2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 11

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 11 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  Oklahoma Washington State

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

NCAAF Oracle – Week 11

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Georgia(9-0)--
2Alabama(9-0)--
3Clemson(8-1) 1
4Wisconsin(9-0) 1
5Notre Dame(8-1) 1
6Southern California(8-2) 3
7Central Florida(8-0) 3
8Washington State(8-2) 4
9Texas Christian(8-1) 4
10Miami FL_(8-0) 4
11Oklahoma(8-1) 5
12San Diego State(8-2) 4
13Memphis(8-1) 2
14Washington(8-1) 1
15Penn State(7-2) 10
16Michigan State(7-2) 6
17Ohio State(7-2) 10
18Toledo(8-1) 5
19Boise State(7-2)--
20Auburn(7-2) 14
21Mississippi State(7-2)--
22South Florida(8-1) 6
23Iowa(6-3) 12
24Michigan(7-2) 9
25Troy(7-2) 6
26Oklahoma State(7-2) 9
27Virginia Tech(7-2) 7
28Iowa State(6-3) 10
29Northwestern(6-3) 12
30Houston(6-3) 6
31South Carolina(6-3) 6
32North Carolina State(6-3) 8
33Louisiana State(6-3) 6
34Florida Atlantic(6-3) 15
35Arizona(6-3) 9
36Army(7-2) 10
37Kentucky(6-3) 8
38North Texas(6-3) 6
39Virginia(6-3) 11
40Southern Methodist(6-3) 8
41Stanford(6-3) 11
42Ohio(7-2) 5
43Arizona State(5-4) 13
44Boston College(5-4) 7
45Wyoming(6-3) 10
46Florida International(6-2) 8
47West Virginia(6-3) 17
48Northern Illinois(6-3) 10
49Fresno State(6-3) 2
50Marshall(6-3) 11
51Oregon(5-5) 9
52Wake Forest(5-4) 12
53Alabama-Birmingham(6-3) 1
54Texas A&M(5-4) 11
55Colorado State(6-4) 10
56Navy(5-3) 8
57California(5-5) 11
58Central Michigan(5-4) 18
59Utah(5-4) 16
60Syracuse(4-5) 2
61Colorado(5-5) 8
62Louisville(5-4)--
63Western Michigan(5-4) 3
64Southern Mississippi(5-4) 7
65Akron(5-4) 6
66Utah State(5-5) 14
67Appalachian State(5-4) 4
68UCLA(4-5) 7
69Arkansas State(5-2) 4
70Kansas State(5-4) 16
71Mississippi(4-5) 21
72Texas Tech(4-5) 6
73Georgia State(5-3) 9
74Nebraska(4-5) 7
75Purdue(4-5) 9
76Western Kentucky(5-4) 6
77Tennessee(4-5) 13
78Vanderbilt(4-5) 20
79Pittsburgh(4-5) 7
80Middle Tennessee State(4-5) 5
81Georgia Tech(4-4) 10
82Maryland(4-5) 13
83Texas(4-5) 10
84Rutgers(4-5) 11
85Missouri(4-5) 9
86Air Force(4-5) 12
87Nevada-Las Vegas(4-5) 4
88Temple(4-5) 15
89Texas-San Antonio(5-3) 11
90Louisiana-Monroe(4-5) 14
91Duke(4-5) 10
92Arkansas(4-5) 4
93Louisiana Tech(4-5) 16
94Louisiana-Lafayette(4-4) 7
95Minnesota(4-5) 16
96Florida(3-5) 13
97Florida State(3-5) 11
98South Alabama(3-6) 11
99New Mexico State(4-5) 8
100Buffalo(3-6) 12
101Tulane(3-6) 12
102Idaho(3-6) 9
103Miami OH_(3-6) 6
104Connecticut(3-6) 4
105Indiana(3-6) 3
106New Mexico(3-6) 7
107Eastern Michigan(3-6) 7
108Cincinnati(3-6) 8
109Old Dominion(3-6) 6
110Hawaii(3-6) 5
111Tulsa(2-8) 5
112Ball State(2-7) 2
113Kent State(2-7) 4
114Illinois(2-7) 3
115Bowling Green State(2-7) 7
116Massachusetts(2-7) 4
117East Carolina(2-7) 4
118Texas State(2-7) 1
119Brigham Young(2-8) 1
120Charlotte(1-8) 1
121North Carolina(1-8) 5
122Nevada(1-8) 1
123San Jose State(1-9) 1
124Kansas(1-8) 1
125Coastal Carolina(1-8) 2
126Oregon State(1-8)--
127Baylor(1-8) 4
128Rice(1-8) 2
129Georgia Southern(0-8)--
130Texas-El Paso(0-9)--

The table above allows you to see how different teams are trending after their Week 10 performances. While the top-2 ranks remained unchanged, the same cannot be said for most of the other top teams. Within the range starting at (5) Notre Dame and extending to (11) Oklahoma, all teams experienced positive trends. However, our biggest positive trends belong to (20) Auburn and (23) Iowa, (+14) and (+12) respectively. For one to rise, another must fall, as was the case for both (15) Penn State and (17) Ohio State, each dropping (-10) to make way for the Tigers and Hawkeyes. It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t long ago that we were discussing (15) Penn State and (17) Ohio State as being in prime position to contest the top ranking, but that’s what makes sports so compelling: it’s not the best team that wins, but the team that plays the best on any given day.

NCAAF Oracle: Poll prediction feature for Week 11

The current top 20 teams are listed in the columns below. In the rows, we indicate the chances each team has to be ranked in that column by the end of the week.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Georgia 52% 14% 18% 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Alabama 26% 26% 12% 17% 11% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Clemson 3% 12% 18% 13% 6% 9% 15% 13% 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Wisconsin 7% 20% 18% 5% 1% 4% 11% 15% 12% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Notre Dame 11% 23% 14% 2% 0% 0% 3% 9% 15% 14% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Southern California 0% 0% 1% 8% 17% 16% 7% 3% 5% 10% 11% 10% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Central Florida 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 12% 17% 12% 5% 5% 11% 14% 11% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 16% 13% 6% 2% 3% 8% 11% 11% 9% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
9 Texas Christian 0% 0% 3% 16% 20% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 12% 12% 8% 4% 1% 0% 0%
10 Miami FL_ 0% 5% 15% 16% 9% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 11% 12% 9% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0%
11 Oklahoma 0% 0% 0% 6% 15% 16% 9% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 11% 10% 8% 4% 2%
12 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 11% 16% 20% 19% 14% 8%
13 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 18% 22% 20% 14% 7%
14 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 6% 11% 13% 10% 5% 2% 1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 9% 8% 6% 4%
15 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 15% 13% 6% 2% 0% 1% 3% 8% 12% 12% 9%
16 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 8% 13%
17 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 9% 15% 14% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 8%
18 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 9% 15% 14% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5%
19 Boise State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9% 5% 2% 0% 0%
20 Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 10% 13% 11% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

There’s been a scale-back with regards to the number of teams that have the opportunity to claim the (1) rank; in order of most favorable odds, (1) Georgia is more likely than not to retain the top-rank, then (2) Alabama, (5) Notre Dame, (4) Wisconsin, and (3) Clemson. While it isn’t likely we’ll see a new (1) team a week from now, (1) Georgia could lose to the surging (20) Auburn that we mentioned earlier. Should this game result in an upset, the Bulldogs could drop down to (5) while the Tigers could continue trending in the right direction, taking baby-steps all the way up to (9) if they are lucky. Turning our attention to the rest of the top-5 teams, take a look at the Week 11 match-ups:

(2) Alabama @ (21) Mississippi State

(3) Clemson vs. (97) Florida State

(4) Wisconsin vs. (23) Iowa

(5) Notre Dame @ (10) Miami FL

By no means is (21) Mississippi State a bad team, but with as good as (2) Alabama is, they are projected to win this game, which would almost certainly lock them in at one of those top-2 rankings. A loss, on the other hand, could see the Crimson Tide backpedal to (7).

(3) Clemson has, on paper, the easiest match-up this week, which helps explain why there’s potential for them to end up in any number of rankings, from (1) all the way through to (11). Even with a win, which is borderline expected, (3) Clemson could still lose ground in the rankings, as Oracle rewards teams for wins on the road, against top-tier teams, and when the wins are convincing. That’s where things favor (4) Wisconsin and (5) Notre Dame. Basic logic would suggest that, because there is a smaller discrepancy in ranking between each team in these two games, it will be more challenging to win, let alone by a substantial margin. However, that same logic suggests that, should (4) Wisconsin and/or (5) Notre Dame win, they will be rewarded more for emerging victorious in a tougher match-up, again on paper. The Fighting Irish also have the potential advantage of playing on the road, which could help them jump into the top-3 with a win.

All that being said, a loss for either (4) Wisconsin or (5) Notre Dame would significantly hurt their trends. Worst case scenario, a loss would turn (4) Wisconsin and (5) Notre Dame into (11) and (12) ranked teams, respectively. Keep in mind this would require everything to go wrong from the perspective of these teams; there is also the potential for the Badgers and Fighting Irish to lose and only drop to (6) and (7), still not great, but not as bad as the prior example.

The other big match-up this week is between (9) Texas Christian and (11) Oklahoma. Besides the fact that the outcome of this game could have significant ramifications on the College Football Playoff picture, not to mention the Valero Alamo Bowl projections, this game could do wonders to help either team’s overall ranking. A win for the Horned Frogs would likely move them to (4) or (5), with the potential to get as high as (3), while a loss could move them anywhere from (11) to (18), with (14) or (15) possessing the strongest likelihood. For their part, the Sooners could secure (5) or (6), with a chance for (4) by beating their conference-rival. With a loss, (11) Oklahoma could find themselves fighting to remain in the top-20. For what it’s worth, the Sooners and Horned Frogs bear the same conference record at 5-1, and (9) Texas Christian is as strong on the road as (11) Oklahoma is at home, both sitting at 3-1, so something will have to give this weekend.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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