals(4-6-1) 1
26Carolina Panthers(4-7-0)--
27Cincinnati Bengals(3-7-1)--
28New York Jets(3-8-0)--
29Chicago Bears(2-9-0)--
30Jacksonville Jaguars(2-9-0)--
31San Francisco 49ers(1-10-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(0-12-0)--

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 14

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Dec 01 2016(1) DAL @ (12) MIN(1) DAL59.68%
Sun Dec 04 2016(9) DEN @ (30) JAC(9) DEN78.52%
Sun Dec 04 2016(11) MIA @ (20) BAL(11) MIA52.79%
Sun Dec 04 2016(4) KC @ (7) ATL(7) ATL51.32%
Sun Dec 04 2016(24) LA @ (3) NE(3) NE72.35%
Sun Dec 04 2016(8) DET @ (23) NO(23) NO52.87%
Sun Dec 04 2016(14) HOU @ (19) GB(19) GB51.96%
Sun Dec 04 2016(22) PHI @ (27) CIN(22) PHI67.07%
Sun Dec 04 2016(31) SF @ (29) CHI(31) SF51.95%
Sun Dec 04 2016(17) BUF @ (2) OAK(17) BUF50.70%
Sun Dec 04 2016(13) TB @ (18) SD(13) TB54.13%
Sun Dec 04 2016(10) WAS @ (25) ARI(25) ARI51.01%
Sun Dec 04 2016(6) NYG @ (15) PIT(15) PIT59.47%
Sun Dec 04 2016(26) CAR @ (5) SEA(5) SEA63.30%
Mon Dec 05 2016(21) IND @ (28) NYJ(21) IND58.59%

Impact game of the Week: NYG @ PIT
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If NYG wins If PIT wins
DAL 99.74% DAL 99.79%
BAL 38.37% BAL 21.59%
PIT 64.07% PIT 84.64%
NYG 86.72% NYG 62.40%
WAS 48.45% WAS 52.72%
MIN 45.91% MIN 51.35%
TB 34.73% TB 41.03%

This week’s impact game is interesting because, unlike last week’s game, the higher ranked team effects a larger number of teams’ playoff odds negatively, if they win. So, if the (6) New York Giants win, the odds for Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay go down. Don’t get too stressed though; the Dallas percentage will only drop 0.06%, so it is safe to say that Dallas does not really care who wins. The only team that will be rooting for the New York Giants to win, besides the Giants, will be Baltimore.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

If MIA wins Curr. Odds If BAL wins
MIA 56.26% MIA 43.23% MIA 23.29%
BAL 17.38% BAL 34.70% BAL 40.06%

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

If KC wins Curr. Odds If ATL wins
KC 90.88% KC 90.82% KC 76.18%
ATL 84.61% ATL 87.39% ATL 94.72%

 

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

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