2016 NFL – Week 16

NFL Oracle is back in business! After an “ehh” 8-8 record during week 14, NFL Oracle went an impressive 11-5 during week 15. Making things better is the fact that all five of those incorrect picks were for games that had confidence intervals in the 50th percentile, indicating that the game could’ve been a toss-up. As it turned out, three of those five games were toss-ups, the two exceptions being the (19) Indianapolis Colts demolishing the (15) Minnesota Vikings and the (26) Carolina Panthers besting the (12) Washington Redskins; it was the latter of these two match-ups that was our previous impact game of the week. Thanks to Carolina’s win, the rest of the league benefited and saw playoff chances rise: on behalf of the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – thank you, Carolina. As for Washington, you can pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye after losing this game.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers failed to capitalize on a great opportunity to increase their playoff odds even further, as they ultimately lost a nail-biter of a game to the Dallas Cowboys. Because of this, Tampa Bay is just barely holding a favorable chance of making the playoffs, sitting at 57.3% odds. On the flip-side of the coin, Dallas remained unaffected by the outcome of this game, as they clinched a playoff spot several weeks ago.

Here is how we did predicting each game:

[69.17%]: (27) Los Angeles Rams 3 @ (7) Seattle Seahawks 24
[62.59%]: (16) Miami Dolphins 34 @ (28) New York Jets 13
[53.20%]: (19) Indianapolis Colts 34 @ (15) Minnesota Vikings 6
[51.20%]: (6) Detroit Lions 6 @ (5) New York Giants 17
[51.38%]: (23) Philadelphia Eagles 26 @ (18) Baltimore Ravens 27
[58.69%]: (17) Tennessee Titans 19 @ (2) Kansas City Chiefs 17
[70.75%]: (30) Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ (14) Houston Texans 21
[65.75%]: (13) Green Bay Packers 30 @ (29) Chicago Bears 27
[81.38%]: (32) Cleveland Browns 13 @ (20) Buffalo Bills 33
[64.57%]: (9) Pittsburgh Steelers 24 @ (25) Cincinnati Bengals 20
[55.29%]: (24) New Orleans Saints 48 @ (22) Arizona Cardinals 41
[75.14%]: (31) San Francisco 49ers 13 @ (8) Atlanta Falcons 41
[59.16%]: (3) New England Patriots 16 @ (11) Denver Broncos 3
[58.51%]: (4) Oakland Raiders 19 @ (21) San Diego Chargers 16
[56.17%]: (10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ (1) Dallas Cowboys 26
[57.10%]: (26) Carolina Panthers 26 @ (12) Washington Redskins 15

NFL Oracle Postseason Chances – Week 16

The table below shows the standard rankings we’ve been using all season long, but we’ve recently added postseason chances for all team, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Each column indicates the odds of that particular team reaching that particular level of the postseason.

Rk Team Rk Change Exp. Wins Playoffs Chance Division 1st Round Bye Super Bowl
1 DAL 13.3 100.0% 94.9% 94.9% 16.3%
2 NE 1 13.3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 27.5%
3 OAK 1 12.3 100.0% 70.3% 69.6% 6.5%
4 KC 2 11.3 99.0% 29.7% 27.3% 6.5%
5 NYG 11.3 99.7% 5.1% 5.1% 2.3%
6 SEA 1 10.8 100.0% 100.0% 65.3% 9.1%
7 ATL 1 10.3 96.3% 70.2% 27.0% 15.8%
8 PIT 1 10.3 83.1% 72.8% 3.0% 7.0%
9 DET 3 9.7 65.4% 42.9% 5.0% 1.1%
10 TB 9.3 57.3% 29.8% 1.1% 1.5%
11 GB 2 9.3 67.4% 57.1% 1.6% 2.1%
12 HOU 2 9.0 52.1% 49.7% 0.0% 0.8%
13 TEN 4 9.3 50.8% 48.5% 0.0% 0.8%
14 DEN 3 8.7 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
15 MIA 1 9.7 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%
16 WAS 4 8.5 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
17 MIN 2 8.0 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 BAL 9.0 38.8% 27.2% 0.0% 0.9%
19 IND 8.0 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1%
20 BUF 8.3 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
21 NO 3 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 CAR 4 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 SD 2 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 ARI 2 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 PHI 2 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 CIN 1 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 LA 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 NYJ 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 CHI 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 JAC 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 SF 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 CLE 0.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFL Oracle Rankings – Week 16

RankTeamRecordTrending
1Dallas Cowboys(12-2-0)--
2New England Patriots(12-2-0) 1
3Oakland Raiders(11-3-0) 1
4Kansas City Chiefs(10-4-0) 2
5New York Giants(10-4-0)--
6Seattle Seahawks(9-4-1) 1
7Atlanta Falcons(9-5-0) 1
8Pittsburgh Steelers(9-5-0) 1
9Detroit Lions(9-5-0) 3
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers(8-6-0)--
11Green Bay Packers(8-6-0) 2
12Houston Texans(8-6-0) 2
13Tennessee Titans(8-6-0) 4
14Denver Broncos(8-6-0) 3
15Miami Dolphins(9-5-0) 1
16Washington Redskins(7-6-1) 4
17Minnesota Vikings(7-7-0) 2
18Baltimore Ravens(8-6-0)--
19Indianapolis Colts(7-7-0)--
20Buffalo Bills(7-7-0)--
21New Orleans Saints(6-8-0) 3
22Carolina Panthers(6-8-0) 4
23San Diego Chargers(5-9-0) 2
24Arizona Cardinals(5-8-1) 2
25Philadelphia Eagles(5-9-0) 2
26Cincinnati Bengals(5-8-1) 1
27Los Angeles Rams(4-10-0)--
28New York Jets(4-10-0)--
29Chicago Bears(3-11-0)--
30Jacksonville Jaguars(2-12-0)--
31San Francisco 49ers(1-13-0)--
32Cleveland Browns(0-14-0)--

NFL Oracle Predictions – Week 16

DateGamesOracle_PicksConfidence
Thu Dec 22 2016(5) NYG @ (25) PHI(5) NYG50.16%
Sat Dec 24 2016(23) SD @ (32) CLE(23) SD76.86%
Sat Dec 24 2016(15) MIA @ (20) BUF(20) BUF53.08%
Sat Dec 24 2016(16) WAS @ (29) CHI(16) WAS62.48%
Sat Dec 24 2016(13) TEN @ (30) JAC(13) TEN73.32%
Sat Dec 24 2016(7) ATL @ (22) CAR(7) ATL64.50%
Sat Dec 24 2016(17) MIN @ (11) GB(11) GB53.00%
Sat Dec 24 2016(28) NYJ @ (2) NE(2) NE76.87%
Sat Dec 24 2016(10) TB @ (21) NO(10) TB55.94%
Sat Dec 24 2016(19) IND @ (3) OAK(3) OAK51.96%
Sat Dec 24 2016(31) SF @ (27) LA(27) LA55.87%
Sat Dec 24 2016(24) ARI @ (6) SEA(6) SEA59.79%
Sat Dec 24 2016(26) CIN @ (12) HOU(12) HOU51.33%
Sun Dec 25 2016(18) BAL @ (8) PIT(8) PIT58.73%
Sun Dec 25 2016(14) DEN @ (4) KC(4) KC53.24%
Mon Dec 26 2016(9) DET @ (1) DAL(1) DAL62.70%

Below is a list of this upcoming week’s match-ups. Within each of these match-ups, we’ve run 20,000 simulations for all of the possible outcomes, and how those outcomes would affect their playoff chances.

Impact game of the Week: MIA @ BUF
Among all games in the week, the results of this game will have a significant impact on the Playoff Odds across the largest number of teams.

If MIA wins If BUF wins
BUF 0.00% BUF 6.16%
MIA 90.78% MIA 37.95%
BAL 23.62% BAL 36.47%
PIT 82.48% PIT 94.41%
DEN 7.00% DEN 16.62%

Even if Buffalo manages to win this game, they still don’t have any realistic chance of making the playoffs. That being said, they can certainly still play spoiler; with a win, Miami all but clinches a playoff spot, while a loss would seemingly end their season. Baltimore and Denver are pretty much out of it at this point, but a Buffalo win would definitely keep their dreams alive, to a certain extent. As for Pittsburgh, they’ll certainly be hoping for a Buffalo win, which would make the Steelers a near-lock for the playoffs. However, if Buffalo can’t defeat Miami, Pittsburgh will still have pretty good odds of making the playoffs.


Swing games of the Week:

These are the the games where the results will have the largest swing on the Playoff Odds at least one of teams involved:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

If TB wins Curr. Odds If NO wins
TB 77.81% TB 57.97% TB 16.50%
NO 0.00% NO 0.03% NO 0.07%

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

If BAL wins Curr. Odds If PIT wins
BAL 65.17% BAL 38.83% BAL 8.15%
PIT 71.63% PIT 83.18% PIT 100.00%

Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman

 

Do you think you can pick NFL games better than the NFL Oracle?

See how you do in the NFL Oracle versus Trinity Challenge

This entry was posted in NFL. Bookmark the permalink.