2017 NFL Oracle – Week 7

Good news, bad news. The good news is that Week 6 of the 2017 NFL season had plenty of highs for those of you that saw your team pull out a victory, or if you had success predicting the outcomes of each game. The bad news is that, if you aren’t a fan of any of those winning teams, or if you had as much luck picking correct outcomes as the (31) Cleveland Browns do winning games, then Week 6 had plenty of lows. So, with that being said, take a look at the rankings heading into Week 7, as well as how each team is trending.

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 07

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Kansas City Chiefs(5-1)--
2Philadelphia Eagles(5-1) 3
3Minnesota Vikings(4-2) 6
4Pittsburgh Steelers(4-2) 6
5New England Patriots(4-2) 3
6Carolina Panthers(4-2) 4
7Green Bay Packers(4-2) 4
8Los Angeles Rams(4-2) 8
9New Orleans Saints(3-2) 8
10Buffalo Bills(3-2) 6
11Jacksonville Jaguars(3-3) 4
12Atlanta Falcons(3-2) 6
13Miami Dolphins(3-2) 10
14Detroit Lions(3-3) 2
15Tennessee Titans(3-3) 3
16New York Jets(3-3) 5
17Denver Broncos(3-2) 4
18Washington Redskins(3-2) 2
19Houston Texans(3-3) 2
20Seattle Seahawks(3-2) 5
21Baltimore Ravens(3-3) 7
22Arizona Cardinals(3-3) 3
23Chicago Bears(2-4) 5
24Oakland Raiders(2-4) 5
25Cincinnati Bengals(2-3) 3
26Dallas Cowboys(2-3) 2
27Tampa Bay Buccaneers(2-3) 1
28Los Angeles Chargers(2-4) 1
29Indianapolis Colts(2-4) 2
30New York Giants(1-5) 1
31Cleveland Browns(0-6) 1
32San Francisco 49ers(0-6)--

Let’s take a moment and really give a round of applause to the (13) Miami Dolphins, as they were our big movers (+10) thanks to an almost-incredible comeback against the (12) Atlanta Falcons. To be clear, the Dolphins did come back to win the game 20-17, hence the “incredible” since their season started with a season-ending injury to quarterback Ryan Tannehill and was followed with the out-of-necessity signing of Jay “mediocre” Cutler. But then there’s the “almost” part: don’t forget, the Falcons are the team that blew a 28-3 to the (5) New England Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl, so blowing a 17-point lead on Sunday wasn’t entirely unprecedented.

On the other side of the coin, our biggest movers in the wrong direction were the (21) Baltimore Ravens (-7). Not that their Week 6 game against the (23) Chicago Bears was in the bag, but Oracle did have roughly 72% confidence in the Ravens to not blow it. I can’t even justify this by saying 2017 No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky was stellar in his debut; the kid certainly played well, but to expect the Bears to pull out a 27-24 overtime win on the road would have been a bit much…although apparently it wasn’t.

In any event, now that the top-5 have been shaken up (with exception to the not-so-undefeated-anymore (1) Kansas City Chiefs) let’s take a look at the Oracle picks for Week 7.

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 07

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Oct 19 2017(1) KC @ (24) OAK(1) KC62.32%
Sun Oct 22 2017(16) NYJ @ (13) MIA(16) NYJ55.30%
Sun Oct 22 2017(25) CIN @ (4) PIT(4) PIT63.77%
Sun Oct 22 2017(11) JAC @ (29) IND(11) JAC84.64%
Sun Oct 22 2017(21) BAL @ (3) MIN(3) MIN54.01%
Sun Oct 22 2017(6) CAR @ (23) CHI(6) CAR61.72%
Sun Oct 22 2017(22) ARI @ (8) LAR(8) LAR73.07%
Sun Oct 22 2017(15) TEN @ (31) CLE(15) TEN83.08%
Sun Oct 22 2017(27) TB @ (10) BUF(10) BUF56.72%
Sun Oct 22 2017(9) NO @ (7) GB(9) NO54.48%
Sun Oct 22 2017(26) DAL @ (32) SF(26) DAL74.57%
Sun Oct 22 2017(17) DEN @ (28) LAC(17) DEN66.45%
Sun Oct 22 2017(20) SEA @ (30) NYG(20) SEA63.31%
Sun Oct 22 2017(12) ATL @ (5) NE(5) NE58.94%
Mon Oct 23 2017(18) WAS @ (2) PHI(2) PHI59.68%

Sure-fire picks (give or take)

We’ve got two games this week that should be overflowing with one-sided action: (11) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (29) Indianapolis Colts and (15) Tennessee Titans @ (31) Cleveland Browns. Behind an elite defense with an offense predicated on rookie Leonard Fournette bulldozing players and Blake Bortles never throwing the ball, the Jaguars have become a threat to many. This remains the case against the AFC South-rival and Andrew Luck-less Colts, with Oracle nearly 85% certain Jacksonville can move to 4-3.

Unfortunately for Jacksonville, Tennessee is also expected to move to 4-3, which would keep both teams locked atop the division standings with the (19) Houston Texans facing a bye. Whether the Browns have Kevin Hogan or DeShone Kizer at the helm, the Titans will look to continue what the Texans started in Week 6 against Cleveland; Oracle has 83% confidence in the Titans chances of winning…or is it the Browns chances of losing?

Flip a coin

There are six NFL games this week that Oracle has a confidence level in the 50th percentile, indicative of a likely-close performance in each game. Arguably the two most-interesting of these games are (9) New Orleans Saints @ (7) Green Bay Packers and (12) Atlanta Falcons @ (5) New England Patriots. Originally, the Saints-Packers match-up was going to be an offensive showdown between elite quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers…until Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone on his throwing shoulder in Week 6. New Orleans is given the edge at 54%, but still, no team likes to go on the road to Lambeau Field.

On that same note, teams generally don’t like to head to Foxborough to face Bill Belichick and Tom Brady…except this year, opponents have had no trouble scoring points on the road against the Patriots, so maybe the Falcons can spread their wings and soar high after facing some turbulence in Week 6. Oracle gives the Patriots a 59% chance of winning in this rematch of last year’s Super Bowl.

The NFL Oracle was 5-9 (35.71%) during week 6. Here is how we did predicting each game:

[50.33%]: (5) Philadelphia Eagles 28 @ (2) Carolina Panthers 23
[68.58%]: (23) Miami Dolphins 20 @ (6) Atlanta Falcons 17
[97.39%]: (32) San Francisco 49ers 24 @ (20) Washington Redskins 26
[54.50%]: (8) New England Patriots 24 @ (11) New York Jets 17
[98.24%]: (30) Cleveland Browns 17 @ (21) Houston Texans 33
[53.89%]: (3) Green Bay Packers 10 @ (9) Minnesota Vikings 23
[79.18%]: (28) Chicago Bears 27 @ (14) Baltimore Ravens 24
[55.76%]: (12) Detroit Lions 38 @ (17) New Orleans Saints 52
[68.47%]: (16) Los Angeles Rams 27 @ (7) Jacksonville Jaguars 17
[76.70%]: (26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33 @ (25) Arizona Cardinals 38
[61.75%]: (10) Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs 13
[89.28%]: (29) Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ (19) Oakland Raiders 16
[97.77%]: (31) New York Giants 23 @ (13) Denver Broncos 10
[87.99%]: (27) Indianapolis Colts 22 @ (18) Tennessee Titans 36

Can we please agree that numbers can be deceiving? For starters, apparently anything can happen during 2017 when it comes to Thursday Night Football, and it’s not like Oracle was 99% confident the Eagles would beat the Panthers. In saying that, I concede that I have no excuse for the 98% confidence-level the Broncos would beat the Giants, whose season appeared to end at the same moment star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.’s did. Besides that, few anticipated the Falcons blowing a late-lead to the Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers getting injured early in the game, the Bears forcing and winning overtime, or the Steelers offense finally waking up against the then-undefeated Chiefs. So, as I previously proposed, numbers can be deceiving, since Oracle realistically could have gone 10-4. But I digress. Here’s how Oracle stacked up to other predictive ranking methods.

Win % Massey Colley Biased Voter Keener PageRank NFL Oracle
CAR PHI CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR
ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS
NYJ NE NE NE NE NE NE
HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU
GB GB GB GB MIN MIN GB
BAL BAL BAL BAL CHI BAL BAL
DET NO DET NO NO NO NO
JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC JAC
TB TB TB TB TB TB TB
KC KC KC KC KC KC KC
OAK LAC OAK OAK LAC OAK OAK
DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN
TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN
3-11 7-7 4-10 5-9 8-6 6-8 5-9

Thanks for checking in. We’ll see you again in one week’s time. Hopefully there will be just as much to write about, with fewer injuries and incorrect predictions.

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell

Do you think you can pick NFL games better than the NFL Oracle?

See how you do in the 2017 NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge

This entry was posted in NFL. Bookmark the permalink.