NCAAF Oracle Rankings - Week 13
| Rank | Team | Record | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | (12-0) | -- |
| 2 | Alabama | (11-1) | -- |
| 3 | Michigan State | (11-1) | -- |
| 4 | Oklahoma | (11-1) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | Iowa | (12-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | Ohio State | (11-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | North Carolina | (11-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 8 | Stanford | (10-2) | ▲ 4 |
| 9 | Houston | (11-1) | ▲ 4 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | (10-2) | ▼ 4 |
| 11 | Northwestern | (10-2) | -- |
| 12 | Florida State | (10-2) | ▲ 4 |
| 13 | Florida | (10-2) | ▼ 6 |
| 14 | Mississippi | (9-3) | ▲ 4 |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | (10-2) | ▼ 5 |
| 16 | Oregon | (9-3) | ▲ 3 |
| 17 | Texas Christian | (10-2) | ▲ 6 |
| 18 | Utah | (9-3) | ▼ 1 |
| 19 | Western Kentucky | (10-2) | ▲ 7 |
| 20 | Temple | (10-2) | ▲ 5 |
| 21 | Michigan | (9-3) | ▼ 7 |
| 22 | Navy | (9-2) | ▼ 7 |
| 23 | Brigham Young | (9-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 24 | Southern California | (8-4) | ▲ 10 |
| 25 | Memphis | (9-3) | ▲ 4 |
| 26 | Toledo | (9-2) | ▼ 6 |
| 27 | Louisiana State | (8-3) | ▲ 6 |
| 28 | Baylor | (9-2) | ▼ 7 |
| 29 | Bowling Green State | (9-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 30 | Georgia | (9-3) | ▲ 2 |
| 31 | UCLA | (8-4) | ▼ 7 |
| 32 | Mississippi State | (8-4) | ▼ 10 |
| 33 | San Diego State | (9-3) | ▲ 5 |
| 34 | Washington State | (8-4) | ▼ 7 |
| 35 | Texas A&M | (8-4) | ▼ 7 |
| 36 | Appalachian State | (9-2) | ▲ 6 |
| 37 | Wisconsin | (9-3) | ▲ 4 |
| 38 | Miami FL | (8-4) | ▲ 10 |
| 39 | Pittsburgh | (8-4) | ▼ 8 |
| 40 | Southern Mississippi | (9-3) | ▲ 7 |
| 41 | Arkansas | (7-5) | ▲ 4 |
| 42 | Tennessee | (8-4) | ▲ 2 |
| 43 | Marshall | (9-3) | ▼ 8 |
| 44 | Ohio | (8-4) | ▲ 6 |
| 45 | South Florida | (8-4) | ▼ 2 |
| 46 | Arkansas State | (8-3) | ▲ 3 |
| 47 | Northern Illinois | (8-4) | ▼ 10 |
| 48 | California | (7-5) | ▲ 5 |
| 49 | Georgia Southern | (8-3) | ▲ 3 |
| 50 | Boise State | (8-4) | ▲ 5 |
| 51 | Air Force | (8-4) | ▼ 12 |
| 52 | Louisiana Tech | (8-4) | ▼ 12 |
| 53 | Western Michigan | (7-5) | ▲ 16 |
| 54 | Penn State | (7-5) | ▼ 8 |
| 55 | West Virginia | (7-4) | ▲ 4 |
| 56 | New Mexico | (7-5) | ▲ 9 |
| 57 | Cincinnati | (7-5) | ▲ 5 |
| 58 | Texas Tech | (7-5) | ▲ 10 |
| 59 | Central Michigan | (7-5) | ▼ 1 |
| 60 | Louisville | (7-5) | ▲ 3 |
| 61 | Washington | (6-6) | ▲ 12 |
| 62 | Colorado State | (7-5) | ▲ 2 |
| 63 | Arizona State | (6-6) | ▼ 12 |
| 64 | Middle Tennessee State | (7-5) | ▲ 7 |
| 65 | North Carolina State | (7-5) | ▼ 11 |
| 66 | Auburn | (6-6) | ▼ 10 |
| 67 | Duke | (7-5) | ▲ 5 |
| 68 | Utah State | (6-6) | ▼ 8 |
| 69 | Akron | (7-5) | ▲ 5 |
| 70 | Arizona | (6-6) | ▼ 13 |
| 71 | Nebraska | (5-7) | ▼ 10 |
| 72 | Indiana | (6-6) | ▲ 4 |
| 73 | Nevada | (6-6) | ▼ 6 |
| 74 | Virginia Tech | (6-6) | ▲ 5 |
| 75 | Connecticut | (6-6) | ▼ 9 |
| 76 | Missouri | (5-7) | ▼ 6 |
| 77 | Minnesota | (5-7) | ▼ 2 |
| 78 | Tulsa | (6-6) | ▲ 9 |
| 79 | South Alabama | (5-6) | ▼ 2 |
| 80 | Illinois | (5-7) | ▼ 2 |
| 81 | Buffalo | (5-7) | -- |
| 82 | San Jose State | (5-7) | -- |
| 83 | Georgia State | (5-6) | ▲ 8 |
| 84 | Kentucky | (5-7) | ▼ 4 |
| 85 | Kansas State | (5-6) | ▲ 4 |
| 86 | East Carolina | (5-7) | ▼ 3 |
| 87 | Texas-El Paso | (5-7) | ▲ 6 |
| 88 | Texas | (4-7) | ▼ 3 |
| 89 | Florida International | (5-7) | ▼ 5 |
| 90 | Old Dominion | (5-7) | ▼ 4 |
| 91 | Vanderbilt | (4-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 92 | Rice | (5-7) | ▲ 6 |
| 93 | Virginia | (4-8) | ▼ 3 |
| 94 | Syracuse | (4-8) | ▲ 5 |
| 95 | Colorado | (4-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 96 | Louisiana-Lafayette | (4-7) | ▼ 2 |
| 97 | Rutgers | (4-8) | ▼ 2 |
| 98 | Idaho | (4-8) | ▲ 13 |
| 99 | Georgia Tech | (3-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 100 | South Carolina | (3-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 101 | Maryland | (3-9) | ▲ 13 |
| 102 | Boston College | (3-9) | ▼ 2 |
| 103 | Florida Atlantic | (3-9) | ▲ 16 |
| 104 | Texas-San Antonio | (3-9) | -- |
| 105 | New Mexico State | (3-8) | ▼ 4 |
| 106 | Nevada-Las Vegas | (3-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 107 | Massachusetts | (3-9) | ▲ 14 |
| 108 | Texas State | (3-8) | ▼ 6 |
| 109 | Kent State | (3-9) | ▼ 1 |
| 110 | Fresno State | (3-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 111 | Iowa State | (3-9) | ▼ 6 |
| 112 | Wake Forest | (3-9) | ▼ 6 |
| 113 | Ball State | (3-9) | ▼ 3 |
| 114 | Hawaii | (3-10) | ▲ 6 |
| 115 | Troy | (3-8) | ▼ 6 |
| 116 | Miami OH | (3-9) | ▼ 4 |
| 117 | Tulane | (3-9) | ▼ 4 |
| 118 | Purdue | (2-10) | ▼ 3 |
| 119 | Wyoming | (2-10) | ▲ 4 |
| 120 | Oregon State | (2-10) | ▼ 4 |
| 121 | Charlotte | (2-10) | ▼ 4 |
| 122 | Army | (2-9) | ▼ 1 |
| 123 | Southern Methodist | (2-10) | ▼ 1 |
| 124 | North Texas | (1-11) | -- |
| 125 | Louisiana-Monroe | (1-11) | -- |
| 126 | Eastern Michigan | (1-11) | ▲ 2 |
| 127 | Central Florida | (0-12) | -- |
| 128 | Kansas | (0-12) | -- |
The weekly CFP rankings are out and the NCAAF Oracle has the same top six teams. The Oracle was also quite accurate in its rankings projections from last week that we are continuing with this analysis.
The Oracle wanted to find out if the rankings were really influenced by a November to remember or how would the ranks change if the committee had a short memory or perhaps they were nostalgic about the season. We set out the following experiment:
- November to Remember: Games played in the month of November are given twice the weight by the Oracle.
- Short Memory: The Oracle weights games according to how well it can remember, thus losing early will not hurt your rankings as much as if you lost recently. That is, later games are more important.
- Nostalgic: “Those were the days, my friends, We thought they’d never end…” The Oracle misses the warmth of late summer, so it tried to give more importance to the early games in the season
It turns out that how you weight the season does matter.
NCAAF Oracle: Week 13- Different Versions of Rankings
| Rank | NCAAF Oracle | Nov. to Remember | Short Memory | Nostalgic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | Oklahoma | Alabama | Clemson |
| 2 | Alabama | Alabama | Clemson | Michigan State |
| 3 | Michigan State | Clemson | Oklahoma | Alabama |
| 4 | Oklahoma | Iowa | Michigan State | Iowa |
| 5 | Iowa | Michigan State | Iowa | Oklahoma |
| 6 | Ohio State | North Carolina | North Carolina | Ohio State |
| 7 | North Carolina | Ohio State | Stanford | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Stanford | Houston | Ohio State | Florida |
| 9 | Houston | Oregon | Houston | Stanford |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Northwestern | Oregon | Northwestern |
| 11 | Northwestern | Stanford | Florida State | Houston |
| 12 | Florida State | Florida State | Northwestern | Utah |
| 13 | Florida | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Oklahoma State |
| 14 | Mississippi | Florida | Florida | North Carolina |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | Western Kentucky | Mississippi | Florida State |
| 16 | Oregon | Georgia | Western Kentucky | Texas Christian |
| 17 | Texas Christian | Mississippi | Oklahoma State | Mississippi |
| 18 | Utah | Temple | Texas Christian | Temple |
| 19 | Western Kentucky | Navy | Navy | Western Kentucky |
| 20 | Temple | Michigan | Temple | Louisiana State |
| 21 | Michigan | Oklahoma State | Michigan | Michigan |
| 22 | Navy | Southern California | Southern California | Memphis |
| 23 | Brigham Young | Brigham Young | Utah | Brigham Young |
| 24 | Southern California | South Florida | Brigham Young | Oregon |
| 25 | Memphis | Bowling Green State | San Diego State | Navy |
2015 NCAAF Oracle – Week 13