2016 NFL – Week 14

“Winter is coming here.” It may have taken longer than we may have liked, but it’s finally getting cold – thank you, Texas. Unfortunately, that cold has extended over to the NFL Oracle. A week after posting a 12-4 record, NFL Oracle experienced a setback, going 9-6 during week 13. Some of these games were predicted to be nail-biters, like the (11) Miami Dolphins over the (20) Baltimore Ravens, or the (31) San Francisco 49ers over the (29) Chicago Bears, but man, were those picks wrong! Both games ended in blowouts, with NFL Oracle’s picks getting the beatings. Another incorrect pick came when NFL Oracle chose the (17) Buffalo Bills to upset the (2) Oakland Raiders; clearly, this Carr is better than his older brother, and it is futile to bet against him. Choosing (7) Atlanta Falcons over (4) Kansas City Chiefs wasn’t a bad pick, and it would’ve paid off had it not been for a field goal that ricocheted through the uprights, somehow, allowing the Chiefs to pull out the win. As for the (23) New Orleans Sains and the (8) Detroit Lions, giving the Saints the odds couldn’t be blamed too much considering how dynamic the Saints offense is, but it was the Lions who silenced Drew Brees and stole the show.

Last week’s “Impact game” was between the (6) New York Giants and the (15) Pittsburgh Steelers. As far as the rest of the league was concerned, the outcome of the Steelers winning was the best-case scenario: Dallas, Washington, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and of course Pittsburgh all saw their playoff odds increase as a result of this game. Poor Baltimore saw their playoff chances seemingly vanish, as they fell to 22% odds thanks to the Steelers. Regarding the Giants, they’ve still got hope, as this loss still left their odds far above 50%, sitting at a liveable-but-uncomfortable 62%.

Luckily for Baltimore, they were one of our swing games last week, and their win over Miami helped offset the damage done by the Pittsburgh win, which we said “seemingly” made their playoff chances vanish. Well, because Baltimore took control of what they could, their win was rewarded with increased playoff odds to 45%.

Our other swing game was between the Chiefs and Falcons, which we mentioned above. Both teams still have strong playoff odds, and are considered top-10 teams for making the playoffs, so the close match-up between these two did not seriously hurt either team.

Here’s a more in-depth look at the week 13 results:

[59.68%]: (1) Dallas Cowboys 17 @ (12) Minnesota Vikings 15
[78.52%]: (9) Denver Broncos 20 @ (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 10
[52.79%]: (11) Miami Dolphins 6 @ (20) Baltimore Ravens 38
[51.32%]: (4) Kansas City Chiefs 29 @ (7) Atlanta Falcons 28
[72.35%]: (24) Los Angeles Rams 10 @ (3) New England Patriots 26
[52.87%]: (8) Detroit Lions 28 @ (23) New Orleans Saints 13
[51.96%]: (14) Houston Texans 13 @ (19) Green Bay Packers 21
[67.07%]: (22) Philadelphia Eagles 14 @ (27) Cincinnati Bengals 32
[51.95%]: (31) San Francisco 49ers 6 @ (29) Chicago Bears 26
[50.70%]: (17) Buffalo Bills 24 @ (2) Oakland Raiders 38
[54.13%]: (13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 @ (18) San Diego Chargers 21
[51.01%]: (10) Washington Redskins 23 @ (25) Arizona Cardinals 31
[59.47%]: (6) New York Giants 14 @ (15) Pittsburgh Steelers 24
[63.30%]: (26) Carolina Panthers 7 @ (5) Seattle Seahawks 40
[58.59%]: (21) Indianapolis Colts 41 @ (28) New York Jets 10

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 14

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 13.6 100.0% 99.2% 98.1% 21.9%
2 OAK 12.6 99.8% 69.3% 69.2% 9.8%
3 NE 12.6 99.5% 98.7% 97.5% 27.4%
4 KC 11.3 96.2% 29.2% 28.5% 5.1%
5 SEA 11.1 98.1% 96.6% 66.3% 12.5%
6 DET 2 10.3 92.4% 88.5% 22.0% 2.8%
7 DEN 2 9.7 55.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%
8 NYG 2 9.4 52.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
9 ATL 2 9.6 83.8% 65.5% 8.4% 4.1%
10 TB 3 9.3 70.4% 32.7% 4.2% 2.4%
11 PIT 4 9.6 70.0% 61.5% 1.0% 6.2%
12 WAS 2 8.8 40.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
13 MIN 1 8.6 30.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.8%
14 MIA 3 8.7 21.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4%
15 HOU 1 8.0 44.7% 44.3% 0.0% 0.7%
16 BAL 4 8.7 45.4% 38.1% 1.3% 1.0%
17 GB 2 7.7 13.3% 7.2% 0.2% 0.2%
18 IND 3 8.0 35.9% 35.3% 0.0% 0.6%
19 BUF 2 8.3 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
20 TEN 4 8.0 22.6% 20.4% 0.0% 0.4%
21 SD 3 7.0 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 3 7.8 11.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.4%
23 PHI 1 7.3 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
24 NO 1 6.4 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
25 LA 1 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CIN 1 6.2 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
27 CAR 1 5.4 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 CHI 1 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 NYJ 1 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 2.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 14

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(11-1-0)--
2Oakland Raiders(10-2-0)--
3New England Patriots(10-2-0)--
4Kansas City Chiefs(9-3-0)--
5Seattle Seahawks(8-3-1)--
6Detroit Lions(8-4-0) 2
7Denver Broncos(8-4-0) 2
8New York Giants(8-4-0) 2
9Atlanta Falcons(7-5-0) 2
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers(7-5-0) 3
11Pittsburgh Steelers(7-5-0) 4
12Washington Redskins(6-5-1) 2
13Minnesota Vikings(6-6-0) 1
14Miami Dolphins(7-5-0) 3
15Houston Texans(6-6-0) 1
16Baltimore Ravens(7-5-0) 4
17Green Bay Packers(6-6-0) 2
18Indianapolis Colts(6-6-0) 3
19Buffalo Bills(6-6-0) 2
20Tennessee Titans(6-6-0) 4
21San Diego Chargers(5-7-0) 3
22Arizona Cardinals(5-6-1) 3
23Philadelphia Eagles(5-7-0) 1
24New Orleans Saints(5-7-0) 1
25Los Angeles Rams(4-8-0) 1
26Cincinnati Bengals(4-7-1) 1
27Carolina Panthers(4-8-0) 1
28Chicago Bears(3-9-0) 1
29New York Jets(3-9-0) 1
30Jacksonville Jaguars(2-10-0)--
31San Francisco 49ers(1-11-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(0-12-0)--

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 14

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Dec 08 2016(2) OAK @ (4) KC(2) OAK50.07%
Sun Dec 11 2016(15) HOU @ (18) IND(18) IND54.63%
Sun Dec 11 2016(24) NO @ (10) TB(10) TB56.83%
Sun Dec 11 2016(28) CHI @ (6) DET(6) DET60.24%
Sun Dec 11 2016(7) DEN @ (20) TEN(7) DEN58.49%
Sun Dec 11 2016(26) CIN @ (32) CLE(26) CIN76.04%
Sun Dec 11 2016(13) MIN @ (30) JAC(13) MIN73.75%
Sun Dec 11 2016(11) PIT @ (19) BUF(11) PIT56.48%
Sun Dec 11 2016(21) SD @ (27) CAR(21) SD56.86%
Sun Dec 11 2016(22) ARI @ (14) MIA(22) ARI55.31%
Sun Dec 11 2016(12) WAS @ (23) PHI(23) PHI54.84%
Sun Dec 11 2016(29) NYJ @ (31) SF(29) NYJ51.18%
Sun Dec 11 2016(5) SEA @ (17) GB(5) SEA60.28%
Sun Dec 11 2016(9) ATL @ (25) LA(9) ATL66.68%
Sun Dec 11 2016(1) DAL @ (8) NYG(1) DAL62.69%
Mon Dec 12 2016(16) BAL @ (3) NE(3) NE60.70%

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

Impact game of the Week: DEN @ TEN
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds across the largest number of teams.

If DEN wins If TEN wins
BUF 7.08% BUF 12.96%
MIA 14.77% MIA 26.64%
BAL 40.95% BAL 46.08%
HOU 51.48% HOU 40.16%
IND 40.59% IND 30.34%
TEN 8.62% TEN 35.61%
DEN 74.14% DEN 39.38%

This match-up is certainly one of the most interesting ones during week 14. Denver is currently third in a very intense AFC West, two games behind Oakland and one behind Kansas City. At this point in the season, the Broncos can only worry about what they can control and hope that either one of those two teams stumbles in this final stretch. Tennessee is currently in a three-way tie for first in the AFC South – the NFL’s premier division…haha. The two teams the Titans are tied with, Houston and Indianapolis, are playing each other this week, so a win would guarantee the Titans a game of separation over one of them. As such, both the Texans and Colts will be pulling for the Broncos, but those are the only teams that will be happy with a Bronco win. Buffalo, Miami, and Baltimore would all be very appreciative if the Titans can emerge victorious, as that would give them some hope of making the playoffs.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

If HOU wins Curr. Odds If IND wins
HOU 75.80% HOU 43.80% HOU 24.81%
IND 6.45% IND 36.81% IND 60.25%

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If NO wins Curr. Odds If TB wins
NO 7.68% NO 2.40% NO 0.13%
TB 44.24% TB 70.72% TB 81.06%

>>

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

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