Following a sub-par performance last week, NFL Oracle had a quick turnaround, producing an 8-7 record during week 7 of the 2016 NFL season. As per usual, we like to look at the games NFL Oracle predicted incorrectly, and, in this case, 4 of the 7 incorrect predictions were decided by a touchdown or less. On paper, this leads one to believe that those games were close battles that could have gone either way.
In looking back at last week’s performances, let’s begin with our nail-biter picks. Originally, we said that the (3) New England Patriots would play a close game against the (5) Pittsburgh Steelers, with the Patriots ultimately pulling out a victory. We also said that the (1) Minnesota Vikings would be narrowly edged out by the (18) Philadelphia Eagles. Well folks, we all have our weeks, and this last one for us was clearly low on coffee. The Patriots won handily, 27-16, over the Roesthlisberger-less Steelers. The Eagles gave a rude homecoming to former quarterback Sam Bradford, handing the undefeated Vikings their first loss of the season. If there is a silver lining, it is that both winners were predicted correctly, but the margin of victory was greater than anticipated.
Our low-coffee analyses continued, as our blowout match-ups turned out to be the nail-biters, with exception to the (25) Cincinnati Bengals winning 31-17 over the (32) Cleveland Browns. Don’t worry Cleveland, you’ve still got the Cavs and Indians. Of all of the incorrect picks by NFL Oracle, the one with greatest confidence level was the nearly 71% odds in favor of the (4) Buffalo Bills, who ended up losing to the (23) Miami Dolphins. However, this game was decided by a field goal, so the game was still close. That being said, the (16) Kansas City Chiefs won by 6 over the (26) New Orleans Saints. Although this game also had about 71% odds in favor of the Chiefs, it ended up being somewhat close. All-in-all, NFL Oracle was 2 for 3 on predictions that had greater than 70% confidence.
The biggest movement we saw this week belongs to the Detroit Lions, who jumped 9 spots to number 6 overall. The Broncos are creeping their way back up to the top, moving 7 spots to number 4. Helping Denver accomplish this was the Houston Texans, who fell 6 spots to number 15 after losing in Colorado. Other teams that experienced 6-spot drops were the (14) Washington Redskins and the (23) Baltimore Ravens. Also worth noting, last year’s NFC Champions are currently ranked 31st – sorry Carolina.
| Rank | Team | Record | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | (6-1-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | (5-1-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | (5-1-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | (5-2-0) | ▲ 7 |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders | (5-2-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | (4-3-0) | ▲ 9 |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | (4-1-1) | ▲ 3 |
| 8 | New York Giants | (4-3-0) | ▲ 4 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | (4-3-0) | ▼ 5 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | (4-3-0) | ▼ 5 |
| 11 | Atlanta Falcons | (4-3-0) | ▼ 5 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | (4-2-0) | ▲ 4 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | (4-2-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | (4-3-0) | ▼ 6 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | (4-3-0) | ▼ 6 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | (4-2-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Rams | (3-4-0) | ▼ 4 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | (3-3-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 19 | San Diego Chargers | (3-4-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | (3-4-0) | ▲ 3 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | (3-4-0) | ▼ 2 |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | (3-4-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | (3-4-0) | ▼ 6 |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | (3-3-0) | ▼ 2 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | (3-4-0) | -- |
| 26 | New York Jets | (2-5-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints | (2-4-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | (2-4-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 29 | Chicago Bears | (1-6-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | (1-6-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | (1-5-0) | -- |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | (0-7-0) | -- |
Blowout: The highest confidence we have this week is 79%, favoring the (2) Minnesota Vikings over the (29) Chicago Bears. There are three other games with confidence levels surpassing 70%, including the (18) Arizona Cardinals over the Panthers, the (26) New York Jets over the Browns, and the (7) Seattle Seahawks over the Saints. Don’t expect the Vikings to spiral out of control yet, and look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to redeem himself against Cleveland.
Nail-biter: The only match-up between two top-10 teams this week is between the Patriots and Bills. NFL Oracle is betting in favor of New England with 53% confidence, so expect a good game. Another game to keep an eye on is the (13) Green Bay Packers taking on the (11) Atlanta Falcons. The teams are only separated by 2 spots in the power rankings, and NFL Oracle is narrowly picking the Falcons at home, so this could be a close game as well.
Other games to pay attention to are the (5) Oakland Raiders against the (24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Lions versus the Texans. Although the power rankings heavily favor the Raiders over the Bucs, NFL Oracle says this will be a close match-up, choosing Oakland with 52% confidence. As for the Texans, NFL Oracle thinks they might rebound from the hard loss to Denver, with a 51% confidence level that they can beat Detroit in Houston.’
Don’t worry y’all, we drank our coffee this week (if our predictions are incorrect, we will claim it was decaf).
| Date | Games | Oracle_Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 27 2016 | (28) JAC @ (21) TEN | (21) TEN | 62.90% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (14) WAS @ (25) CIN | (14) WAS | 53.43% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (18) ARI @ (31) CAR | (18) ARI | 72.16% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (5) OAK @ (24) TB | (5) OAK | 51.60% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (26) NYJ @ (32) CLE | (26) NYJ | 73.20% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (7) SEA @ (27) NO | (7) SEA | 70.95% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (1) NE @ (9) BUF | (1) NE | 53.48% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (6) DET @ (15) HOU | (15) HOU | 51.39% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (12) KC @ (22) IND | (12) KC | 64.33% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (19) SD @ (4) DEN | (4) DEN | 59.23% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (13) GB @ (11) ATL | (11) ATL | 56.22% |
| Sun Oct 30 2016 | (16) PHI @ (3) DAL | (16) PHI | 55.85% |
| Mon Oct 31 2016 | (2) MIN @ (29) CHI | (2) MIN | 78.90% |
Here is a more in-depth look at the week 7 results:
[65.36%]: (30) Chicago Bears 10 @ (14) Green Bay Packers 26
[57.46%]: (12) New York Giants 17 @ (13) Los Angeles Rams 10
[65.60%]: (7) Oakland Raiders 33 @ (27) Jacksonville Jaguars 16
[50.66%]: (1) Minnesota Vikings 10 @ (18) Philadelphia Eagles 21
[55.69%]: (24) Indianapolis Colts 34 @ (19) Tennessee Titans 26
[72.11%]: (32) Cleveland Browns 17 @ (25) Cincinnati Bengals 31
[70.79%]: (4) Buffalo Bills 25 @ (23) Miami Dolphins 28
[58.21%]: (8) Washington Redskins 17 @ (15) Detroit Lions 20
[71.19%]: (26) New Orleans Saints 21 @ (16) Kansas City Chiefs 27
[55.21%]: (17) Baltimore Ravens 16 @ (28) New York Jets 24
[56.56%]: (22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 @ (29) San Francisco 49ers 17
[57.01%]: (21) San Diego Chargers 33 @ (6) Atlanta Falcons 30
[50.16%]: (3) New England Patriots 27 @ (5) Pittsburgh Steelers 16
[57.96%]: (10) Seattle Seahawks 6 @ (20) Arizona Cardinals 6
[56.47%]: (9) Houston Texans 9 @ (11) Denver Broncos 27
Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman