Happy New Year everyone! The NFL Oracle is off to a good start in 2017 going 11-5 during week 17. The NFL Oracle seems to be taking “new year, new me” seriously by improving from last weeks 9-7 performance.
The 5 games that were projected incorrectly all had confidences in the 50th percentile and one in the 60th. This is an improvement from last weeks 7 incorrect picks. The first game that was predicted wrong was (1) Dallas Cowboys vs (23) Philadelphia Eagles. The NFL Oracle had a 59.88% confidence in the Cowboys to pull off the win against the Eagles. The Cowboys were in the game till the second half then the Eagles soared ahead. However, Cowboys fans can still rest easy because this loss only pushed them to second in the postseason projections. The next highest confidence was the (21)Buffalo Bills vs (28) New York Jets with 68.48%. With the Bills losing to the Jets by 20 points it is safe to say that the NFL Oracle was slightly off on this game. The (28) Denver Broncos had a huge win over the (3) Oakland Raiders by pushing 24 points and hold them only to 6. The NFL Oracle had a 53.66% confidence in the Raiders but with this loss they move down one spot to 4 in the postseason projections. With the (2) New England Patriots win over (10) Miami Dolphins this win has pushed the Patriots ahead of the Cowboys in the postseason projections. Will this mean that we could be looking at a Cowboys vs Patriots Superbowl?
Our impact game of the week for week 17, (5) New York Giants vs (13) Washington Redskins, was predicted wrong but this wrong prediction helped 3 teams and only hurt 1. The NFL Oracle had a confidence of 50.95% in favor of Washington but the Giants won by 9 points. With the Giants win Detroit and Green Bay do not have to Stress about the making it to the playoffs. Even though they both want to win the NFC North Championship, this game will not determine the if either team makes it into a playoff spots. Washington however does not have high hope for the post season this year.
Here is how we did predicting each game:
[59.88%]: (1) Dallas Cowboys 13 @ (23) Philadelphia Eagles 27
[67.16%]: (29) Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ (19) Indianapolis Colts 24
[56.97%]: (18) Baltimore Ravens 10 @ (26) Cincinnati Bengals 27
[83.21%]: (32) Cleveland Browns 24 @ (7) Pittsburgh Steelers 27
[57.22%]: (24) Carolina Panthers 16 @ (14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
[52.36%]: (11) Houston Texans 17 @ (15) Tennessee Titans 24
[63.93%]: (30) Chicago Bears 10 @ (17) Minnesota Vikings 38
[68.48%]: (21) Buffalo Bills 10 @ (28) New York Jets 30
[64.73%]: (2) New England Patriots 35 @ (10) Miami Dolphins 14
[50.95%]: (5) New York Giants 19 @ (13) Washington Redskins 10
[64.05%]: (4) Kansas City Chiefs 37 @ (25) San Diego Chargers 27
[74.77%]: (8) Seattle Seahawks 25 @ (31) San Francisco 49ers 23
[53.66%]: (3) Oakland Raiders 6 @ (16) Denver Broncos 24
[64.93%]: (22) Arizona Cardinals 44 @ (27) Los Angeles Rams 6
[62.67%]: (20) New Orleans Saints 32 @ (6) Atlanta Falcons 38
[58.20%]: (9) Green Bay Packers 31 @ (12) Detroit Lions 24
Considering the end of Regular Season results, this was an atypical year with the Biased Voter being the best computer model and the NFL Oracle at 60.2%. Historically, the Oracle predicts better than 64%.
| Win % | Massey | Colley | B Voter | Keener | PageRank | Oracle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 159-97 | 151-105 | 160-96 | 162-94 | 154-102 | 155-101 | 154-102 |
| Accuracy | 62.1% | 59.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | 60.2% | 60.5% | 60.2% |
NFL Oracle PostSeason Projections
| Rk | Team | Conf. Finals | Conf. Champ | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 65.1% | 42.4% | 27.5% |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 65.1% | 29.6% | 15.6% |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 45.4% | 20.7% | 9.1% |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| 5 | New York Giants | 12.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | 65.1% | 42.1% | 22.0% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.3% | 19.1% | 8.2% |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 22.7% | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 22.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% |
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 12.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 12.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | 12.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
NFL Oracle Rankings – End of Regular Season
| Rank | Team | Record | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | (14-2-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | (13-3-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | (12-4-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | (12-4-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | New York Giants | (11-5-0) | -- |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | (11-5-0) | -- |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | (11-5-0) | -- |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | (10-5-1) | -- |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | (10-6-0) | -- |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | (9-7-0) | ▲ 5 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | (9-7-0) | ▲ 5 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | (9-7-0) | ▲ 2 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | (10-6-0) | ▼ 3 |
| 14 | Houston Texans | (9-7-0) | ▼ 3 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | (9-7-0) | ▼ 3 |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | (8-7-1) | ▼ 3 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | (8-8-0) | -- |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | (8-8-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | (7-9-0) | ▲ 4 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | (8-8-0) | ▼ 2 |
| 21 | Arizona Cardinals | (7-8-1) | ▲ 1 |
| 22 | New Orleans Saints | (7-9-0) | ▼ 2 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | (7-9-0) | ▼ 2 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | (6-9-1) | ▲ 2 |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | (6-10-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 26 | San Diego Chargers | (5-11-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 27 | New York Jets | (5-11-0) | ▲ 1 |
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams | (4-12-0) | ▼ 1 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | (3-13-0) | -- |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | (3-13-0) | -- |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | (2-14-0) | -- |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | (1-15-0) | -- |
NFL Oracle Predictions – Wild Card Weekend
| Date | Games | Oracle_Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 07 2017 | (4) OAK @ (14) HOU | (4) OAK | 58.50% |
| Sat Jan 07 2017 | (15) DET @ (8) SEA | (8) SEA | 61.37% |
| Sun Jan 08 2017 | (13) MIA @ (7) PIT | (7) PIT | 59.30% |
| Sun Jan 08 2017 | (5) NYG @ (9) GB | (9) GB | 53.75% |
Written and published by Tyler Caldwell and Hilary Hoffman