2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 9

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 09 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  Oklahoma State Southern California

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

For those of you following, there has been some shake-up within the Big 12 and Pac-12 conferences, respectively, that has correspondingly affected the NCAAF Oracle projection for this year’s Valero Alamo Bowl participants. First, let’s give you the updated rankings:

NCAAF Oracle has the Big 12 rankings as follows: (4) Texas Christian, (20) Oklahoma, (21) Oklahoma State, (30) Iowa State, (52) West Virginia, (59) Texas Tech, (82) Texas, (102) Kansas State, (121) Kansas, and (130) Baylor. The only positional changes came with (52) West Virginia leapfrogging (59) Texas Tech, although the top-4 teams all moved up in the overall rankings.

NCAAF Oracle has the Pac-12 rankings as follows: (5) Washington State, (13) Southern California, (19) Washington, (26) Stanford, (39) Arizona, (44) Arizona State, (51) UCLA, (57) Oregon, (58) California, (65) Colorado, (66) Utah, and (124) Oregon State. The big move here is the changing of the guard between (5) Washington State and (13) Southern California, which we will return to momentarily.

(4) Texas Christian has remained resolute atop their conference standings, cushioning their lead with an unforgiving 43-0 domination of (121) Kansas, bringing their record to 7-0 overall and 4-0 in-conference. One week ago, the following three positions in the Big 12 standings appeared neck-and-neck. (20) Oklahoma, who had been the Oracle projection in Week 8, squeezed out a narrow win over (102) Kansas State, but so did (30) Iowa State and (21) Oklahoma State. Remove (30) Iowa State from consideration for the moment, as they are one game back of the two Oklahoma programs in terms of overall record. The difference-maker in determining why (21) Oklahoma State usurped (20) Oklahoma as the Valero Alamo Bowl Big 12 projection may be the fact that the prior is one game better than the latter on the road, something that should not be taken lightly.

Heading into Week 8, we knew (13) Southern California vs. (8) Notre Dame would prove to be a tall order for either team. As always, there’s good and bad news. Unlike last week, we’ll start with the bad news first. (8) Notre Dame pummeled (13) Southern California 49-14, justifying the positional changes for the victor (+14) and for the loser (-9). The good news that comes as a result of this, combined with the bye week for (19) Washington and the unrelenting surge of (5) Washington State, (13) Southern California is actually poised to represent the Pac-12 in the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Trojans are 5-0 at home and 6-2 overall, and they have a slightly favorable match-up against (44) Arizona State late on Saturday night. With other intriguing conference rivalries taking place this week for (5) Washington State vs. (39) Arizona and (19) Washington vs. (51) UCLA, don’t be surprised to see further movement within the Pac-12 standings that could keep (13) Southern California well-positioned for the Valero Alamo Bowl.

Should these two teams in (21) Oklahoma State and (13) Southern California make the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl, one team would have a distinct advantage as far as familiarity with the San Antonio stage. Going back to 1997, Oklahoma State has appeared in this Bowl Game on four occasions, amassing a 2-2 record. Most recently, the Cowboys handled Colorado 38-8 in last year’s shootout. Meanwhile, the Valero Alamo Bowl would present a new challenge and experience for (13) Southern California, having never participated in this Bowl Game specifically, although the storied program has had its fair share of success in other Bowl Games.

NCAAF Oracle – Week 09

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Alabama(8-0)--
2Georgia(7-0)--
3Penn State(7-0) 3
4Texas Christian(7-0) 1
5Washington State(7-1) 3
6Wisconsin(7-0) 6
7Clemson(6-1) 4
8Notre Dame(6-1) 14
9Central Florida(6-0) 8
10Michigan State(6-1) 3
11Memphis(6-1) 4
12San Diego State(6-2) 5
13Southern California(6-2) 9
14Miami FL_(6-0) 2
15North Carolina State(6-1) 6
16Louisiana State(6-2) 4
17South Florida(7-0) 4
18Ohio State(6-1) 8
19Washington(6-1) 8
20Oklahoma(6-1) 6
21Oklahoma State(6-1) 8
22Virginia Tech(6-1) 6
23Auburn(6-2) 8
24Boise State(5-2) 8
25Toledo(6-1) 8
26Stanford(5-2) 12
27Marshall(6-1) 13
28South Carolina(5-2) 9
29Colorado State(6-2) 9
30Iowa State(5-2) 13
31Troy(5-2) 6
32Texas A&M(5-2) 14
33Mississippi State(5-2) 15
34Kentucky(5-2) 9
35Army(6-2) 4
36Southern Methodist(5-2) 8
37Michigan(5-2) 14
38Virginia(5-2) 14
39Arizona(5-2) 11
40Ohio(6-2) 7
41Navy(5-2) 14
42Fresno State(5-2) 20
43Boston College(4-4) 24
44Arizona State(4-3) 15
45Louisville(5-3) 8
46Southern Mississippi(5-2) 15
47Iowa(4-3) 17
48Western Michigan(5-3) 3
49Northern Illinois(5-2)--
50Syracuse(4-4) 15
51UCLA(4-3) 14
52West Virginia(5-2)--
53North Texas(4-3) 19
54Wake Forest(4-3) 8
55Appalachian State(5-2) 5
56Houston(4-3) 15
57Oregon(4-4) 21
58California(4-4) 16
59Texas Tech(4-3) 14
60Western Kentucky(5-2) 9
61Florida Atlantic(4-3) 21
62Northwestern(4-3) 22
63Georgia Tech(4-2) 26
64Central Michigan(4-4) 15
65Colorado(4-4) 8
66Utah(4-3) 10
67Minnesota(4-3) 13
68Wyoming(4-3) 10
69Akron(4-4) 15
70Alabama-Birmingham(4-3) 15
71Florida International(4-2) 7
72Duke(4-4) 6
73Utah State(4-4) 15
74Florida(3-3) 11
75Purdue(3-4) 4
76Arkansas State(4-2) 20
77Louisiana Tech(3-4) 2
78Middle Tennessee State(3-5) 10
79Nebraska(3-4) 5
80Maryland(3-4) 10
81South Alabama(3-4) 20
82Texas(3-4) 9
83Tulane(3-4) 11
84Texas-San Antonio(4-2) 13
85Mississippi(3-4) 7
86Buffalo(3-5) 9
87Rutgers(3-4) 16
88Tennessee(3-4) 3
89Miami OH_(3-5) 18
90Indiana(3-4) 14
91Connecticut(3-4) 15
92Vanderbilt(3-4) 11
93Pittsburgh(3-5) 18
94New Mexico(3-4) 11
95Louisiana-Lafayette(3-4) 9
96Air Force(3-4) 12
97Louisiana-Monroe(3-4) 10
98Georgia State(3-3) 8
99Temple(3-5) 6
100Hawaii(3-4) 5
101New Mexico State(3-4) 10
102Kansas State(3-4) 4
103Florida State(2-4) 11
104Tulsa(2-6) 10
105Illinois(2-5) 6
106Kent State(2-6) 4
107Ball State(2-5) 7
108Idaho(2-5) 3
109Arkansas(2-5) 5
110Eastern Michigan(2-5) 2
111Missouri(2-5) 12
112Cincinnati(2-6) 2
113East Carolina(2-6) 3
114Nevada-Las Vegas(2-5) 5
115Old Dominion(2-5) 2
116Charlotte(1-7) 19
117Bowling Green State(1-7) 1
118Nevada(1-7) 4
119San Jose State(1-7)--
120Texas State(1-6)--
121Kansas(1-6)--
122North Carolina(1-7) 6
123Brigham Young(1-7) 2
124Oregon State(1-6) 2
125Coastal Carolina(1-6) 1
126Massachusetts(1-6) 6
127Rice(1-6) 2
128Georgia Southern(0-6) 1
129Texas-El Paso(0-7) 1
130Baylor(0-7) 1

The table above allows you to see how different teams are trending after their Week 8 performances. Within the top-10, (8) Notre Dame was the biggest positive mover (+14) thanks to that blowout against (13) Southern California. The biggest negative move ended up being (7) Clemson (-4) through no fault of their own, but rather because of their bye week. Interestingly, with exception to (7) Clemson and the top-2 teams, all of the top-10 teams experienced a positive trend in the rankings.

NCAAF Oracle: Poll prediction feature for Week 9

The current top 20 teams are listed in the columns below. In the rows, we indicate the chances each team has to be ranked in that column by the end of the week.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Alabama 33% 44% 19% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Georgia 20% 20% 9% 7% 11% 13% 11% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Penn State 42% 7% 3% 4% 7% 10% 11% 9% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Texas Christian 3% 14% 21% 11% 1% 1% 4% 10% 13% 12% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Washington State 1% 9% 19% 15% 5% 1% 2% 6% 11% 13% 10% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Wisconsin 0% 2% 8% 15% 14% 9% 5% 6% 9% 10% 9% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Clemson 0% 2% 10% 17% 14% 6% 1% 0% 2% 7% 11% 13% 10% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Notre Dame 0% 1% 5% 12% 15% 11% 5% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 8% 9% 8% 7% 4% 3% 1%
9 Central Florida 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 16% 18% 17% 13% 9% 5% 3%
10 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 8% 13% 13% 8% 4% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 3%
11 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9% 5% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
12 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 6% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
13 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 10% 14% 12% 6% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 7% 6% 4%
14 Miami FL_ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 7% 10% 11% 11% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3%
15 North Carolina State 0% 0% 3% 9% 14% 13% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5%
16 Louisiana State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 6%
17 South Florida 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 9%
18 Ohio State 0% 0% 2% 5% 10% 13% 11% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
19 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 11% 12% 8% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
20 Oklahoma 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 12% 11% 8% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Taking a look at this table, you can see that there is a 95% chance the top-rank will belong to one of the currently-ranked top-3 teams. But look closer. (3) Penn State, set to square off with (18) Ohio State, has the strongest odds of taking the throne, with (1) Alabama and (2) Georgia having the next best odds, in that order. I guess the only way to remove Nick Saban from the top of the deck is to wait for (1) Alabama to have a bye week, because it certainly has seemed impossible to do so whenever they’ve taken the field.

Some of the highest potential for movement comes from (13) Southern California, (15) North Carolina State, and (18) Ohio State. (13) Southern California could end as high as (4) with a win, or as low as (20) with a loss. However, what is most likely is a finish between (6) and (8) with a win, as there is a 36% chance of them falling within that range. A loss on the other hand, and (13) Southern California will put their fate in the hands of other teams, explaining the fact that there is a wide array of possible rankings, with none particularly standing out in terms of likelihood. (15) North Carolina State could stamp their ticket into the top-10 with a win over (8) Notre Dame, a 36% chance they would land somewhere between (4) and (6). Unfortunately for them, (15) North Carolina State will have their hands full trying to stop a red-hot (8) Notre Dame team, so the same rules apply to them as does (13) Southern California should they lose. Then there is (18) Ohio State, preparing to clash with the revitalized (3) Penn State Nittany Lions. As of October 24, (3) Penn State running back Saquon Barkley was the hands-down favorite to win the Heisman, and you can be sure he and his team will be hungry to silence the Buckeyes in attempt to claim the (1) ranking. Doing so would likely knock (18) Ohio State out of the top-20, with only an unfavorable 10% chance they’d somehow stay within that window. That being said, should (18) Ohio State upset (3) Penn State, they could catapult themselves up to the (3) spot, although there’s only a 2% chance of that happening. Realistically, they would be positioned between (4) and (8), a much-more-likely 45% chance.

Lastly, (16) Louisiana State fans, you may as well as pack your bags now thanks to your team’s bye week, as it’s a near-certainty the Tigers will geaux outside the top-20.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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