2016 NFL – Week 15

We’ve enjoyed the continued success NFL Oracle has had in predicting the outcome of NFL games, but we guess regression was bound to happen at some point. Week 14 marked the first time since Week 9 that NFL Oracle did not finish the week above .500 in correctly picking games. From weeks 10-13, NFL Oracle experienced a relative hot streak, going 40-19 (0.678) during that stretch. However, this week NFL Oracle went an average 8-8. To be fair, 6 of those 8 incorrect picks were for games with confidence levels in the 50th percentile. The other two were between the (5) Seattle Seahawks vs. the (17) Green Bay Packers and the (1) Dallas Cowboys vs. the (8) New York Giants. It’s also worth noting that, after the Giants win on Sunday, they are the only team to have beaten the Cowboys this year, and they’ve done it both times the two teams have met up.

On to last week’s impact game: the (7) Denver Broncos in Nashville to take on the (20) Tennessee Titans. If you’re an NFL team that does not belong to the AFC South and aren’t the Denver Broncos, then you’ll be happy that Tennessee pulled out a 13-10 victory over Denver. By itself, this game helped raise the playoff odds for the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and, of coure, the Tennessee Titans. Too bad the Bills and Ravens blew a golden opportnuity to take advantage of this, as both teams lost their respective match-ups.

As for the AFC South contenders in the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts (our swing game of the week), the Titans did neither team any favors by winning. That being said, because the Texans and Colts entered their match-up tied at 6-6 overall, one team was bound to see an increase in their playoff odds, while it was inevitable one team would see their playoff odds all but wither away. With the Texans narrow victory over the Colts, the Texans and Titans moved to 7-6 while the Colts fell to 6-7. Houston has the tie-breaker at present, as they are now 4-0 in the division, having previously beaten the Titans. But don’t sleep on the Titans yet; they’ll be playing host to the Texans for the last week of the regular season, which likely will determine the outcome of this division. For now, though, the Texans can sit somewhat comfortable with their 62.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Our other swing game was the (24) New Orleans Saints vs. the (10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As anticipated, the higher-seeded Bucs won this match-up, raising their playoff odds from 71% to 81%. Unfortunately for the Saints, this meant that they likely will not “geaux” to the playoffs, as they now have less than a 1% chance of making it.

Here’s a more in-depth look at the week 14 results:

[50.07%]: (2) Oakland Raiders 13 @ (4) Kansas City Chiefs 21
[56.48%]: (11) Pittsburgh Steelers 27 @ (19) Buffalo Bills 20
[55.31%]: (22) Arizona Cardinals 23 @ (14) Miami Dolphins 26
[54.63%]: (15) Houston Texans 22 @ (18) Indianapolis Colts 17
[58.49%]: (7) Denver Broncos 10 @ (20) Tennessee Titans 13
[54.84%]: (12) Washington Redskins 27 @ (23) Philadelphia Eagles 22
[56.86%]: (21) San Diego Chargers 16 @ (27) Carolina Panthers 28
[60.24%]: (28) Chicago Bears 17 @ (6) Detroit Lions 20
[73.75%]: (13) Minnesota Vikings 25 @ (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 16
[76.04%]: (26) Cincinnati Bengals 23 @ (32) Cleveland Browns 10
[51.18%]: (29) New York Jets 23 @ (31) San Francisco 49ers 17
[66.68%]: (9) Atlanta Falcons 42 @ (25) Los Angeles Rams 14
[60.28%]: (5) Seattle Seahawks 10 @ (17) Green Bay Packers 38
[56.83%]: (24) New Orleans Saints 11 @ (10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
[62.69%]: (1) Dallas Cowboys 7 @ (8) New York Giants 10
[60.70%]: (16) Baltimore Ravens 23 @ (3) New England Patriots 30

For comparison purposes, this is how various computer models did in predicting each game during the week. The first column (Win %) simply predicts the winner according to which team has the better record. As you can see, the PageRank model performed the best this week, while NFL Oracle – usually a strong performer compared to other models – finished with the second worst record for the week (we prefer to say NFL Oracle had the 6th best record).

Win % Massey Colley Biased Voter Keener PageRank NFL Oracle
OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK KC OAK
PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
MIA ARI MIA MIA ARI ARI ARI
IND IND HOU HOU HOU HOU IND
DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN
WAS PHI WAS WAS WAS WAS PHI
SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
DET DET DET DET DET DET DET
MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN
CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN
NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ
ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA
TB NO TB TB TB TB TB
DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL NYG DAL
NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
10-6 7-9 11-5 11-5 10-6 12-4 8-8

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 15

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 15

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 12.9 100.0% 96.2% 94.9% 21.8%
2 KC 2 11.9 99.8% 66.7% 64.8% 8.3%
3 NE 13.0 99.9% 99.0% 99.0% 27.3%
4 OAK 2 11.9 99.7% 33.1% 32.8% 5.0%
5 NYG 3 10.4 74.8% 3.8% 3.3% 1.6%
6 DET 10.0 72.2% 61.8% 18.4% 1.6%
7 SEA 2 10.4 98.1% 98.1% 46.5% 8.5%
8 ATL 1 10.0 83.5% 65.1% 24.6% 8.4%
9 PIT 2 9.9 84.1% 78.0% 2.2% 8.0%
10 TB 9.7 65.6% 34.9% 10.2% 2.7%
11 DEN 4 9.1 35.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
12 WAS 9.5 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
13 GB 4 9.0 40.7% 34.1% 1.9% 1.2%
14 HOU 1 8.6 62.7% 61.0% 0.0% 1.0%
15 MIN 2 8.7 13.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.4%
16 MIA 2 9.4 39.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7%
17 TEN 3 8.7 41.3% 35.8% 0.0% 0.7%
18 BAL 2 8.4 29.1% 21.7% 0.0% 0.6%
19 IND 1 7.4 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1%
20 BUF 1 7.9 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
21 SD 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 7.1 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1%
23 PHI 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 NO 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 CIN 1 6.5 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CAR 1 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 LA 2 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 1 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 CHI 1 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 2.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 15

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(11-2-0)--
2Kansas City Chiefs(10-3-0) 2
3New England Patriots(11-2-0)--
4Oakland Raiders(10-3-0) 2
5New York Giants(9-4-0) 3
6Detroit Lions(9-4-0)--
7Seattle Seahawks(8-4-1) 2
8Atlanta Falcons(8-5-0) 1
9Pittsburgh Steelers(8-5-0) 2
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers(8-5-0)--
11Denver Broncos(8-5-0) 4
12Washington Redskins(7-5-1)--
13Green Bay Packers(7-6-0) 4
14Houston Texans(7-6-0) 1
15Minnesota Vikings(7-6-0) 2
16Miami Dolphins(8-5-0) 2
17Tennessee Titans(7-6-0) 3
18Baltimore Ravens(7-6-0) 2
19Indianapolis Colts(6-7-0) 1
20Buffalo Bills(6-7-0) 1
21San Diego Chargers(5-8-0)--
22Arizona Cardinals(5-7-1)--
23Philadelphia Eagles(5-8-0)--
24New Orleans Saints(5-8-0)--
25Cincinnati Bengals(5-7-1) 1
26Carolina Panthers(5-8-0) 1
27Los Angeles Rams(4-9-0) 2
28New York Jets(4-9-0) 1
29Chicago Bears(3-10-0) 1
30Jacksonville Jaguars(2-11-0)--
31San Francisco 49ers(1-12-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(0-13-0)--

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 15

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Dec 15 2016(27) LA @ (7) SEA(7) SEA69.17%
Sat Dec 17 2016(16) MIA @ (28) NYJ(16) MIA62.59%
Sun Dec 18 2016(30) JAC @ (14) HOU(14) HOU70.75%
Sun Dec 18 2016(17) TEN @ (2) KC(2) KC58.69%
Sun Dec 18 2016(6) DET @ (5) NYG(5) NYG51.20%
Sun Dec 18 2016(32) CLE @ (20) BUF(20) BUF81.38%
Sun Dec 18 2016(13) GB @ (29) CHI(13) GB65.75%
Sun Dec 18 2016(19) IND @ (15) MIN(15) MIN53.20%
Sun Dec 18 2016(10) TB @ (1) DAL(1) DAL56.17%
Sun Dec 18 2016(23) PHI @ (18) BAL(23) PHI51.38%
Sun Dec 18 2016(31) SF @ (8) ATL(8) ATL75.14%
Sun Dec 18 2016(24) NO @ (22) ARI(22) ARI55.29%
Sun Dec 18 2016(4) OAK @ (21) SD(4) OAK58.51%
Sun Dec 18 2016(3) NE @ (11) DEN(3) NE59.16%
Sun Dec 18 2016(9) PIT @ (25) CIN(9) PIT64.57%
Mon Dec 19 2016(26) CAR @ (12) WAS(12) WAS57.10%

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

Impact game of the Week: CAR @ WAS
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds across the largest number of teams.

If CAR wins If WAS wins
NYG 81.67% NYG 73.23%
WAS 17.29% WAS 53.90%
GB 34.74% GB 30.05%
MIN 16.96% MIN 12.63%
ATL 93.36% ATL 87.89%
TB 73.09% TB 63.11%

Who would’ve thought the Carolina Panthers (who have a 0% chance of making the playoffs) would be involved in our impact game of the week. However, just because their season will end after week 17 doesn’t mean they can’t play spoiler for other teams. In this case, they could essentially eliminate the Washington Redskins from playoff contention by beating them. Consequently, a Redskins-loss would help the NFC East-rival New York Giants, who would see their playoff chances increase by nearly 10%. Other near-locks for the playoffs, if Carolina upsets Washington, would be the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s obviously not guaranteed, but it would significantly help those two teams’ chances. Honestly, the only team that wants Washington to win is Washington, so, if we’re considering the greater good, the Redskins would do the greatest good by just losing to the Panthers – just saying.

Swing games of the Week:
These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

If TB wins Curr. Odds If DAL wins
TB 88.40% TB 65.84% TB 51.67%
DAL 100.00% DAL 100.00% DAL 100.00%

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

If DET wins Curr. Odds If NYG wins
DET 97.19% DET 72.21% DET 65.67%
NYG 59.20% NYG 74.63% NYG 92.91%

>>

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

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