2017 NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

Valero Alamo Bowl Projection:

Projection Week 13 Big 12 Pac-12
NCAAF Oracle  TCU Washington State

We consider the NCAAF Oracle Ranking below to determine which teams would be selected for the Valero Alamo Bowl. Find out more about how the Oracle works and subscribe to our weekly newsletter

Make that four-straight weeks for (12) Washington State as the projected Pac-12 participant in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Sweetening the deal even more, Oracle’s latest projection has (15) Texas Christian representing the Big 12 for back-to-back weeks. Consistency is key! (12) Washington State did not play this past weekend and, if we had to make an educated guess, it seems likely the Cougars were glued to their TVs seeing in-state and Week 13 rival (17) Washington defeat (79) Utah with a 38-yard field goal as time expired, a true moment of redemption for the Huskies kicker after missing an extra-point and field goal earlier in the game. The (17) Washington win just made this Saturday’s match-up all the more interesting: both teams are 6-2 in-conference, 9-2 overall, and are undefeated at home. Something’s got to give. Unlike (12) Washington State, (15) Texas Christian did not have the luxury of sitting at home during Week 12, having to travel across-state to Lubbock in order to take on (80) Texas Tech. That was about the extent of additional effort the Horned Frogs had to expend in comparison to the Cougars, as (15) Texas Christian put up 27 unanswered-points, only allowing a field goal to the Red Raiders in the first quarter. This win provided the long-awaited separation atop the Big 12 standings with regards to in-conference record, keeping (15) Texas Christian a game behind (8) Oklahoma and a game ahead of a handful of other conference opponents. Check out the updated standings for the respective conferences below, based off the Oracle rankings:

Pac-12 North: (12) Washington State, (17) Washington, (22) Stanford, (51) Oregon, (75) California, and (127) Oregon State

Pac-12 South: (6) Southern California, (44) Arizona, (53) Arizona State, (63) UCLA, (79) Utah, and (84) Colorado

Big 12: (8) Oklahoma, (15) Texas Christian, (28) Oklahoma State, (37) Iowa State, (50) West Virginia, (61) Texas, (65) Kansas State, (80) Texas Tech, (126) Kansas, and (128) Baylor

NCAAF Oracle – Week 13

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Alabama(11-0)--
2Wisconsin(11-0)--
3Clemson(10-1)--
4Georgia(10-1)--
5Miami FL_(10-0)--
6Southern California(10-2)--
7Notre Dame(9-2) 3
8Oklahoma(10-1)--
9Central Florida(10-0)--
10Penn State(9-2) 1
11Ohio State(9-2) 1
12Washington State(9-2) 5
13Auburn(9-2)--
14Boise State(9-2)--
15Texas Christian(9-2)--
16Memphis(9-1)--
17Washington(9-2) 1
18San Diego State(9-2) 1
19Michigan State(8-3) 1
20Toledo(9-2) 2
21Florida Atlantic(8-3) 7
22Stanford(8-3) 8
23Mississippi State(8-3) 8
24Louisiana State(8-3) 3
25Northwestern(8-3) 4
26South Carolina(8-3)--
27North Texas(8-3) 11
28Oklahoma State(8-3) 11
29Virginia Tech(8-3) 8
30Michigan(8-3) 9
31South Florida(9-1) 4
32Troy(8-2) 9
33Wake Forest(7-4) 10
34North Carolina State(7-4) 10
35Fresno State(8-3) 10
36Ohio(8-3) 11
37Iowa State(7-4) 2
38Northern Illinois(8-3) 9
39Kentucky(7-4) 7
40Army(8-3) 7
41Texas A&M(7-4) 9
42Iowa(6-5) 8
43Louisville(7-4) 10
44Arizona(7-4) 8
45Boston College(6-5) 9
46Central Michigan(7-4) 6
47Wyoming(7-4) 6
48Marshall(7-4) 8
49Alabama-Birmingham(7-4) 3
50West Virginia(7-4) 8
51Oregon(6-5) 8
52Houston(6-4) 8
53Arizona State(6-5) 3
54Virginia(6-5) 5
55Navy(6-4) 7
56Southern Methodist(6-5) 5
57Southern Mississippi(7-4) 5
58Akron(6-5) 15
59Colorado State(7-5) 4
60Missouri(6-5) 10
61Texas(6-5) 16
62Florida International(6-4) 7
63UCLA(5-6) 5
64Purdue(5-6) 14
65Kansas State(6-5) 15
66Western Michigan(6-5) 9
67Georgia Tech(5-5) 6
68Utah State(6-5) 8
69Mississippi(5-6) 9
70Arkansas State(6-3) 11
71Tulane(5-6) 17
72Georgia State(6-3) 7
73Appalachian State(6-4) 7
74Western Kentucky(6-5) 9
75California(5-6) 11
76Duke(5-6) 18
77Texas-San Antonio(6-4) 21
78Temple(5-6) 9
79Utah(5-6) 12
80Texas Tech(5-6) 12
81Buffalo(5-6) 6
82Syracuse(4-7) 11
83Nevada-Las Vegas(5-6) 8
84Colorado(5-6) 10
85Minnesota(5-6) 13
86Louisiana-Lafayette(5-5) 11
87Indiana(5-6) 14
88Old Dominion(5-6) 5
89Florida(4-6) 13
90Middle Tennessee State(5-6) 15
91Louisiana Tech(5-6) 8
92South Alabama(4-7) 13
93Florida State(4-6) 10
94Tennessee(4-7) 12
95Miami OH_(4-7) 11
96Maryland(4-7) 11
97Nebraska(4-7) 11
98Vanderbilt(4-7) 9
99Pittsburgh(4-7) 9
100Air Force(4-7) 5
101Rutgers(4-7) 9
102Louisiana-Monroe(4-6) 2
103Arkansas(4-7) 7
104Massachusetts(4-7) 4
105Eastern Michigan(4-7) 5
106New Mexico State(4-6) 2
107Idaho(3-7) 2
108Cincinnati(3-8) 1
109Connecticut(3-8) 3
110North Carolina(3-8) 6
111East Carolina(3-8) 8
112New Mexico(3-8) 3
113Brigham Young(3-9) 2
114Hawaii(3-8) 2
115Tulsa(2-9) 2
116Kent State(2-9) 2
117Ball State(2-9) 2
118Illinois(2-9) 1
119Coastal Carolina(2-9) 8
120Bowling Green State(2-9) 2
121Texas State(2-9) 1
122Nevada(2-9) 1
123Charlotte(1-10) 1
124Georgia Southern(1-9) 12
125San Jose State(1-11) 2
126Kansas(1-10) 2
127Oregon State(1-10) 1
128Baylor(1-10) 3
129Rice(1-10) 1
130Texas-El Paso(0-11)--

For all of the excitement of recent weeks, Week 12 was rather mundane in comparison. There was no shake up between the top-6, and only two changes in general in the top-10. (7) Notre Dame climbed three spots with their 24-17 victory over (55) Navy, while (10) Penn State returned to the upper echelon of teams thanks to the reemergence of Saquon Barkley as part of the all-offense 56-44 win over (97) Nebraska. Within the top-25, the two teams that took home the honor of greatest positive movement were (22) Stanford and (23) Mississippi State, each advancing (+8) in the rankings. In (22) Stanford’s case, the game against (75) California was defined by big plays for both teams, a missed field goal, a fake punt, and a late interception that ultimately led to a hard-fought 17-14 Cardinal win. For (23) Mississippi State, they, too, had their work cut out for them against (103) Arkansas; the two teams took turns delivering unanswered blows with each passing quarter: Razorbacks 14, Bulldogs 14, Razorbacks 7, Bulldogs 14. The pendulum repeatedly swung back-and-forth, but finally came to a stop leaning in (23) Mississippi State’s direction. Within that same grouping, (12) Washington State was our biggest negative mover (-5), attributable to the previously-discussed bye week.

Below, get a hold of Oracle’s newest component for NCAAF, the projections for the top-10 teams’ chances of making the 2017 College Football Playoff:

NCAAF Oracle – Chances to make the CFP

RankTeamRecordCFP Chances
1Alabama(11-0)94.76%
2Wisconsin(11-0)93.86%
3Clemson(10-1)61.06%
4Georgia(10-1)55.41%
5Miami FL_(10-0)44.34%
6Notre Dame(9-2)27.83%
7Oklahoma(10-1)13.84%
8Central Florida(10-0)8.38%
9Auburn(9-2)0.43%
10Washington State(9-2)0.05%

As a brief refresher or crash course, the College Football Playoff is a four-team playoff that results in a National Championship game following the two semifinal games. Looking at various factors throughout the season, the four teams are ranked and chosen by a 13-member committee. As you can see, heading into Week 13, Oracle favors (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, and (4) Georgia to be the selected teams for the College Football Playoff. (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin are practically shoe-ins at this point, but those last two spots are still up for grabs (and there is still the unlikely shot that the Crimson Tide or Badgers blow that cushioned lead they’ve worked so hard to earn). That next team itching to break through is (5) Miami_FL, who is only 11% behind (4) Georgia. The Hurricanes will have first crack at things, taking on Pittsburgh early on Friday. Depending on how this game plays out, the Bulldogs may have added pressure breathing down their necks as they play 24 hours later, against Georgia Tech. Keep in mind, rankings aren’t as clear-cut as being determined by a win or loss; there are far more contributing factors, including home-or-road and close-or-blowout. Both (5) Miami_FL and (4) Georgia will be on the road this week, so keep an eye on the finer details of each game to see possible implications for next week’s Oracle projections.

Notice that the rankings in this table are not the same as the Oracle rankings overall; instead, the rankings you see in this table are representative of the order of likelihood the teams have of making the Playoff. For comparison purposes, if we were to instead list the overall rankings for these 10 teams in order from greatest to least for CFP Chances, it would be as follows: (1) Alabama, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Clemson, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami_FL, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Oklahoma, (9) Central Florida, (13) Auburn, and (12) Washington State.

Rk Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 Alabama 52% 10% 18% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 Wisconsin 22% 37% 20% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 Clemson 17% 21% 14% 9% 13% 14% 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 Georgia 7% 20% 19% 10% 12% 17% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 Miami FL_ 3% 11% 16% 15% 10% 12% 16% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6 Southern California 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 18% 27% 26% 15% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 Notre Dame 0% 2% 8% 18% 16% 6% 1% 2% 6% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 Oklahoma 0% 0% 3% 11% 17% 13% 5% 2% 6% 12% 16% 11% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 Central Florida 0% 0% 1% 7% 16% 16% 8% 2% 0% 3% 12% 18% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9% 12% 15% 12% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
11 Ohio State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 10% 16% 14% 6% 1% 2% 7% 12% 12% 8% 5% 2% 1% 0%
12 Washington State 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 14% 12% 5% 1% 0% 1% 6% 13% 15% 10% 4% 1% 0%
13 Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 17% 14% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 11% 11% 8% 5% 2% 1%
14 Boise State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 12% 14% 10% 4% 1% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9%
15 Texas Christian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 8% 16% 15% 8% 4% 6% 10% 11% 10%
16 Memphis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% 16% 15% 7% 1% 1% 3% 7% 10%
17 Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 10% 14% 12% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 7%
18 San Diego State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 9% 6% 3% 2%
19 Michigan State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 9% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% 2%
20 Toledo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 8% 11% 11% 9% 4%

The top-5 has slowly become more solidified, particularly with (1) Alabama and (2) Wisconsin expected to maintain their current standing. Looking at the (3) spot, you’ll see that (4) Georgia actually has stronger odds than (3) Clemson of claiming the ranking. However, this is influenced by the fact that there is a 38% chance (3) Clemson could wind up in the top-2, compared to the 27% for (4) Georgia. With that in mind, the discrepancy in projections for (3) can be explained by those greater odds for the Tigers to move up, rather than being knocked down by the Bulldogs. Granted, that follows the assumption that both teams win, which isn’t necessarily a guarantee.

Some of the top match-ups should be between (1) Alabama and (13) Auburn in the latest rendition of the Iron Bowl and (12) Washington State and (17) Washington in the Apple Cup (a rivalry title that lacks the same grit-and-grind as the Iron Bowl). The outcome of the Iron Bowl won’t really have a huge impact on the rest of the NCAAF season, as (13) Auburn has less than a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoff and, as previously stated, (1) Alabama is all-but-locked-in. That being said, the Apple Cup will have interesting tremor effects, specifically for the Valero Alamo Bowl, as discussed at the beginning of this piece. The blessing-and-curse for (12) Washington State is that the game will be hosted by the rival Huskies. The curse? On paper, it’s generally harder to win on the road than it is at home and, in this case, the Huskies are 6-0 at home this season. The blessing? That lowers the expectations (to a degree) on the Cougars, meaning a closely-played loss wouldn’t necessarily destroy the chances for them to make the Valero Alamo Bowl, while a win on the road might be calculated as more impactful than a (17) Washington win at home.

Saving the most important for last, Thanksgiving is a mere two days away. Regardless of whether you celebrate this particular holiday or not, it is the manifestation of taking the time to reflect upon what it is we are thankful for, something that transcends any one day during the calendar year. With that in mind, thank you for your ongoing participation and interest in Oracle.

Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

>>

This entry was posted in NCAAF. Bookmark the permalink.