NBA Oracle - Rankings: Tuesday, February 23, 2016
| Rank | Team | Record | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden State Warriors | (50-5) | -- |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | (47-9) | -- |
| 3 | Cleveland Cavaliers | (40-15) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Oklahoma City Thunder | (40-16) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | (37-18) | -- |
| 6 | Los Angeles Clippers | (37-19) | -- |
| 7 | Boston Celtics | (33-25) | -- |
| 8 | Miami Heat | (32-24) | ▲ 2 |
| 9 | Memphis Grizzlies | (32-23) | -- |
| 10 | Atlanta Hawks | (31-27) | ▼ 2 |
| 11 | Chicago Bulls | (29-26) | ▲ 1 |
| 12 | Indiana Pacers | (30-26) | ▲ 1 |
| 13 | Charlotte Hornets | (29-26) | ▲ 1 |
| 14 | Portland Trail Blazers | (29-27) | ▲ 3 |
| 15 | Dallas Mavericks | (30-27) | ▼ 4 |
| 16 | Detroit Pistons | (28-29) | -- |
| 17 | Houston Rockets | (28-28) | ▼ 2 |
| 18 | Utah Jazz | (27-28) | -- |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | (25-29) | -- |
| 20 | Milwaukee Bucks | (24-33) | ▲ 3 |
| 21 | New York Knicks | (24-34) | ▼ 1 |
| 22 | Orlando Magic | (24-30) | ▼ 1 |
| 23 | Sacramento Kings | (23-31) | ▲ 1 |
| 24 | Denver Nuggets | (22-34) | ▼ 2 |
| 25 | New Orleans Pelicans | (22-33) | -- |
| 26 | Minnesota Timberwolves | (18-39) | -- |
| 27 | Brooklyn Nets | (15-41) | -- |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns | (14-43) | -- |
| 29 | Los Angeles Lakers | (11-47) | -- |
| 30 | Philadelphia 76ers | (8-47) | -- |
This NBA season everyone expects the top two teams in the West to be the Warriors and the Spurs. The fun question is whether or not the Warriors and the Spurs (why not?) will have a better record than the 1996 Chicago Bulls.
The NBA Oracle decided to run simulations and figure this out. It is not a surprise that the NBA Oracle and just about everyone predicts that CLE will win the East and will meet the winner of GSW and SAS. At this point, GSW has 26% chance to win, SAS 18%, and CLE has 11% chance to win the title.
Will the Warriors Catch the 96 Bulls? This would be an amazing feat! One cannot be certain and the NBA Oracle can only predict that they do have a good chance. In fact, we predict that they will go 73-9. More conservatives simulations have them at 71-11 and we do assume they will be healthy until the end. It will be hard, but it will make a memorable NBA Season. Here is their win Distribution:
Can the Spurs beat the Bulls record? Is that even possible? Yes, but this requires them to go undefeated. There is a 0.01% chance that the spurs will do that. Although the writer has a bias towards the spurs, we do not predict that. The NBA Oracle predicts that the Spurs will go 66-16. In fact, this the distribution of Wins:
How will the Cavaliers do? It seems clear that Lebron James will again go to the NBA Finals and the NBA Oracle predict it to be the best team in the East. As far as wins, the NBA Oracle predict they will go 61-21 and this is their distribution of wins:
In case one wonders about the other teams, here is the NBA Oracle predictions
NBA Oracle Predictions - Tuesday, February 23, 2016
| Team | Projected | Playoff % | Home Court | Finals | Champ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | (73-9) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 36.7% | 25.8% |
| SAS | (66-16) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 26.6% | 17.4% |
| CLE | (61-21) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 25.3% | 11.4% |
| OKC | (54-28) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| TOR | (59-23) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 21.2% | 9.3% |
| LAC | (56-26) | 100.0% | 100.0% | 11.4% | 6.2% |
| BOS | (49-33) | 100.0% | 94.6% | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| MIA | (48-34) | 99.9% | 96.3% | 12.5% | 4.4% |
| MEM | (46-36) | 100.0% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| ATL | (43-39) | 80.4% | 2.4% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| CHI | (42-40) | 57.7% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| IND | (44-38) | 92.5% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 2.1% |
| CHA | (43-39) | 75.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| POR | (41-41) | 97.4% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| DAL | (44-38) | 99.4% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| DET | (43-39) | 74.9% | 0.5% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| HOU | (40-42) | 84.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| UTA | (37-45) | 17.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| WAS | (40-42) | 15.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| MIL | (38-44) | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| NYK | (34-48) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ORL | (36-46) | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SAC | (34-48) | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DEN | (32-50) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NOP | (33-49) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN | (25-57) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BKN | (22-60) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHX | (21-61) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LAL | (16-66) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI | (12-70) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
*100% does not guarantee the outcome, only that it did occur in the 10,000 simulations.
NBA Oracle Predictions - Tuesday, February 23, 2016
| Date | NBA Games | NBA Oracle Picks | Pick Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Feb 23 2016 | (23) SAC @ (24) DEN | (24) DEN | 53.12% |
| Tue Feb 23 2016 | (22) ORL @ (30) PHI | (22) ORL | 66.56% |
| Tue Feb 23 2016 | (27) BKN @ (14) POR | (14) POR | 77.75% |
| Tue Feb 23 2016 | (17) HOU @ (18) UTA | (18) UTA | 58.04% |
| Tue Feb 23 2016 | (25) NOP @ (19) WAS | (19) WAS | 61.98% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (19) WAS @ (11) CHI | (11) CHI | 57.36% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (13) CHA @ (3) CLE | (3) CLE | 66.72% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (4) OKC @ (15) DAL | (4) OKC | 50.69% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (30) PHI @ (16) DET | (16) DET | 81.71% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (21) NYK @ (12) IND | (12) IND | 59.74% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (24) DEN @ (6) LAC | (6) LAC | 61.46% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (29) LAL @ (9) MEM | (9) MEM | 77.31% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (1) GSW @ (8) MIA | (1) GSW | 60.70% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (2) SAS @ (23) SAC | (2) SAS | 59.39% |
| Wed Feb 24 2016 | (26) MIN @ (5) TOR | (5) TOR | 68.37% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (20) MIL @ (7) BOS | (7) BOS | 65.05% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (4) OKC @ (25) NOP | (4) OKC | 51.62% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (1) GSW @ (22) ORL | (1) GSW | 65.50% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (27) BKN @ (28) PHX | (28) PHX | 65.88% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (17) HOU @ (14) POR | (14) POR | 58.96% |
| Thu Feb 25 2016 | (2) SAS @ (18) UTA | (2) SAS | 52.96% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (11) CHI @ (10) ATL | (10) ATL | 58.25% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (24) DEN @ (15) DAL | (15) DAL | 57.65% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (13) CHA @ (12) IND | (12) IND | 60.52% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (9) MEM @ (29) LAL | (9) MEM | 69.91% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (22) ORL @ (21) NYK | (21) NYK | 57.86% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (19) WAS @ (30) PHI | (19) WAS | 74.96% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (6) LAC @ (23) SAC | (6) LAC | 58.94% |
| Fri Feb 26 2016 | (3) CLE @ (5) TOR | (5) TOR | 51.65% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (8) MIA @ (7) BOS | (7) BOS | 52.35% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (14) POR @ (11) CHI | (11) CHI | 62.34% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (2) SAS @ (17) HOU | (2) SAS | 55.19% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (16) DET @ (20) MIL | (20) MIL | 54.75% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (26) MIN @ (25) NOP | (25) NOP | 62.39% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (1) GSW @ (4) OKC | (1) GSW | 54.38% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (9) MEM @ (28) PHX | (9) MEM | 56.15% |
| Sat Feb 27 2016 | (27) BKN @ (18) UTA | (18) UTA | 77.10% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (13) CHA @ (10) ATL | (10) ATL | 59.77% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (26) MIN @ (15) DAL | (15) DAL | 63.26% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (5) TOR @ (16) DET | (5) TOR | 54.60% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (14) POR @ (12) IND | (12) IND | 60.01% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (8) MIA @ (21) NYK | (8) MIA | 54.15% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (30) PHI @ (22) ORL | (22) ORL | 80.79% |
| Sun Feb 28 2016 | (3) CLE @ (19) WAS | (3) CLE | 58.82% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (18) UTA @ (7) BOS | (7) BOS | 63.70% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (12) IND @ (3) CLE | (3) CLE | 61.97% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (9) MEM @ (24) DEN | (9) MEM | 52.03% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (27) BKN @ (6) LAC | (6) LAC | 77.62% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (17) HOU @ (20) MIL | (20) MIL | 56.13% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (4) OKC @ (23) SAC | (4) OKC | 54.01% |
| Mon Feb 29 2016 | (30) PHI @ (19) WAS | (19) WAS | 78.10% |
The NBA Oracle was 21-17 (55.26%) in games between Thu Feb 18 and Mon Feb 22 and here is how we did in each of those games:
[64.19%]: (12) Chicago Bulls 95 @ (4) Cleveland Cavaliers 106
[53.16%]: (2) San Antonio Spurs 86 @ (6) Los Angeles Clippers 105
[52.91%]: (18) Utah Jazz 89 @ (19) Washington Wizards 103
[54.08%]: (10) Miami Heat 115 @ (8) Atlanta Hawks 111
[50.88%]: (20) New York Knicks 98 @ (27) Brooklyn Nets 109
[51.93%]: (5) Toronto Raptors 106 @ (12) Chicago Bulls 116
[76.73%]: (2) San Antonio Spurs 119 @ (29) Los Angeles Lakers 113
[67.31%]: (26) Minnesota Timberwolves 104 @ (9) Memphis Grizzlies 109
[63.33%]: (14) Charlotte Hornets 98 @ (23) Milwaukee Bucks 95
[79.88%]: (30) Philadelphia 76ers 114 @ (25) New Orleans Pelicans 121
[67.76%]: (13) Indiana Pacers 101 @ (3) Oklahoma City Thunder 98
[50.73%]: (11) Dallas Mavericks 104 @ (21) Orlando Magic 110
[53.97%]: (15) Houston Rockets 116 @ (28) Phoenix Suns 100
[62.31%]: (1) Golden State Warriors 105 @ (17) Portland Trail Blazers 137
[52.57%]: (22) Denver Nuggets 110 @ (24) Sacramento Kings 116
[50.85%]: (7) Boston Celtics 93 @ (18) Utah Jazz 111
[52.82%]: (16) Detroit Pistons 86 @ (19) Washington Wizards 98
[67.96%]: (23) Milwaukee Bucks 117 @ (8) Atlanta Hawks 109
[61.96%]: (1) Golden State Warriors 115 @ (6) Los Angeles Clippers 112
[53.65%]: (19) Washington Wizards 94 @ (10) Miami Heat 114
[54.28%]: (20) New York Knicks 103 @ (26) Minnesota Timberwolves 95
[53.26%]: (14) Charlotte Hornets 104 @ (27) Brooklyn Nets 96
[74.88%]: (29) Los Angeles Lakers 115 @ (12) Chicago Bulls 126
[80.62%]: (30) Philadelphia 76ers 103 @ (11) Dallas Mavericks 129
[59.04%]: (7) Boston Celtics 121 @ (22) Denver Nuggets 101
[70.55%]: (25) New Orleans Pelicans 111 @ (16) Detroit Pistons 106
[58.59%]: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers 115 @ (3) Oklahoma City Thunder 92
[55.10%]: (13) Indiana Pacers 105 @ (21) Orlando Magic 102
[64.42%]: (2) San Antonio Spurs 118 @ (28) Phoenix Suns 111
[62.23%]: (18) Utah Jazz 111 @ (17) Portland Trail Blazers 115
[58.67%]: (9) Memphis Grizzlies 85 @ (5) Toronto Raptors 98
[61.15%]: (1) Golden State Warriors 102 @ (8) Atlanta Hawks 92
[63.99%]: (16) Detroit Pistons 96 @ (4) Cleveland Cavaliers 88
[75.54%]: (28) Phoenix Suns 84 @ (6) Los Angeles Clippers 124
[58.86%]: (13) Indiana Pacers 93 @ (10) Miami Heat 101
[73.38%]: (29) Los Angeles Lakers 101 @ (23) Milwaukee Bucks 108
[65.41%]: (7) Boston Celtics 122 @ (26) Minnesota Timberwolves 124
[58.71%]: (5) Toronto Raptors 122 @ (20) New York Knicks 95