The closest Bowl game of the year and of the last 17 years!
The Valero Alamo bowl not only is the closest game in the last 17 years of BCS-CPF era, but the hardest bowl game to predict this season.
Why should you listen to the NCAAF Oracle: As a friend of the Oracle, you know that we will provide you with the historical data so you can verify the Oracle accuracy of 70.5% by picking the last 12 out of the last 17 Bowl games
Computer predictions and accuracy of Alamo Bowl games during 1998-2014
| Year | Game results | WP | Ma | Col | BV | Ke | PR | Or |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Kansas State 34 vs Purdue 37 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| 1999 | Texas A&M 0 vs Penn State 24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2000 | Northwestern 17 vs Nebraska 66 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2001 | Texas Tech 16 vs Iowa 19 | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2002 | Colorado 28 vs Wisconsin 31 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2003 | Michigan State 3 vs Nebraska 17 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2004 | Oklahoma State 7 vs Ohio State 33 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2005 | Michigan 28 vs Nebraska 32 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2006 | Iowa 24 vs Texas 26 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2007 | Texas A&M 17 vs Penn State 24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2008 | Northwestern 23 vs Missouri 30 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2009 | Michigan State 31 vs Texas Tech 41 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2010 | Arizona 10 vs Oklahoma State 36 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2011 | Washington 56 vs Baylor 67 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2012 | Oregon State 27 vs Texas 31 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2013 | Texas 7 vs Oregon 30 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2014 | Kansas State 35 vs UCLA 40 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Accuracy (out of 17) | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
As a reminder, WP is the Win Percentage, Ma is Massey Ratings (original published version and used in the former BCS), Col is Colley Ratings (open source used in BCS), BV is the Biased Voter method, Ke is the Keener method, and PR is the PageRank method, the original engine behind Google
How about the latest Valero Alamo Bowl: The next game will feature Texas Christian University vs Oregon in San Antonio, TX and here is how each of the computer rankings are predicting this game:
| Ranking | Predicted Winner | Chances |
|---|---|---|
| WP | TCU | 62.9% |
| Ma | TCU | 58.2% |
| Col | TCU | 53.3% |
| BV | TCU | 62.8% |
| Ke | Oregon | 73.4% |
| PR | Oregon | 86.0% |
| Or | Oregon | 51.1% |
Why the closest game in the last 17 years: The NCAAF Oracle has provided good predictions int he BCS-CFP era and its confidence predictions for the winner are usually above 60%. Indeed, here are the last 17 years, as predicted by the Oracle
| Year | Predicted Winner | Chances |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Purdue | 84.7% |
| 1999 | Penn State | 66.7% |
| 2000 | Nebraska | 60.2% |
| 2001 | Iowa | 64.6% |
| 2002 | Wisconsin | 73.4% |
| 2003 | Nebraska | 67.3% |
| 2004 | Ohio State | 57.0% |
| 2005 | Nebraska | 61.0% |
| 2006 | Texas | 92.2% |
| 2007 | Penn State | 60.5% |
| 2008 | Missouri | 53.5% |
| 2009 | Texas Tech | 78.4% |
| 2010 | Oklahoma State | 87.7% |
| 2011 | Baylor | 84.6% |
| 2012 | Texas | 65.5% |
| 2013 | Oregon | 76.0% |
| 2014 | UCLA | 63.7% |
How does the Valero Alamo Bowl measure up to other bowls: The complete analysis and predictions are found at the site. Here we highlight the top hardest games to pick and the ones the NCAAF Oracle is the most confident:
| Date | Bowl | Pred. Winner | Pred. Loser |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 02 2016 | Valero Alamo Bowl | Oregon (51.1%) | Texas Christian (48.9%) |
| Tue Dec 22 2015 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Utah State (51.7%) | Akron (48.3%) |
| Thu Dec 31 2015 | Cotton Bowl (Playoff) | Alabama (51.8%) | Michigan State (48.2%) |
| Thu Dec 24 2015 | Hawaii Bowl | San Diego State (85.5%) | Cincinnati (14.5%) |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Foster Farms Bowl | UCLA (86.6%) | Nebraska (13.4%) |
| Wed Dec 30 2015 | Birmingham Bowl | Memphis (87.3%) | Auburn (12.7%) |
NCAAF Oracle: Bowl Predictions 2015
| Date | Bowl | Winner | Pred | Loser | Pred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 11 2016 | College Football Championship | Clemson | 52.5% | Alabama | 47.5% |
| Sat Jan 02 2016 | TicketCity Cactus Bowl | West Virginia | 59.1% | Arizona State | 40.9% |
| Sat Jan 02 2016 | Alamo Bowl | Oregon | 51.1% | Texas Christian | 48.9% |
| Sat Jan 02 2016 | Liberty Bowl | Arkansas | 84.8% | Kansas State | 15.2% |
| Sat Jan 02 2016 | TaxSlayer Bowl | Georgia | 74.1% | Penn State | 25.9% |
| Fri Jan 01 2016 | Sugar Bowl | Oklahoma State | 52.1% | Mississippi | 47.9% |
| Fri Jan 01 2016 | Rose Bowl | Stanford | 52.0% | Iowa | 48.0% |
| Fri Jan 01 2016 | Citrus Bowl | Florida | 62.8% | Michigan | 37.2% |
| Fri Jan 01 2016 | Fiesta Bowl | Ohio State | 60.9% | Notre Dame | 39.1% |
| Fri Jan 01 2016 | Outback Bowl | Northwestern | 80.6% | Tennessee | 19.4% |
| Thu Dec 31 2015 | Cotton Bowl | Alabama | 51.8% | Michigan State | 48.2% |
| Thu Dec 31 2015 | Orange Bowl | Clemson | 68.0% | Oklahoma | 32.0% |
| Thu Dec 31 2015 | Peach Bowl | Houston | 68.9% | Florida State | 31.1% |
| Wed Dec 30 2015 | Holiday Bowl | Southern California | 64.6% | Wisconsin | 35.4% |
| Wed Dec 30 2015 | Music City Bowl | Texas A&M | 75.0% | Louisville | 25.0% |
| Wed Dec 30 2015 | Belk Bowl | Mississippi State | 81.4% | North Carolina State | 18.6% |
| Wed Dec 30 2015 | Birmingham Bowl | Memphis | 87.3% | Auburn | 12.7% |
| Tue Dec 29 2015 | Texas Bowl | Louisiana State | 80.3% | Texas Tech | 19.7% |
| Tue Dec 29 2015 | Arizona Bowl | Colorado State | 66.5% | Nevada | 33.5% |
| Tue Dec 29 2015 | Russell Athletic Bowl | North Carolina | 76.2% | Baylor | 23.8% |
| Tue Dec 29 2015 | Armed Forces Bowl | California | 54.4% | Air Force | 45.6% |
| Mon Dec 28 2015 | Quick Lane Bowl | Central Michigan | 77.8% | Minnesota | 22.2% |
| Mon Dec 28 2015 | Military Bowl | Navy | 67.1% | Pittsburgh | 32.9% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Foster Farms Bowl | UCLA | 86.6% | Nebraska | 13.4% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Independence Bowl | Virginia Tech | 63.8% | Tulsa | 36.2% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Pinstripe Bowl | Duke | 55.8% | Indiana | 44.2% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Heart of Dallas Bowl | Southern Mississippi | 74.5% | Washington | 25.5% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | Sun Bowl | Washington State | 54.1% | Miami FL | 45.9% |
| Sat Dec 26 2015 | St. Petersburg Bowl | Marshall | 83.2% | Connecticut | 16.8% |
| Thu Dec 24 2015 | Hawaii Bowl | San Diego State | 85.5% | Cincinnati | 14.5% |
| Thu Dec 24 2015 | Popeyes Bahamas Bowl | Western Michigan | 62.1% | Middle Tennessee State | 37.9% |
| Wed Dec 23 2015 | GoDaddy Bowl | Bowling Green State | 79.1% | Georgia Southern | 20.9% |
| Wed Dec 23 2015 | Poinsettia Bowl | Northern Illinois | 52.9% | Boise State | 47.1% |
| Tue Dec 22 2015 | Boca Raton Bowl | Temple | 57.0% | Toledo | 43.0% |
| Tue Dec 22 2015 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Utah State | 51.7% | Akron | 48.3% |
| Mon Dec 21 2015 | Miami Beach Bowl | Western Kentucky | 84.6% | South Florida | 15.4% |
| Sat Dec 19 2015 | New Orleans Bowl | Arkansas State | 68.6% | Louisiana Tech | 31.4% |
| Sat Dec 19 2015 | AutoNation Cure Bowl | Georgia State | 73.4% | San Jose State | 26.6% |
| Sat Dec 19 2015 | Camellia Bowl | Appalachian State | 70.6% | Ohio | 29.4% |
| Sat Dec 19 2015 | Las Vegas Bowl | Utah | 59.2% | Brigham Young | 40.8% |
| Sat Dec 19 2015 | New Mexico Bowl | New Mexico | 67.0% | Arizona | 33.0% |
The NCAAF Oracle was 21-20 (51.22%) for the Bowl season and here is how we did:
Jan-11 [52.51%]: Clemson 40 @ Alabama 45
Jan-02 [59.09%]: West Virginia 43 @ Arizona State 42
Jan-02 [51.12%]: Oregon 41 @ Texas Christian 47
Jan-02 [84.84%]: Arkansas 45 @ Kansas State 23
Jan-02 [74.13%]: Georgia 24 @ Penn State 17
Jan-01 [52.12%]: Oklahoma State 20 @ Mississippi 48
Jan-01 [52.04%]: Stanford 45 @ Iowa 16
Jan-01 [62.79%]: Florida 7 @ Michigan 41
Jan-01 [60.89%]: Ohio State 44 @ Notre Dame 28
Jan-01 [80.65%]: Northwestern 6 @ Tennessee 45
Dec-31 [51.79%]: Alabama 38 @ Michigan State 0
Dec-31 [68.01%]: Clemson 37 @ Oklahoma 17
Dec-31 [68.89%]: Houston 38 @ Florida State 24
Dec-30 [64.59%]: Southern California 21 @ Wisconsin 23
Dec-30 [74.96%]: Texas A&M 21 @ Louisville 27
Dec-30 [81.39%]: Mississippi State 51 @ North Carolina State 28
Dec-30 [87.27%]: Memphis 10 @ Auburn 31
Dec-29 [80.26%]: Louisiana State 56 @ Texas Tech 27
Dec-29 [66.54%]: Colorado State 23 @ Nevada 28
Dec-29 [76.15%]: North Carolina 38 @ Baylor 49
Dec-29 [54.38%]: California 55 @ Air Force 36
Dec-28 [77.82%]: Central Michigan 14 @ Minnesota 21
Dec-28 [67.09%]: Navy 44 @ Pittsburgh 28
Dec-26 [86.61%]: UCLA 29 @ Nebraska 37
Dec-26 [63.83%]: Virginia Tech 55 @ Tulsa 52
Dec-26 [55.84%]: Duke 44 @ Indiana 41
Dec-26 [74.45%]: Southern Mississippi 31 @ Washington 44
Dec-26 [54.05%]: Washington State 20 @ Miami FL 14
Dec-26 [83.16%]: Marshall 16 @ Connecticut 10
Dec-24 [85.54%]: San Diego State 42 @ Cincinnati 7
Dec-24 [62.06%]: Western Michigan 45 @ Middle Tennessee State 31
Dec-23 [79.13%]: Bowling Green State 27 @ Georgia Southern 58
Dec-23 [52.95%]: Northern Illinois 7 @ Boise State 55
Dec-22 [57.00%]: Temple 17 @ Toledo 32
Dec-22 [51.67%]: Utah State 21 @ Akron 23
Dec-21 [84.56%]: Western Kentucky 45 @ South Florida 35
Dec-19 [68.62%]: Arkansas State 28 @ Louisiana Tech 47
Dec-19 [73.44%]: Georgia State 16 @ San Jose State 27
Dec-19 [70.57%]: Appalachian State 31 @ Ohio 29
Dec-19 [59.17%]: Utah 35 @ Brigham Young 28
Dec-19 [67.05%]: New Mexico 37 @ Arizona 45