2017 NFL Oracle – Week 8

Hopefully you had as much success predicting outcomes as Oracle did, or for that matter any of the other six predictive methods displayed at the end of this post; if yes, then at the bare minimum you were 11-4 for Week 7 of the 2017 NFL season. So, we’ll go ahead and get that dirt off our shoulder at Oracle, and feel free to do the same if you’re feeling like a boss. Now, a look at how teams are trending heading into Week 8 before we try to provide you with an encore of successful Week 8 predictions.

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 08

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Philadelphia Eagles(6-1) 1
2Kansas City Chiefs(5-2) 1
3Minnesota Vikings(5-2)--
4New England Patriots(5-2) 1
5Pittsburgh Steelers(5-2) 1
6New Orleans Saints(4-2) 3
7Los Angeles Rams(5-2) 1
8Carolina Panthers(4-3) 2
9Miami Dolphins(4-2) 4
10Buffalo Bills(4-2)--
11Green Bay Packers(4-3) 4
12Jacksonville Jaguars(4-3) 1
13Tennessee Titans(4-3) 2
14Oakland Raiders(3-4) 10
15Chicago Bears(3-4) 8
16Seattle Seahawks(4-2) 4
17Atlanta Falcons(3-3) 5
18Denver Broncos(3-3) 1
19New York Jets(3-4) 3
20Detroit Lions(3-3) 6
21Los Angeles Chargers(3-4) 7
22Washington Redskins(3-3) 4
23Houston Texans(3-3) 4
24Baltimore Ravens(3-4) 3
25Arizona Cardinals(3-4) 3
26Dallas Cowboys(3-3)--
27Cincinnati Bengals(2-4) 2
28Tampa Bay Buccaneers(2-4) 1
29Indianapolis Colts(2-5)--
30New York Giants(1-6)--
31Cleveland Browns(0-7)--
32San Francisco 49ers(0-7)--

The combination of (2) Kansas City Chiefs losing a nail-biter to (14) Oakland Raiders and the (1) Philadelphia Eagles pulling out an exciting Monday Night Football victory over (23) Washington Redskins has presented us with a new leader, the Eagles soaring above the Chiefs, who still stood their ground and only fell one rank. A byproduct of that nail-biter loss for the Chiefs is that the Raiders became our biggest mover (+10) for Week 8, despite their losing record and the lacking presence of their young star quarterback, Derek Carr.

No one team had such a significant move in the opposite direction, although the (20) Detroit Lions gave it their best shot, free falling (-6) due to the week off along with positive trends by other previously-similarly-ranked teams.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 08

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Oct 26 2017(9) MIA @ (24) BAL(24) BAL56.83%
Sun Oct 29 2017(3) MIN @ (31) CLE(3) MIN84.68%
Sun Oct 29 2017(29) IND @ (27) CIN(27) CIN67.89%
Sun Oct 29 2017(14) OAK @ (10) BUF(14) OAK53.32%
Sun Oct 29 2017(8) CAR @ (28) TB(8) CAR59.50%
Sun Oct 29 2017(17) ATL @ (19) NYJ(19) NYJ50.18%
Sun Oct 29 2017(21) LAC @ (4) NE(4) NE62.08%
Sun Oct 29 2017(32) SF @ (1) PHI(1) PHI84.76%
Sun Oct 29 2017(15) CHI @ (6) NO(6) NO61.70%
Sun Oct 29 2017(23) HOU @ (16) SEA(23) HOU51.34%
Sun Oct 29 2017(26) DAL @ (22) WAS(26) DAL54.37%
Sun Oct 29 2017(5) PIT @ (20) DET(5) PIT62.31%
Mon Oct 30 2017(18) DEN @ (2) KC(2) KC60.92%

Sure-fire picks (give or take)

For Week 7, we gave you two sure-fire picks (give or take), predicting with confidence that (12) Jacksonville Jaguars and (15) Tennessee Titans would take care of business against (29) Indianapolis Colts and (31) Cleveland Browns, respectively. The Jaguars had no trouble making that prediction appear, well, sure-fire, trouncing the division-rival Colts 27-0. The Titans, on the other hand, represented more of the “give or take” component of the equation, requiring overtime to beat the winless Browns by an unconvincing score of 12-9. Keep in mind that the confidence levels when making predictions over the outcomes of games has no direct bearing on what the spread might be, so a win is a win, and the Titans (barely) delivered.

This week, there is one game in particular we want to focus on. It is with 85% certainty that Oracle predicts the Browns to, you guessed it, go another week without earning a win. Such a shocking prediction is aided by the fact that the (3) Minnesota Vikings will be the lucky team heading to Cleveland. Be warned though, one week ago the Browns nearly escaped with a win against the once-believed-to-be dominant Titans.

Flip a coin

There were six NFL games with confidence levels in the 50th percentile last week, but we gave you two specifically to flip a coin on: (6) New Orleans Saints @ (11) Green Bay Packers and (17) Atlanta Falcons @ (4) New England Patriots. Here is where we will pay attention to the score of the each game. Oracle did give the Saints the edge, and they backed that prediction up, beating the Packers 26-17 in Wisconsin, taking advantage of the young back-up starting in place of the injured Aaron Rodgers. As for the Patriots, they also supported the Oracle prediction, besting the Falcons 23-7 in the rematch of last year’s epic Super Bowl.

For week 8, there are once again six NFL games with confidence levels in the 50th percentile. However, we’ll simply select one of these match-ups: (17) Atlanta Falcons @ (19) New York Jets. Who would’ve thought the former NFC Champions, with the former MVP as their quarterback, would only have a 50.18% confidence level over the Jets!?! Upon further evaluation though, you can see that the Jets scored more points in their last game than the Falcons have in their last two games combined. On paper, it seems relatively easy to choose the Falcons over the Jets, but things become slightly less clear with the way Atlanta has played since Week 3.

The NFL Oracle was 11-4 (73.33%) during week 7. Here is how we did predicting each game:

[62.32%]: (1) Kansas City Chiefs 30 @ (24) Oakland Raiders 31
[56.72%]: (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 @ (10) Buffalo Bills 30
[55.30%]: (16) New York Jets 28 @ (13) Miami Dolphins 31
[84.64%]: (11) Jacksonville Jaguars 27 @ (29) Indianapolis Colts 0
[83.08%]: (15) Tennessee Titans 12 @ (31) Cleveland Browns 9
[54.01%]: (21) Baltimore Ravens 16 @ (3) Minnesota Vikings 24
[73.07%]: (22) Arizona Cardinals 0 @ (8) Los Angeles Rams 33
[61.72%]: (6) Carolina Panthers 3 @ (23) Chicago Bears 17
[54.48%]: (9) New Orleans Saints 26 @ (7) Green Bay Packers 17
[74.57%]: (26) Dallas Cowboys 40 @ (32) San Francisco 49ers 10
[66.45%]: (17) Denver Broncos 0 @ (28) Los Angeles Chargers 21
[63.77%]: (25) Cincinnati Bengals 14 @ (4) Pittsburgh Steelers 29
[63.31%]: (20) Seattle Seahawks 24 @ (30) New York Giants 7
[58.94%]: (12) Atlanta Falcons 7 @ (5) New England Patriots 23
[59.68%]: (18) Washington Redskins 24 @ (2) Philadelphia Eagles 34

This article started by praising Oracle for a fine performance during Week 7, but don’t think that will prevent us from breaking down how Oracle could have reasonably done even better. First, the Chiefs were favored over the Raiders with a decent level of confidence, and the game was ultimately decided by just one point. Second, the way the Jets offense has been playing, and the way the Dolphins team has been playing, who would’ve thought back-up quarterback Matt Moore would relieve Jay Cutler and bring his team back for 17 unanswered points? Third, the Panthers had been looking as if they were returning to their Super Bowl-caliber form, but two 75+ yard defensive touchdowns for the Bears allowed rookie Mitchell Trubisky to only attempt seven passes all game and still beat Carolina 17-3. Fourth…we’ve got nothing for the Broncos, y’all just choked. I’ll settle for 14-1.

>> Newsletter_NFL_Comparison

Win % Massey Colley Biased Voter Keener PageRank NFL Oracle
KC KC KC KC KC KC KC
BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF
MIA NYJ MIA MIA NYJ NYJ NYJ
JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC
TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN
MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN
LAR LAR LAR LAR LAR LAR LAR
CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CHI CAR
GB NO NO NO NO NO NO
DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
DEN DEN DEN LAC LAC DEN DEN
PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
SEA SEA SEA SEA NYG SEA SEA
NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI
11-4 11-4 12-3 13-2 11-4 12-3 11-4

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

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