2016 NFL – Week 17

It was definitely an exciting week of NFL football. Maybe it was because it was a week full of holidays, adding an element of cheer to all of the games. Maybe it was because there was so much riding on many of these games, in terms of playoff odds. Who knows, but what we do know is that is was exciting.

The NFL Oracle went 9-7 during Week 16, which isn’t the most remarkable performance we’ve seen, but it seemed to be heavily influenced by the tight match-ups, with a dash of upset added to the recipe as well. Five of the seven incorrect picks were for match-ups with confidence levels in the 50th percentile, and all five of those games were determined by less than a touchdown. So can we forgive NFL Oracle for those incorrect picks and say it could have gone 14-2 this week? Good. Now, the other two incorrect picks were for games with confidence levels in the 70th percentile, meaning that NFL Oracle was confident the Tennessee Titans would beat the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars and that the San Diego Chargers could beat the win-less Cleveland Browns. Regarding the Titans, their young star quarterback in Marcus Mariota suffered a fractured fibula during the game. This may not excuse the loss by 21 points, so we’ll say NFL Oracle was simply incorrect on this game. Then there’s the Chargers and Browns. With minutes left in the game, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers threw an interception, hurting his team’s chances of scoring late to pull off the win. After recovering the ball, the San Diego kicker missed a field goal with seconds left, sealing the first win of the season for the Browns. Who would’ve thought Cleveland could actually win a game; their fans were aware of how rare this experience was, so they celebrated like their team had just won the Super Bowl. But, we’re here to crush those dreams and say that Cleveland definitely should have lost that game, so is it safe to say NFL Oracle could have realistically gone 15-1 this week, instead of 9-7?

As for the impact game of the week, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills certainly made it an interesting game. The Dolphins defied the odds and beat the Bills by a field goal, keeping their playoff hopes alive at 90% thanks to the win. Unfortunately for Buffalo, this game officially eliminated them from playoff contention, and head coach Rex Ryan, as well as his brother, the defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan, lost their jobs as a result. Not too many other people were happy about this outcome, either. The Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, and Pittsburgh Steelers all saw their playoff odds drop, with the Steelers holding the best chance of still making the playoffs with one week left in the regular season.

Here is a more in-depth look at how we did predicting each game:

[50.16%]: (5) New York Giants 19 @ (25) Philadelphia Eagles 24
[76.87%]: (28) New York Jets 3 @ (2) New England Patriots 41
[53.00%]: (17) Minnesota Vikings 25 @ (11) Green Bay Packers 38
[73.32%]: (13) Tennessee Titans 17 @ (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 38
[62.48%]: (16) Washington Redskins 41 @ (29) Chicago Bears 21
[76.86%]: (23) San Diego Chargers 17 @ (32) Cleveland Browns 20
[53.08%]: (15) Miami Dolphins 34 @ (20) Buffalo Bills 31
[64.50%]: (7) Atlanta Falcons 33 @ (22) Carolina Panthers 16
[51.96%]: (19) Indianapolis Colts 25 @ (3) Oakland Raiders 33
[55.94%]: (10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 @ (21) New Orleans Saints 31
[59.79%]: (24) Arizona Cardinals 34 @ (6) Seattle Seahawks 31
[55.87%]: (31) San Francisco 49ers 22 @ (27) Los Angeles Rams 21
[51.33%]: (26) Cincinnati Bengals 10 @ (12) Houston Texans 12
[58.73%]: (18) Baltimore Ravens 27 @ (8) Pittsburgh Steelers 31
[53.24%]: (14) Denver Broncos 10 @ (4) Kansas City Chiefs 33
[62.70%]: (9) Detroit Lions 21 @ (1) Dallas Cowboys 42

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 17

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

NFL Oracle PostSeason Chances – Week 17

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 13.7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 22.2%
2 NE 13.7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 27.5%
3 OAK 12.6 100.0% 77.2% 77.2% 6.1%
4 KC 11.6 100.0% 22.8% 22.8% 6.5%
5 NYG 10.3 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%
6 ATL 1 10.7 100.0% 100.0% 73.1% 13.8%
7 PIT 1 10.7 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8.2%
8 SEA 2 10.1 100.0% 100.0% 22.7% 5.5%
9 GB 2 9.6 77.2% 65.0% 0.0% 2.5%
10 MIA 5 10.3 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
11 HOU 1 9.3 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.6%
12 DET 3 9.4 57.5% 35.0% 4.2% 1.0%
13 WAS 3 9.2 65.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%
14 TB 4 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 TEN 2 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 DEN 2 8.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 MIN 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 BAL 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 IND 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 NO 1 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 BUF 1 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 ARI 2 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 PHI 2 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 CAR 2 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 SD 2 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CIN 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 LA 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 JAC 1 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 CHI 1 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 2.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 1.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 17

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(13-2-0)--
2New England Patriots(13-2-0)--
3Oakland Raiders(12-3-0)--
4Kansas City Chiefs(11-4-0)--
5New York Giants(10-5-0)--
6Atlanta Falcons(10-5-0) 1
7Pittsburgh Steelers(10-5-0) 1
8Seattle Seahawks(9-5-1) 2
9Green Bay Packers(9-6-0) 2
10Miami Dolphins(10-5-0) 5
11Houston Texans(9-6-0) 1
12Detroit Lions(9-6-0) 3
13Washington Redskins(8-6-1) 3
14Tampa Bay Buccaneers(8-7-0) 4
15Tennessee Titans(8-7-0) 2
16Denver Broncos(8-7-0) 2
17Minnesota Vikings(7-8-0)--
18Baltimore Ravens(8-7-0)--
19Indianapolis Colts(7-8-0)--
20New Orleans Saints(7-8-0) 1
21Buffalo Bills(7-8-0) 1
22Arizona Cardinals(6-8-1) 2
23Philadelphia Eagles(6-9-0) 2
24Carolina Panthers(6-9-0) 2
25San Diego Chargers(5-10-0) 2
26Cincinnati Bengals(5-9-1)--
27Los Angeles Rams(4-11-0)--
28New York Jets(4-11-0)--
29Jacksonville Jaguars(3-12-0) 1
30Chicago Bears(3-12-0) 1
31San Francisco 49ers(2-13-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(1-14-0)--

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 17

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Sun Jan 01 2017(2) NE @ (10) MIA(2) NE64.73%
Sun Jan 01 2017(5) NYG @ (13) WAS(13) WAS50.95%
Sun Jan 01 2017(11) HOU @ (15) TEN(15) TEN52.36%
Sun Jan 01 2017(29) JAC @ (19) IND(19) IND67.16%
Sun Jan 01 2017(18) BAL @ (26) CIN(18) BAL56.97%
Sun Jan 01 2017(21) BUF @ (28) NYJ(21) BUF68.48%
Sun Jan 01 2017(1) DAL @ (23) PHI(1) DAL59.88%
Sun Jan 01 2017(20) NO @ (6) ATL(6) ATL62.67%
Sun Jan 01 2017(24) CAR @ (14) TB(14) TB57.22%
Sun Jan 01 2017(30) CHI @ (17) MIN(17) MIN63.93%
Sun Jan 01 2017(32) CLE @ (7) PIT(7) PIT83.21%
Sun Jan 01 2017(9) GB @ (12) DET(9) GB58.20%
Sun Jan 01 2017(22) ARI @ (27) LA(22) ARI64.93%
Sun Jan 01 2017(3) OAK @ (16) DEN(3) OAK53.66%
Sun Jan 01 2017(8) SEA @ (31) SF(8) SEA74.77%
Sun Jan 01 2017(4) KC @ (25) SD(4) KC64.05%

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

Impact game of the Week: NYG @ WAS
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds acorss the largest number of teams.

If NYG wins If WAS wins
WAS 0.00% WAS 100.00%
DET 100.00% DET 38.88%
GB 100.00% GB 61.12%

Pretty simple. The New York Giants have already clinched a playoff spot, so this game is technically meaningless to them, unless they want to play spoiler. If the Giants win, then the marquee match-up between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers – a game to determine the NFC North Champions – won’t actually effect the playoff chances of either team. On the other hand, a Giants loss would put the fate of the two NFC North teams in their own hands. Likewise, the Washington Redskins can clinch a playoff spot by beating the Giants, but a loss would spell doom for their season.

Swing games of the Week:
This is the the game where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

If GB wins Curr. Odds If DET wins
GB 100.00% GB 77.20% GB 48.86%
DET 48.80% DET 57.45% DET 100.00%

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

Do you think you can pick NFL games better than the NFL Oracle?

See how you do in the NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge

This entry was posted in NFL. Bookmark the permalink.